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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    It’s hard to tell with these systems that are this far north and impact us up here. The IR sat can look bad while the inner core is actually improving
  2. SnowGoose69
    Even on the Euro which for some reason wants to go crazy now with an ET transition you only have 925s mid 30s to low 40s in that area which who knows how well it mixes down on west side of storm
  3. SnowGoose69
    The NAM likes the crazy sting jet tomorrow evening. Has 25025G40KT for JFK...I just don't think that happens though unless the track comes in more into the heart of Suffolk.
  4. SnowGoose69
    UKMET might have come a bit west of 00Z but certainly nothing like 12Z yesterday.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The rainfall axis is real tricky. Models do not typically handle it well...it always reverts to the W side but is it the SW side, the W side, the NW side? The Euro has been most consistent in showing it fairly even on the W side overall while other guidance has varied between W and more into W CT and SE NY while keeping the metro and W LI drier
  6. SnowGoose69
    the best one I saw today was the News station here on LI showing the 06z nam wind speeds and track. I mean is that deliberate to get ratings and wows or was it purely the meteorologist not knowing you never should use the NAM for tropicals or use what was the notable outlier for a model cycle but that just made me boil because I got like 5 phone calls afterwards from people in NYC thinking they’d see 60mph gusts
  7. SnowGoose69
    At this stage I don’t think it makes much of a difference. It might mean instead of MTP it ends up over HTO. It would need to get to 90-100 mph plus probably for the strength to have any markedly noticeable track shift
  8. SnowGoose69
    It’s showing up on every model but the track would likely have to be over central LI or west for it to be of any consequence for areas in the metro or Nassau county. Otherwise they’ll just see WSW winds of 10-20mph
  9. SnowGoose69
    I think at 8am or 11am it is but 37.5N is about the point where SSTs fall below 80F. It’s got maybe 15 hours at most
  10. SnowGoose69
    HMON and HWRF basically unchanged outside of noise from prior runs
  11. SnowGoose69
    I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in. Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod. It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time
  12. SnowGoose69
    It was stronger with winds near the center this run but more compact with the wind field and notably faster. Landfall point appeared same as 18z
  13. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, in all seriousness if lets say 65% of the twin forks loses power you don't want to be one of those 30-40K who might go out in Nassau or W Suffolk because due to strain on staff you could be out 2-3-4 days probably when ordinarily that many out in an area is likely 12-18 hours at worst, more likely 6-8.
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it was strange...it was not a big move west though...they did not even really mention it in the discussion. I felt they'd hold it where it was.
  15. SnowGoose69
    Intensity forecasts are a pain but I was surprised a bit NHC moved the track west at 11pm. I was not at all understanding of why they did that based off the 18Z guidance, obviously they had no reliable 00z models yet at that point
  16. SnowGoose69
    Alot of the time the 60-84 period is one of over correction and then you flip back a bit the other way. It’s probably going to be a twin forks or just east landfall
  17. SnowGoose69
    Ended up close to the HMON
  18. SnowGoose69
    HMON seems to be coming back to the party vs New Jersey
  19. SnowGoose69
    As I posted earlier...we've had many cases the last decade of storms in that area that head up towards SNE and then OTS which we thought would strengthen and never did....part of it is every time the window is short, like 24-48 but in each case it feels like the centers were not aligned and when you're trying to get that in addition to RI in a 36-48 hour span its tough. I think it still makes it to 75-80 at some point but not sure it gets beyond that
  20. SnowGoose69
    Irene was like only a 60-65mph system and NHC did not want to have people let their guard down the final 12-24 so they just kept it at 70 or 75 (I think it was 75). This will be the first true LF tropical up here though since Irene really. Isiaish and Sandy were hybrids or transitioners.
  21. SnowGoose69
    I'm somwhat inclined to toss the UKIe idea of the wild west bend though. I think like those HURR models and the Euro its more likely to come in on a 330-340 angle somewhere and hold to that idea. The pattern to me does not support anything otherwise unless it becomes a cat 2 or3
  22. SnowGoose69
    Thats the best agreement yet if you do not count those HMONers into NJ
  23. SnowGoose69
    If you exclude the HMON lookalikes thats the best agreement yet on those ones near MTP
  24. SnowGoose69
    Thats basically the first model to shift east in 36 hours but given the WAR I feel that is too east...maybe only by 20-30 miles but right now I still say this comes in near HTO or a bit west.
  25. SnowGoose69
    On tropicals who knows. The new GFS has tended to have less of an east bias overall. I do think its idea of a straight in due N movement is wrong...there will be some sort of NW movement. That is why I think I go with an LF right now near E Quogue to Hampton Bays.
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