LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Very true, on day 7 or 8 out of 12 after sandy I abandoned my house and went and stayed with my grandma in queens. The air temp in the house had dropped to like 50 degrees and it was only going down. That’s when the buzz from the storm wore off and it just sucked. -
Kicking the can as always. Honestly without a SSW or something or that magnitude, it’s best just to not look at the long range and enjoy the holidays. Strong/super nino climo is pretty much a lock for a warm December.
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Mega pacific jet streak will do that. Closing the shades until that changes. Strong nino December, par, for the course.
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Getting a couple house shakers now. Definitely over 40mph.
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Pretty meh in sw Nassau. next batch of rain looks legit. That’s where some real deal flooding could happen. Winds will be run of the mill low end advisory.
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Bingo. This is super important. If those years during a much cooler period were snowless, then what hope do we have now. I’m sticking to my guns if anything happens it’s in the Jan 15-Feb 15 period
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T-minus 5 minutes from attack from mjo812 This is to be expected with a strong nino. This winter is going to happen from Jan 15 to feb 15
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Par for the course. If I had to bet right now, this winter is Jan 15-feb 15. Nino is going to nino. I still like us for getting to at least normal, but it all happens in that span.
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That’s the thing, your going past Calc 3, and into the world of differential equations and discrete math. My roommate in college was a math wiz and couldn’t handle discrete math. It’s when the formulas fill the blackboard. That’s really what it takes for a meteo degree. Personally I think it’s super archaic. Understanding the bigger picture should be what it takes, not doing equations with a slide rule.
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Awesome, that was my dream as kid, but I do not have the math skills for a meteorology degree. It’s basically a math degree. I was able to pull off a bs In economics however. And that degree tells me, that, the salary sucks. Who can afford to live on Long Island with that salary range. (Not putting anyone down if you make less then that)
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I’d take March 1888 over that in a heartbeat. Hands down the greatest blizzard in our region in the last 200 years. Based on what I have read the snow in the park was way under measured. It was likely our largest total of all time using modern measuring. The pics of tunnels cut through drifts in Brooklyn are on a level we have never seen. Hurricane force gusts and 30”+ totals.
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That’s partially true. It’s rare we have a snowstorm where it’s snowing in the teens. Arctic air usually means clear skies and strong CAA. You really want to be right on the boundary where it’s just cold enough.
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I never like to see Alaska consistently cold. I’m willing to toss December, went into it with that thinking based on Nino climo. Jan/feb have potential. Wether they really produce or are just average may come down to if we see a SSW event.
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Not sure why you you’re not grasping what I’m saying. Pre 1980s there was significantly more sea ice in the fall then there is now. As the summer melt out now exposes more area to solar insulation. Thus warmer fall/early winter temps in the Arctic our obvious cold air source. The Arctic Ocean still freezes over each winter though, and the darkness allows to cold to reload later in the winter. Thus exposing us to better source airmass’s later in the winter.
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Had a nice burst of snow on the uws, more than just flurries for a couple minutes.
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Windmill palms native to the Himalayas are the only true palms that can handle our winters. Hardy down to around 0. So back in the 80s they weren’t yet viable. If we get to the point that our lowest possible winter temps are like 20, then allot more options will be available. So sometime late this century NYC will really become a palm city. You see allot of palms in coastal SE England where that’s always been the case.
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I think it’s a feedback do to lack of sea ice. Once the Arctic freezes back over, cold air is able to build. I think it’s at least part of why we have been seeing winters become increasingly backloaded.
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March 93 and the December 92 nor’easter are the first storms I have real solid memories of being 10 and 11. Living near the bay both storms had major coastal flooding. 93 caused mini icebergs to from and float around in the surge, which all froze solid after. Plows didn’t have a chance and I vividly remember them using a bulldozer to plow the ice at my elementary school. Were we were sledding after the storm.
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Exactly. As far as I’m concerned we are doing just fine with a strong Nino. Could easily be endless 50s/60s. And anything will be better than last winter. Even if we only make it to average it will seem great.
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This what I normally do, I dig out, pot and overwinter inside, but that’s not necessary anymore.
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I have achieved success of making elephant ear plants (colocosia) perennial on the uws. These are true tropical plants native to SE Asia. They have some cold hardiness, but like Carolina coast zone 8. The past three winters they have survived and come back after cutting back and burying in mulch. I use it as a teaching tool for my Barnard/Columbia garden club as well as school groups from Harlem. It’s a great example of our zones changing rapidly.
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I fully agree. This in no way mirrors 97/98 so far. That really was the worst winter of all time, forgetting about the 5” that fell in one shot in March and melted in ten minutes. I like what I see for at least getting back to near normal. If we get a Jan 16 type event, then obviously we could go well above.
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One would certainly hope surpassing last year is a lock. I mean statistically it nearly is. But anything is possible in a climate changing so fast.
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Excellent response. I find volcanoes incredibly fascinating. It’s, in my opinion the only reliable chance we have at seeing a real NYC old winter in our lifetimes. (The others being truly awful, meteor/comet strike or nuclear winter). I don’t wish anything truly apocalyptic, like Yellowstone going off. Or any population center close super volcanos either. Let’s say a VIE 7 in an extremely remote location.
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I might now be as on par with volcanos as yourself, I’m more of a wave/hurricane guy, so I have to ask what do you think the reoccurrence rate is of a Tambora event? My favorite is 542AD the mother of them all during civilization. Great docs on that one.
