Watch this secondary low follow the same path the Christmas Eve/Christmas day storm followed. That ridging to the east will be critical in determining if this is more of a GL cutter or an App runner. Definitely will be interesting to see what evolves as this trough is impressive.
I'm honestly surprised how east the secondary low goes with how the upper levels look. You would think this could trend west given how wrapped up it gets
Nice to see euro on board with robust secondary low development. But I'm feeling that the first wave will miss me to west with snow and second wave east. Sounds about right. Obviously it's early and track is far from locked in but that's typical luck for my area. Lol
Euro definitely took a big step towards GEM but like hawkeye stated, it wraps it up later and the front end hit isn't as aggressive as GEM. Chicago area could luck out on this one esp with secondary low development.
I see 12z gfs looks a lot like euro now with a way west cutter. Joy. The year going out with the 2020 trend....CRAP. Hoping we can trend back to at least a decent front end thump but I'm not holding my breath.
THIS. Lol. I like the active pattern with powerhouse storms but definitely would like to see the storm track shunted more south and east. Cold rain is no beuno
0z model suite so far is about as encouraging as this year has been. Never was expecting much from this but was keeping a glimmer of hope because of euro. But everything is slowly caving to GFS. At least the pattern looks somewhat active after this wannabe storm.
Euro definitely caved from a sfc perspective towards GFS. Honestly think we will see a lot of flip flopping this week until the energy gets better sampled. Nam has a more euro look but it's also Nam at 84hrs. I'm not getting my hopes up for any snow at this point.
Only negative to experiencing something this high end is that next snowstorm when you only get 1-2in/hr rates or less you will be like meh. Be like man I only got 12in in 12hrs instead of 2-3 hrs. Super lame. Lol
The more intense portion of this band seems to be refocusing now by Oneonta and just northwest. So instead of 5-6in/hr near Binghamton it may only be 2-3in/hr now. Lol. I'm shocked a band this intense and with so much frontogenic forcing hasn't produced some thundersnow. Could be because the sfc temps are very cold. Probably would be more likely if temps were in upper 20s or low 30s.
That has to be a record. Very rare you get this kind of qpf in air this cold. Probably one of if not the most incredible synoptic mesoscale bands I ever seen. Rare you get snowfall rates like this in general esp outside of LES bands. Snow ratios are probably ridiculous right now.
Overall CDO seems to have warmed some but man that lightning in the southern to southwest eyewall has been relentless. Not sure this will hit cat 5 before landfall though.