SnowGoose69

If you look at the 06Z GFS and 00Z Euro there really is not even any spot in the Midwest or Lakes which sees epic snows, the GFS simply occludes too quickly and the Euro is just a tad too progressive and then also semi occludes...it may ultimately be somewhere like STL or Peoria who sees the biggest amounts, Indy may snow forever once they get rid of the rain or mix but it may not be heavy by that point

Yeah that isn't a setup where this area sees rain to snow...there are only 2 or 3 setups where that happens and this is not one of them. The closed 500 low like 2/8/13 or 12/25/02 is the most common although the 2 setups were not exactly the same as one was a Miller B and the other was really a strange hybrid, I would not call Christmas 02 a Miller A or B. The other setups are all similar and usually involve some type of surface low formation on a front and require a negative tilt or semi stall...this thing is just progressing too fast

I find it funny that even Detroit and Indianapolis are mostly rain now

It has less influence in the summer months somewhat than it does in winter, you get patterns and teloconnections lining up differently. Also no idea if the inevitable flip to a cold AMO may cool those waters

The ridge IMO was just too far west...we have had big snows from ridges on or off the W Coast but more often later in winter, with a broad/elongated PV that extends from MB to QC, or with the whole pattern breaking down or about to break down and the ridge progressing east with time...I noted both 1/7/96 and 2/16/03 as cases where the ridge was too far west as the pieces began coming together but the Pac was in the process of being about to blast the nation so the whole pattern was shifting east with time and by the time the phasing was beginning the ridge was over the rockies

Really the GEFS only was correct about the pattern switch really happening closer to 12/15 vs 12/10, after that it was sort of owned by the GEPS/EPS, I posted in the SNE thread I'd feel better about January right now as the GEPS/EPS show a +PNA by D14-16 while the GEFS wants to go -PNA...the GEFS failed miserably about 10-12 days ago saying the 12/20-12/25 period would be a -PNA while the EPS/GEPS had it positive

The question is does Canada really torch as fast as the ensembles show...it seems remarkable to me that we are torched by 12/29, usually it takes time when things go to crap for it to effectively muck up things downstream this far...I would not be surprised if the anomalies D10-12 end up cooler than currently shown, albeit above normal as the vortex does not really begin flooding Canada til 12/25

The GEPS is the best obviously while the GEFS is the worst, largely because it seems it does not want to go +PNA whereas even the EPS does...the good news may be that the GEFS denied the +PNA fairly strongly we are currently headed into 10-15 days ago while the GEPS/EPS did not so perhaps its wrong again

They have random years where they severely under perform relative to Syracuse and Buffalo since they don’t get lake effect that easily and synoptic storms can miss them to the east

Monster SE ridge...it made no sense...typically a super Nino has a huge GOA low and big western ridge with the trof in the east with no cold air. If I remember right speculation was a strong MJO wave interfered causing the odd pattern

The 18Z GFS makes about 5 attempts as to where to place the surface low

Chances are with that limited period of the AK vortex we would not flood the country and torch that fast with a mean trof in the east...all 3 ensembles continue insisting that the relaxation is brief and the vortex backs up into the Aleutians D14-16 and we begin going cold again.

I think in a +PNA pattern it works for sure, but with this -PNA now unless we get a good cold AMO the next 20 years we will have an issue

The pattern was lousier most of that month and we had a SER most of the time. I think maybe 12/20-12/25 we briefly went semi trof in the east and a big snow event hit TN/AR/OK but otherwise the SER was dominant

If the pattern relaxation is as brief as the ensembles currently show and the vortex moves back quickly to the Aleutians by D15-16 I am not sold we are going to torch nearly as much as currently shown 12/28-12/31, its not easy to just immediately even with the Pac flooding Canada to go that mild with a mean trof in the east, we'd need more of an Op GFS idea and not the GEPD/GEFS/EPS idea of late December 01 with the E trof but the AK vortex ruining it, usually it takes time for that to flood the pattern and it may have only a few days

I had not payed much attention to the lack of the 50/50. I was noticing more the ridge was too far west a few days ago....we have seen some big ones with the ridge further west but usually there are one of 3 other factors in place...the 50/50, the PV is really large and extends back west into MB/W Ontario, or the pattern is breaking down and progressing so while the ridge may have been off the W Coast when the development began in the Rockies/Plains, its quickly moving east. I think the 96 and 03 Blizzards occurred that way, ridge was pretty far west but pattern was about to snap and the Pac was gonna bust everything open soon after both events

Ensembles still show it regresses back to the Aleutians, even the GFS...I don't think we have anything more than a brief transitory warmup

Unfortunately the latest ENSO model run is markedly more neutral for next winter

Models largely sucked with Miller B storms or redevelopers until the mid 90s, simpler setups like Miller As they often did much better...a storm like 12/30/00 would have busted 100 times worse on 12/30/90 than it did a decade later...as a whole a large area was modeled well with that despite the fact it was a tricky storm for models even in 2000 to get right.

It may be more an issue that initial coastal wave is impacting the entire thing, several people here pointed that out yesterday, if you're in Chicago or Detroit and want snow you'd most definitely be worried about that system because that can wreck this event for them...I still think the best case scenario though is this is a NRN or CNTRL NE event, even BDL/PVD may have a hard time getting this to come back enough for notable snow

It appears to be a transient change to me to a GOA low or semi vortex, the GEPS/GEFS show it too D12-15 or so but it begins retrograding at the end and the ridge is beginning to build back...the EPS just seems to be slower but it too looks like it may be retrograding the trof back to the Aleutians D15=16

It’s really inside that, the PNA is pretty positive 12/24-12/25 on the ensemble charts. I think even 10 days ago most of the ensembles had a PNA today around -0.5

Rayo seems to agree somewhat with what I think. He’s not sold it’s going bomb mode into the Lakes, he just thinks it’s inland and not snow for the coast. I feel the GEM/Euro idea is probably going to verify way way too amped in the end. It’ll probably end up being a 990 low into Buffalo or a hybrid low/front. I’m not buying the bomb into the Lakes but feel the benchmark idea or anything close is highly remote to come back

They don’t really break it down, there just is not much cold air but the 500mb pattern D10-16 is way better for us than the pattern now

The problem is there are so many years in there with like 1-2 inches which ended up with big totals so it’s hard to say accurate these stats are over a long term period of 200 years or something