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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    Pretty much sounds like they will go high at some point. Parameters def support it. Storm mode is my main concern but like Quincy said, the hodos will support at least semi-discrete supercells even if shear vectors aren't completely perpendicular to initiating waa regime.
  2. Radtechwxman
    14z hrrr is a potent run. Trio of long track supercells emerging out of ne LA into central MS with some intense, long helicity tracks.
  3. Radtechwxman
    18z nam has a very concerning scenario and likely nocturnal tornado event
  4. Radtechwxman
    The sweet spot in the Delta
  5. Radtechwxman
    This thread sure is dead for a enhanced risk in late Nov. This definitely has some synoptic similarities to Dec 10, 2021. Will it be of that caliber? Probably not. But definitely bears watching.
  6. Radtechwxman
    I thought you meant for your home in Hamburg. I was like your pictures told a way different story. Lol
  7. Radtechwxman
    That's all they said for your location??
  8. Radtechwxman
    Did you mean Hamburg? Because Buffalo is currently north of the band
  9. Radtechwxman
    This is mind boggling. Metro Buffalo just getting missed
  10. Radtechwxman
    This band really flew south quick tonight. I know South Buffalo was always favored for bigger totals though. Curious when band will venture back north. Northern portions of Buffalo may be snow free a while now.
  11. Radtechwxman
    I understood what he was trying to say and still stand behind my explanation. I think the NHC knows what they're doing
  12. Radtechwxman
    We have failed Ian and this thread
  13. Radtechwxman
    Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain.
  14. Radtechwxman
    You are rarely ever going to see those measurements on land for many reasons. Most weather instruments fail before being able to reach those speeds, there often isn't weather stations in the areas that get the highest winds, and friction of land slows wind so always will be highest over water. NHC wasn't wrong with their intensity, you just won't see many reports of those high end winds but the damage will reflect it. There wasn't a ton with Michael up in that cat 4-5 range but look what it did....
  15. Radtechwxman
    He about got taken out by a big tree branch. Lol
  16. Radtechwxman
    Definitely. Impacts are the same whether it was cat 4 or 5. Absolutely devastating
  17. Radtechwxman
    150mph 940mb now. Don't think we saw a cat 5 landfall but it was real close
  18. Radtechwxman
    Prolific lightning right now in west to sw eyewall. One of the craziest I seen
  19. Radtechwxman
    Yeah I'm skeptical of any major increases in strength. Esp now that it has increased in size. The pressure drops later could go more into expanding wind field instead of strengthening it, at least initially. Not saying 130 isn't achievable but thinking 120-125 is more likely.
  20. Radtechwxman
    That's kind of conflicting based on satellite presentation improving. Interesting. I guess still residual effects from EWRC. May be a while before we see any intensification or maybe not potentially. Radar presentation now is amazing and lightning going nuts in sw eyewall
  21. Radtechwxman
    SE eyewall convection not overly impressive right now potentially leftover effects from EWRC or possible dry air intrusion. However, lightning ramping up in southern and northern eyewall.
  22. Radtechwxman
    EWRC looks almost complete. At least from radar perspective. Eye has filled in on IR satellite for now. Satellite presentation has temporarily degraded some but could see it start improving as it reorganizes overnight. Shear is the potential fly in the ointment. I'm thinking winds might be down on next recon and pressure either steady or up.
  23. Radtechwxman
    What site do you get these on? Been trying to find it. I just tried address under picture and it didn't work
  24. Radtechwxman
    EWRC looks well underway on radar with secondary eyewall really enveloping inner eyewall with degradation of inner eyewall seen. Pretty impressive if we're still seeing pressures dropping that much with this occurring.
  25. Radtechwxman
    I totally agree and wasn't trying to bash them in anyway. Very tough forecast they had for strength and track. That was just my opinion.
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