Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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As soon as I saw that big convective burst go by the center and persist I knew it was finally game on. Now with quickly dropping pressures and satellite presentation improving each frame, RI is for sure imminent if not already occurring.
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Talking about actual NHC advisory that decreased winds and increased pressure from previous
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Ian weakened instead of strengthening #2022
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Those models also intensified Ian sooner and lead to that more west and north track. If this more disorganized system keeps up with later strengthening or RI down the road a track like Euro will be closer and the more south and east this tracks the less it will be impacted by that shear and dry air and probably a stronger landfall
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Yea im very perplexed as to why convection isn't really taking off
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Yeah it's abysmal. And they expect RI to start later today. I'm very skeptical given the state it's in. Idk why Ian is struggling so much to get organized given it's been out of the shear plenty of time now and is in the warmest waters of the Atlantic. Just weird. Probably really won't know how much it will weaken before landfall till Ian better develops and models can grasp onto it better. I don't forsee weakening as significant as HMON and HWRF are suggesting
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Should be tropical storm train wreck instead of Ian because that's what it looks like. Lol. Tomorrow is the day NHC really expects Ian to take off but unless something majorly changes structurely I don't see it happening.
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Like people were saying before, the longer this stays weaker and disorganized the more likely it will track further south and east which also could also a stronger landfall versus the alternative quicker strengthening system that gets more west and north and weakens rapidly before landfall due to dry air and shear from incoming jet/trough.
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Thinking that dry air earlier I talked about may be part of the issue. Seems like a lot of the convection towards the west part of circulation just collapsed.
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Same here tbh. Everyone is acting like it is really starting to look good and I'm very unimpressed. I don't see anything that screams this is about to take off anytime soon. Really curious if this rapid weakening prior to landfall will come to fruition or if a much stronger storm will landfall and catch people off guard.
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Imo convection not looking so hot with Ian right now. Obviously that can change in a hurry. There is that one hot tower to the ne but that's about it for deep cold cloud tops. Swirl is becoming more apparent though.
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Never really thought dry air was ever supposed to be an issue though until closer to landfall
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Pretty good slug of dry air to nw of Ian right now. Curious if that's going to impact development despite otherwise very favorable conditions
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NHC doesn't seem to be buying the stall for now based on their track intervals and time stamps
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Lol. Would be ultimate troll after a lackluster season and all the hurricane chasers in US dying for an intercept. How likely is this stalling scenario though? Any other models showing it?
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Yeah I'm thinking this exposed one flying nw won't be the main epicenter for getting the storm going. Probably one closer to the convection
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That LLC is moving nw away from the deep convection. Earlier it was moving west just behind convection. Seems like it is really getting well removed now.
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Nice blow up of convection to the sw of the LLC on IR now. Can see swirl nice on satellite. I think we could see a depression by later tomorrow and if not for sure by Sat and possibly TS by then
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Satellite presentation has improved again. She's definitely trying
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Not sure Fiona will hit 140mph. Think max may have been reached. Not looking as great on satellite.
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Fiona starting to look sexy again on satellite
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Earl looking rough right now. That dry air did a number on the inner core. This may never hit major hurricane status now. Crazy
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Definitely think the dry air intrusion was the fly in the ointment today otherwise we would have a major hurricane by now. But it does seem that Earl may be one of those hurricanes whose dropping pressure correlates more to expanding wind field instead of strengthening winds. But it is kind of funny how it strengthened more in stronger shear.
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Was not expecting it to weaken. Esp based on satellite presentation. Best it has looked. I'm shocked. Though last few frames not as impressive as it was earlier.
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Definitely think Earl is a major hurricane now. Looks very impressive on satellite imagery.
