Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Euro still being a stubborn mule and won't budge. Here's to hoping hi res guidance is right for a change.
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Decent se jump on a lot of 06z guidance. Oh boy. Here we go. Hoping it doesn't continue on 12z runs.
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Slowly creeping north. But pretty dry like euro
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Try a flamethrower. Lol. How much did you end up with btw?
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Look at dat hodo. 1000+ SRH. Can we say snow wedges? :p someone call SyFy. Movie incoming. All jokes aside really impressive snow sounding
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03z rap ate its spinach tonight
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I think to start yes. But column will really be rapidly cooling by afternoon which should push warm nose south and east. HRRR mixes it out pretty quick in the morning. How long that transition takes will be critical to snow amounts.
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So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think.
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Just crazy how close we are to event and how far we are from a consensus. WPC definitely seems to be banking on the northern solutions. That may be an unwise decision. I mean it can go either way but the fact foreign guidance won't budge north definitely has me concerned american models are out to lunch.
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Climatology does favor it this time of year Honestly I thought so as well. My gut is saying it will track further se but I could be wrong. This does have better upper level support than last storm for a stronger more nw storm.
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Man nw trend is not being denied this time. If it keeps up I will stay all ice or end up getting all rain. Was kind of looking forward to a wind swept snow since last snowstorm was pretty windless. Hoping this can correct south a little. I'm right on the southern edge of the heaviest swath.
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I mean you got to take a blend at this point. But the difference right now days out is laughable. Really thought the sampling would help.
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Yeah that's a tough call. Getting close to that window. We are like 48hrs or so from possible wintry impacts but model agreement not the greatest. Worse than it was with GHD III at this range.
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Either GFS is really sniffing one out or it's on crack. Anyone think the heavy snow swath will be that nw? Gfs has a pretty gnarly ice storm here.
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Gfs continues to take heavy snow axis nw. Jeez. Went from double digits days ago to 1-2in now. I think it is definitely an extreme north outlier. A gfs/euro blend would yield a nam like placement.
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I'm guessing they will be north. GEFS was north of OP GFS. Just a hunch from the trends lately.
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Euro not budging. Continues to keep heavy snow swath around I70 corridor
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If I'm not mistaken, I think the energy that will be responsible for the wintry component of the storm system Thurs comes onshore sometime early tomorrow. Hopefully that sampling will help models.
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It's also nam at 84hrs. Speaks for itself. Also only out to 12z Thurs. GFS didn't really amp low till later Thurs morning into afternoon. Also seems nam may be a tad slower.
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Valid point. Though I do feel euro corrected way more than gfs did, at least for round 1. Definitely curious to see if the secondary low ends up weak and south like a few weeks ago or if this one will be more amped and nw.
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Well here it was pretty high impact. Travel was nearly shutdown. But I agree. First two definitely outshined it. I think GHD III was named more for the day it fell on not necessarily because of it's predecessors. But it still was a high impact storm for a large area of the US.
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Well gfs ended up doing well nailing the waa event being well north last time with wave 1 but this time wave 1 is going to be all rain. Wave 2 is our only hope at wintry precip and that did end up way south like euro had it so guess you're right. There are definitely similarities to GHD III but plenty of differences as well.
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Hard to ignore the consistency of GFS showing an amped system for many runs now. Snow amounts likely a bit overdone though. But man that would be a great storm with a nice swath of double digit totals and near blizzard to blizzard conditions.
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I know it's nam and it's long range for it, but certainly looking like it could do something nice at 500mb. Taking on a negative tilt in TX and closing off. I'm guessing it would be more north like GFS.
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Feel like we just saw this play out in models recently. Oh we did. GHD III. GFS was north. Euro way south and slowly came north each run. Nam looking more like GFS but curious to see more of evolution into Thurs of secondary wave.
