Radtechwxman

So are we now not going to get an actual data now before landfall?

You're right it doesn't technically matter if we know the true strength but I am very curious. Pretty confident it's stronger than what the 4pm forecast stated. Hopefully we can get a recon in there before it landfalls and weakens.

Goni has definitely degraded quite a bit on satellite in its inner core. Curious what the intensity is now

That island definitely impacted Goni. Eye has shrink considerably after passage over it. Hopefully this can bring the intensity down some but regardless this will still be a catastrophic cat 4-5 across the Philippines

It's too bad there aren't recon planes to collect data in west Pacific especially since they get hit by some of the strongest tropical systems on earth. Would love to get some actual wind and pressure data from this. Probably no instrument on that island, if there even is one, wouldn't survive long enough to get the max winds and lowest pressures. Eye seems to have shrunk on latest satellite after interacting with the island. Might see intensity level off or even drop off but that's not saying much from 195mph. Truly some of the most incredible satellite imagery I seen next to Haiyan and Patricia.

Could be waiting on new dropsonde data. But it probably won't be enough. It sure has that look. Satellite presentation still improving as it landfalls. Craziness

Latest NHC full forecast out. 110mph and 970mb. Everyone freak out. It wasn't upgraded to cat 3! OMG!!!!

A 5mph difference between 110 and 115 isn't going to be hardly any different in impacts. Now if you're talking like 120-125 that's different

Why do you keep arguing this? Clearly if NHC thought this they would update the intensity. But could be a Michael like situation where it's so close to landfall that they aren't wanting to cause panic. Michael had cat 5 winds prior to landfall and they didn't upgrade it. Could be same with this. Maybe afraid they would cause panic if it suddenly hit major hurricane at landfall. Regardless of it being high end cat 2 or low end cat 3 this will have the same impacts

This isn't a cat 3 till NHC calls it officially. Curious if it upgrades in the last hr before landfall

Time is running out fast for it to hit cat 3. Forward motion is fast. I think maybe 110mph max landfall. Still very impressive. A lot like Sally that was quickly intensifying at landfall

I due really think that jet to the north is leading to this quick intensification prior to landfall. That northern outflow channel has really be enhanced by the jet. Great evacuation occurring and just enough warm water to provide favorable support for strengthening

100mph 975mb! Wow

Zeta has improved once again on satellite. Nice CDO with more symmetrical cold cloud tops surrounding core. Eye is trying to pop again on visible. I'm thinking this will landfall at 90mph or possibly a bit stronger based on how it's looking

NHC kept it at 90mph and lowered pressure a few mb. Have it maintaining 90mph into landfall

Based on satellite presentation I think our strengthening may be done. Cold cloud tops not completely around core like they were last night and the eye has disappeared. I think the fast forward motion will limit weakening but I do think it could come down in intensity some and landfall like 80-85. I don't think we will make 100 like NHC was saying. Regardless still a very impressive turn around in a short amount of time.

I really thought we would have hurricane status back on this advisory. Regardless it is drastically improving structure and intensification should continue overnight. NHC wasn't ruling out more robust intensification based on Zeta's structure, the environment, and past hurricanes with similar structure/conditions.

I was thrown by that myself. It's rapidly organizing for sure. Probably will see pressure drop and winds bump up quite a bit overnight

Definitely the best Zeta has looked since it came off the Yucatan. Major convective burst that's trying to wrap around the LLC. Curious to see how strong it will get the next 24hrs while it's in the best conditions for strengthening

That certainly has dropped from earlier and honestly not surprised given how it looks

My exact thinking. The circulation is broad and the core took a hard hit over land. On visible the LLC can be seen pretty exposed. Zeta has a lot of work to do. Dry air really has worked in. It definitely has ripe conditions for strengthening but will it organize in time to take advantage of the environment. I'm feeling doubtful with it's current structure and lack of very deep convection near LLC. Only time can tell but I agree if this were better organized a more significant hurricane would be possible but imo the ceiling is probably a strong cat 1 unless it rapidly gets itself together tonight.

Well NHC had the intensity at cat 3 but probably wasn't looking at the satellite and wind data. Guessing it will landfall at 100-105

Carl Parker on TWC just said hurricane hunters getting much lower winds than 115mph in northern eyewall. Guessing we see a downgrade to cat 2 at 1pm

Shear isn't even to it yet. Just normal fluctuations in convection. Delta will be outrunning the better oceanic heat content soon

By far best Delta has looked its whole life