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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The 12Z Euro if you view 3 hour increments basically has current scenario nailed...showed 15-18z as crazy for the metro...18-21 as bad N NJ and SW then the CCB dies slowly 21-00Z over NNJ SRN NY and E PA...it does hint that Queens/Nassau might continue seeing bands try to redevelop and keep accumulations going but light
  2. SnowGoose69
    .22 at NYC last hour so they’re at least at 15.5. Problem is if they dry slot or go to sleet it’ll compact and they’ll end up with an inaccurate measurement at 7pm. That’s irrelevant in regards to the storm record since they wouldn’t get there anyway if that happens but it could still cause an erroneous storm total
  3. SnowGoose69
    Central Park 13.3 total. 11.3 today
  4. SnowGoose69
    The GFS is getting a better idea but it still keeps trying to pump the SE ridge at times while the CMC and Euro at the same time periods are flatter. It’s really bizarre to see the cold bias model do that but it’s had issues all winter trying to pump that SE ridge at times
  5. SnowGoose69
    Daily snow record for Central Park today is 9.8 from 1934, that will fall easily
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it would take a mega band. Today’s daily total will be top 5-10 for sure too. Storm total was 5.3 as of 7am and daily total 3.3....since then they’ve had .45, .18 last hour alone. I would say they have a storm total of around 10.5-11 now and daily total of 8-9
  7. SnowGoose69
    The NYC ASOS reported .03 in 11 minutes to start the hour. That’s probably a 4 inch per hour rate if you assume we a tad better than 10:1 right now....bad math....3
  8. SnowGoose69
    The Euro caught this on most of its recent runs. The period from 05-10Z was going to be fairly quiet.
  9. SnowGoose69
    No. The system occludes as well as the flow aloft being almost entirely NNE off land at that stage with no Atlantic moisture influx. You also will have probably poisoned the mid levels with some milder temps leading to poor snow growth. Some isolated areas of accumulating snow will happen later tomorrow night and early Tuesday but over 1-2 inches additional accumulation won’t occur many places at all
  10. SnowGoose69
    It took forever to start snowing up here. There’s probably as much as 3-5 inches in southern Brooklyn and Staten Island too I’m sure
  11. SnowGoose69
    As of midnight JFK 0.7 LGA 1.2 NYC 2.0 EWR 2.2...the ratios based on the LEs were over 15:1
  12. SnowGoose69
    The dry slot will get close. All models sort of show that. At any given point late tonight and most of tomorrow NYC might only be 30-50 miles on a line north of the dry slot
  13. SnowGoose69
    All the parameters argue heaviest snow likely is in a corridor across north central Westchester-Rockland-northern Bergen and Passaic and west. Their positioning coupled with snow growth and being right near that -4C 850 isotherm tells me somewhere in that area gets 3-5 inches an hour for a time tomorrow
  14. SnowGoose69
    You can see that typical dry push now on radar....snow advancing further NE in NJ west of EWR with that usual struggle zone right near SI where that dry air funnels down from CT. Probably will see snow in FWN before it snows at LGA/JFK
  15. SnowGoose69
    I think what will happen is that next band over WNJ might briefly give the area some light snow 19-21Z which will then stop with the main area moving in 23-00
  16. SnowGoose69
    NJ traffic cams show snow already near Perth Amboy
  17. SnowGoose69
    I cannot tell on tropical tidbits if the 3km NAM is trying to show sleet 09-14Z near NYC or the color algorithm is trying to just snow very heavy snow
  18. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR has 22-23Z start in NYC, the 3km NAM is 02Z because it clearly sees that typical dry push on the NE flow that comes down from New England into the metro. That same push doesn’t usually funnel as effectively west of Newark or put across LI so those areas can often start snowing earlier and also see heavier rates earlier as they’ll saturate faster
  19. SnowGoose69
    The forecast was 3-6 I think. The problem was it was a Friday night preceding a 3 day weekend so many people were out and also many didn’t leave work early. That was a ground breaking event for the models though because when the 00Z runs came in that night they initialized and caught the busting forecast which was the first case really ever where models in the middle of the storm adjusted for a significant error
  20. SnowGoose69
    LOL. That’s like 12/30/00 again
  21. SnowGoose69
    See my post about 1983...similar type setup with that east inflow and Allentown saw 5 inches an hour and 15 in 4 hours I think
  22. SnowGoose69
    This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate. The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Guaranteed that snow Tuesday has some areas of decent rates in it. It won’t be 1 plus an hour but typically those areas even in a system undergoing occlusion end up a bit better than modeled a lot of the time
  24. SnowGoose69
    It’s usually fairly easy to determine if someone banned has come back unless they moved. I was banned from a forum years ago and every time I signed up again I got banned within a week because the moderator could tell I was posting from the same location
  25. SnowGoose69
    The GFS if you look at numericals tries turning the wind 080-090 at JFK/LGA. It cannot pick up the damming effect you get with the high over Canada and does this with every snow event. The Euro and NAM more correctly show the 040-060 wind
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