Radtechwxman

We just can't shake these ne troughs this year. Really creating a lot of downstream blocking. Long range gfs digs a major trough into the ne and a ridge builds in the central US as another trough digs into west coast. This omega block would definitely significantly lower severe wx chances. Just can't seem to shake eastern troughing this year. I only have between May 14 and June 1 to chase and I'm not feeling very optimistic right now.

Definitely disappointing to see a trough get sheared out and cutoff during peak season. Crazy how bad this has trended from days ago. Went from a strong negative tilt to a strung out positive tilt that cuts off an upper low. I really hope May can turn things around but I must say not liking the look of long range. Obviously that can and will change. Look how much Tues has changed. I'm starting to wonder if this will be another season of failed big setups with days that look marginal overperforming. I mean that's not bad as long as we get some nice tornadoes like the other day.

Not digging the look of upper air pattern in medium to long range. The trough next week has really trended to a more sheared out positive tilt that eventually cuts off an upper low. Long range gfs builds in a big ridge west and trough east that eventually turns into an omega block. Euro doesn't go out as far as gfs but it also looked to be building a pretty substantial ridge. Obviously this can and will change as models do but definitely discouraging to see.

Yeah early to mid April definitely looks to be pretty stagnant. Hopefully we see a pattern shift mid to late April. Just always concerning when you see these patterns in peak tornado months. Getting flashbacks of last year.

Man if you're wanting an active severe wx pattern for April, GFS is not the outcome you want to see. Forms a massive omega block after the first week of April and persists well into mid April. Euro didn't look as blocky. Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch.

Is there a rating yet on the Greensboro tornado that went through Brent and Centreville?

Yeah I think there was one death with that tornado. That outbreak definitely overperformed with several intense tornadoes esp at dusk or after dark. I was thinking the same thing. I saw a few pictures where houses were leveled and partially swept off foundation. Those were nicer homes to so guessing it would be properly anchored.

Looks like preliminary high end EF3 for Newnan

I definitely think the weaker low was a big factor for MS. It strengthened very slow and not nearly as deep as it progged days ago. This led to weaker winds at sfc and not really backed with limited pressure falls. The early wave of storms to really messed with the wind field in MS. Subsidence behind it likely lead to the clearing and deeper mixing. This contributed to the veered sfc flow in addition to weaker sfc low. Just like last week, wind field was better across AL with S to SE winds. I think even if the EML wasn't as strong, MS storms may still have struggled to produce significant tornadoes with less directional shear in the low levels.

Was wondering the same thing. I don't get it

So definitely could be higher then. I'm no damage expert obviously. Just going off what I seen in the past. Miracle there hasn't been mass fatalities reported given the timing and how severe the damage is. Advanced warning time saved many lives.

That definitely looks like solid EF3 damage in spots. Maybe even mid to high range EF3 in spots.

TWC just confirmed 1 fatality in Newnan. Hopefully there won't be anymore.

Yep....

Yeah I'm getting busty vibes further west. This is evolving more like 0z hrrr showed. The deepening low was key today and it hasn't really done that much. Hard to say if something major will evolve later or if this will be it....

Yeah this is definitely holding back the threat in MS so far. Sfc winds veered. I think a cap has built in to. Jet streak still seems to be hanging back west so curious in a few hours if that will deepen the low, improve sfc flow, and help to break the cap west. This has been a very sloppy evolution so far.

Definitely thought the same thing. SPC and NWS not too optimistic about the threat but I think at some point there will be a slight risk. 3km nam looks nice. Arc of storms by 18z that moves into central IL through 0z.

Anyone have an eye on the cold core severe potential on Tues? Some impressive cold temps aloft right over central IL. Instability doesn't look great but that could improve as we get closer. Even if it doesn't, I could see some tornado potential being possible with low topped supercells.

Not that this will be anything of the caliber of the Easter outbreak last year but I'm getting vibes mostly with the messy evolution and later ejecting trough. Definitely plenty of red flags like a weak cap in warm sector with numerous storms going, better shear holding off till llj goes nuts at 0z, a later in day trough ejection, lapse rates sufficient but not quite as steep as they were days ago, and seeing some VBV in soundings. I could see a scenario where near the warm front and south sees numerous rounds of severe storms with some tornado threat albeit messy and instability really builds in south of this. As that speed max pushes out, may see a few rogue cells fire in northern Louisiana into southern Mississippi and go nuts in a very sheared and moderately unstable atmosphere. 0z hrrr was hinting at this idea. Definitely will be a nowcasting situation. I wouldn't go high risk tonight but if things looked better for an enhanced corridor of significant tornado potential could always add a small high risk area tomorrow. Regardless of whether there will be discrete supercells with significant tornado potential, I do feel confident in a QLCS with significant tornado potential given the shear magnitude after 0z.

Yeah I chased that day and the high risk the next day which was a much more significant outbreak with multiple long track strong to violent tornadoes. It's a good thing that storm today stayed away from major population areas. That would have been a catastrophe.

Definitely did not rival a high risk day. Yes that storm was very impressive but that was the only truly cyclic beast of the day. Yes there were other tornadoes but were relatively short lived and not long tracked.

Outside the Happy, TX storm today wasn't overly eventful from a tornado standpoint. I think that storm having more deviant motion off the front really enhanced its tornado potential. Other storms large paralleled the boundary and inflows were consistently getting contaminated by the next storm down the line. I think slower movement of cutoff low which isn't surprising lead to the flow paralleling the boundary instead of it being more orthogonal to it. Storms really struggled to get east off it into open warm sector. The best instability ended up setting up west where cirrus thinned sooner. Low level lapse rates and sfc based cape were not overly impressive in the eastern panhandle. Not a bad chase day for March but hopefully this season we can see some quality warm sector storms that aren't an HP mess in the Plains. Definitely a tricky chase today. Lots of storms to choose from.

Nice catch man!

People get butthurt really easily in this forum. Lol. Was simply voicing my opinion and observations. Idc what the outlook is. I look at the meteorology not the SPC outlook. But was stating where the significant tornado happened earlier on was on the edge or possibly outside the 15 hatched but doesn't really matter. Just an observation. Calm down everyone. Lol

Well given that storm mode is significantly less discrete than it was earlier may not see like we did earlier with that storm. Not saying significant tornadoes can't happen in the moderate risk. Just seems like now the supercells are merging largely. But will likely still see spin ups given the shear. Could be more QLCS related though. We shall see. I was just expecting what happened further west to happen more so to the east. That's what I was getting at. Still somewhat semi discrete mode. I think even if it goes linear there will still be plenty of strong rotations within it.