Radtechwxman

Hoping that isn't just a tease. Hrrr/rap are good at luring you in then tear out your heart strings. Lol

12z nam still a decent hit here with 1st wave but it ends it early compared to other guidance. Nam also misses my area with 2nd wave which honestly wouldn't shock me. Hrrr/rap are being consistently more aggressive with 1st wave lasing longer here and also getting me more into 2nd wave. Million dollar question is would you trust it? I'm definitely skeptical.

Definitely looking like a one wave show for me now but 1st wave looks like it could really deliver big. Hopefully the banding will setup over me. Some models have it really close. Most models barely skirt my area now with 2nd wave. A bit disappointing because I was excited for 2 huge waves of heavy snow but I will take what I can get. Hoping I can still break double digits. It will be close. Some sharp gradients near me. Sharp cutoffs nw and sharp increases se. Movements in track either way will drastically change my outcome. Forever riding the line here. Someday I will be in the jackpot zone again. Ha

I knew I shouldn't have got excited yesterday. Man these trends today have me greatly concerned. I'm glad gfs and euro still look good here but concerned nam is shifting so south. However, it is nam so take it with a grain of salt.

Just hoping models either hold where they are or bump slightly north again. I'm on northern fringes of heaviest snow swath. Anymore southern shifts and my totals will decrease drastically. Definitely nerve-wracking

Like I told you before, you're golden. Enjoy it. You're getting Appreciate the vote in confidence

Good ol' model emotional whiplash. Some models north, others south. Definitely a little nervous a south trend may continue again. Hoping at this point it will be just be small bumps north or south. I haven't had double digit snow in a while now. This looks like my best shot.

LOL. I wouldn't worry man. I honestly still think you're fine man. Don't let NAM worry you. GFS and Euro wallop you. I wouldn't be shocked if this trends south again. Anything is still on the table. I still think you're in a better position than me imo.

I would sell my soul for 0z nam to verify. But it's long range nam so I know it's unlikely and it loves to overamp systems. At this point any one model solution is still possible but definitely a north trend today. Curious to see if this holds tomorrow or if we go back to shifting south again. This system is whiplash on my emotions. Lol

Why does gfs have to tease me like this? Lol. RC had incredible afd highlighting best and worse case scenarios here. Definitely nervous about the PV anomaly and northern stream wave racing ahead leading to a more shunted 2nd wave and potentially even 1st wave. Liking the trends today and hoping they continue.

Now that looks better. I'm super excited for you man. You're going to get

Meanwhile WPC keeps shifting their highest probabilities for snow se. They might have to reverse that if trends continue. This seems a little too se imo

Now that's what I like to see. I still get double digit totals and you central IL to central IN folk who have been deprived all winter get crushed.

Canadian isn't as spread the wealth as other models but glad it came north. Hopefully the trend continues. Nam looks like it has potential but I never trust nam at this range. Lol

Are you throwing in the towel now? Don't give up on me yet. If you give up, I will. I'm trying to give it till Mon. But would like to see some model support in favor of GFS. Odds definitely seem against us.

The only thing making me feel a little better in a potential GFS solution is the fact that the OP and ensembles have been in relatively good agreement for days with minimal north to south shifts. Euro is having drastic shifts run to run as Stebo pointed out. Just would be nice to see some model support for it.

You're not lying, wagons south. Geez

Which model has performed the best this winter? Honestly curious. Feel like CMC hasn't been doing great

Well GFS seems to be on a lonely island right now. Even though it's been pretty consistent overall, would like to see support from other models.

I think you're sitting pretty for this. Because you get hit hard on the more northern GFS and the more southern Euro. Happy for you. I know you are long overdue. Just hope it isn't a complete miss here. I hope I can at least cash in nice on first round of overrunning precip but would be nice to get the main event wed into thurs as well like gfs has but not holding my breath. Ha

Not surprised. By tomorrow it will have the snow shield on Gulf coast then up to Canadian border. It had today's nor'easter out to sea a few days out. Lol

Where can you see the EPS runs?

This to the nth degree. Lol

Yeah unfortunately I wouldn't be shocked to see the south trend continue. I mean missed the last storm nw so might as well miss one se now. Ha. Hoping it can come back north some but it's going to be limited because of that arctic high.

Well heavy snow swath ended up a lot more than a tick south. Man that was a painful run. Going to absolutely suck to miss out on this if I do because it's going to be close and whoever gets in on this will probably see some impressive double digit totals. Going to be a long few days.....