SnowGoose69

The difference this year is we may have a -NAO/AO to go with it...we are almost certainly going to have 1-2 more episodes of that this winter based on what happened in December unless we go 89-90 which is the only case where that did not happen

98 was actually cold compared to this lol

It'll never happen...I still say NYC gets over 20 this winter...the MJO is gonna cause something big and I've been saying that for days...you do not long term torch with an MJO wave that strong through 8-1-2 ever

I personally do not recall any cases of extreme or even well above normal warmth at all with an MJO wave of moderate or greater strength in those phases...they may be using a lot of data sets where the MJO was weakly in phase 8 or 1...if its in phase 8-1 as most GEFS/EPS currently show I believe at worst you probably are near normal and that may be a stretch

I think this is likely to verify as its fairly close in range and there has been a notable shift in the last 2 days on both the EPS and GEFs for a strong MJO wave now through 8-1.

I think the issue is the trof won't develop in the first place if the MJO is in that phase

As several have said if the magnitude of the MJO wave is right that won't come even close to verifying

Not anymore lol....it was the most Gung Ho 5 days ago in the 12-16 range with the PNA ridge and now it appears it'll be wrong

88-89 as a whole was worse northeast wide than 89-90 was....89-90 I think places in New england had some snow events in Feb/Mar where as 88-89 just was brutal across the board..it shows as top 10 least snowiest almost in every station although there was lots of bad luck in February 89 despite a cool month

This is why I wonder if it couples next winter or not or we run into the same issue. I think it depends on the magnitude...if its 0.3 the pattern could still be La Nina like in 23-24

Yeah this may be what saves us but it depends if the switch in recent days to a stronger amplitude idea is right...if its not who knows what happens. I am more of the belief what we have seen on the emsembles the last 3 cycles is more a can kick than a death sentence so probably can still see something happen but it may be closer to 1/20 or later

Its been awful as of late...it tried to do something similar 4 days ago at the end of its range and then reverted back to what the EPS/GEFS had...to be fair though the GEFS did try showing lowering heights out west on some of its last few runs after D10, it just has not been doing it consistently

The last 12 years of the past 2 cold AMO phases, basically 82-94 and 32-44 the MA southward cleaned up in the snow department...whether thats a statistical significance I don't know but it was pointed out to me once years ago how well places like ORF/RDU/CLT/ATL/BNA did in those two 12 year stretches relatively speaking as far as snow and even cold...it would make some sense they'd benefit from a cold Atlantic as a whole because the warmer phase, even back then probably was conducive to some degree of a WAR

I personally feel the 72-73 record is never going to get broken because the issue now with the overall higher precipitable water/warm SSTs is you are just too likely to get juicier systems or storminess...trying to pull off an 81-82 or 01-02 where you are insanely cold and dry or warm and dry is not easy. You'll get something somewhere but certainly winters with 3-4-5-6 inches are possible

The GEPS has the past 2 runs for sure on the 00 last night and 12 yesterday but it has been bad recently...it denied the current warmup vehemently 10-12 days ago when the GEFS/EPS insisted on it in their D12-D16 periods, now it sort of wants to kick the SER as far as 1/8-1/9. The GEFS/EPS have worsened slightly in recent days by making the W ridge shorter and or further east...I said in the NYC forum there is a 04-05ish look in some members in the 500 heights where places like MSP/MCI/OMA torch but DCA-SNE can do okay and be below normal with snow chances. I still prefer the ridge further west though over the Rockies or W Coast

I'd ignore the GEPS if that is what you're referencing as it has been extremely bad the last 4 weeks now beyond D8-10...the EPS/GEFS have not really budged at all now in 5 days...the main problem is some ensemble members either have the ridge out west too short or too far east...to a degree we see a bit of the 03-04/04-05 thing going on which worked for us and SNE but basically the rest of the country straight out torched in both of those winters where the ridge is basically centered over the Plains or just west of there...that pattern can work here, especially if the NAO is negative.

The idea of the -PNA though on the Op run is really an outlier to all the ensembles though...I still think something may happen in that period but more likely in SNE

It sure looks like its gonna get cold and active for a week or two in mid January, its just a question if it flips again...the fact we had the -AO/NAO in December is usually a good sign for the rest of winter, minus 89-90 of course so I feel optimistic this won't just be a January 97/99/00 type of brief flip in a neutral or Nina...La Ninas have a tendency to see whatever the pattern was in December revert back in February alot of the time so we may go back to crappy Pacific again but good Atlantic in February...that works in February way more often for coastal areas than it does in December.

I don't think the amplitude will be enough to really impact things much, this wave has been trending weaker with time on both ensembles...it seems the tendency so far this winter has been for a weaker wave than shown in the long range regardless of what phase its in

Evidently this storm broke the GFS model

December 2015 was like a La Nina, we had a raging SE ridge, normally in a strong Nino you'd have the monster low in the SW GOA, some sort of ridging east of it near the west coast and usually troffy or zonal like flow in the east. That pattern made no sense at the time....I think if I remember right some speculated the crazy MJO wave at the time may have overwhelmed what was even a strong Nino

This Nina is weakening. I still think NYC ends up over 20 inches this winter...the raging -AO/NAO in December outside of 89-90 has always led to 1 or 2 more similar episodes later in winter, its really tough to get a ratter pattern as you get into Jan-Mar with those indices like that, its much easier in December to fail

Unfortunately too the most recent ENSO runs now are less optimistic for a Nino in 23-24, the mean is actually around -0.1C lol...I still think given various factors in recent weeks we are going into at least a very weak Nino next winter, it may just take til spring til the predicting models see it

At least the GEFS sort of caved to the GEPS/EPS to a degree...none really show a SER anymore, the main bad change was they've delayed the vortex in AK moving west and the PNA going positive somewhat but they've at least moved more towards there being no connection between the block over Canada and the ridge anymore. Part of this change is probably the fact the breakdown of the western ridge has been delayed too from 2-3 days ago which is no surprise, the ensembles showed a total breakdown by 12/26-12/27 and now that is delayed which ultimately kicks the entire evolution further down

A storm of the magnitude depicted is just extraordinarily rare so some type of move that way would be expected. I think I'd still rather be in Indy/Grand Rapids etc than say Rockford as of now....to a degree something weaker may be better for whoever is in the ideal zone because the GFS with its bombs has been occluding the low so fast you lose the dynamics and subsequently get showery snow thereafter, a 988 system is sometimes better than a 972 bomb that occludes