SnowGoose69

GFS MOS which skews heavily towards climo has 8...of course we don't know yet where the axis of coldest 850s goes but that would verify as a 2-3 in the end probably as is

Remember it basically showed this for this week and is going to verify horribly. The MJO wave not being as strong as initially expected as wrecked the forecast of us going full blown February 2018-2019

Would be quite the feat if NYC records a below 0 reading yet has not had any measurable snow yet

Maybe for Maine but for NYC down to DCA the next 12 days do not look anywhere close to that warm.

The snowless streak ends in the next 10 days, its just a question of if its 0.5 or 2.2 or we get a big one...if we do its certainly gonna be in the 2/4-2/8 period..thereafter it may go fairly close to shutout pattern or total shutout eventually for mid to late February before maybe there are chances again first 2 weeks of March

It makes no sense really...I guess if the flow is truly THAT fast the high would bolt out that quick but chances are even without blocking that high is not gonna escape that fast so you'd probably at least see a snow to rain scenario

It does appear though (AT LEAST THROUGH 2/8-2/10 ANYWAY) that my warnings to the warm February boys club about going torchy in Feb in a Nina after Jan was torchy is dangerous because history has shown that usually Feb is colder or at least near normal in La Ninas where that has happened. 88-89 was a good example of it. Lets hope we don't see Norfolk do as well as they did in February 89 though

That is normally exactly where you want the GFS from 120-190 most years...given the tendency for the SER we can probably be sure that ends up way too suppressed

It does seem that this winter we've seen less volatility inside Day 6...there has tended to often be one model which holds out but overall the models have been locking onto generalized storm track ideas at that range and not changing much.

Moderate has a chance. I don’t think it’ll be strong. Generally the ENSO models would show a bit more consensus over 1.0 by now although they sort of bombed on the 2015-16 El Niño showing it being weak to moderate at this stage. That said there were other strong indicators that they were probably underdone and many were sounding the alarm of a strong El Niño

The CMC idea of no overruning band is definitely wrong. The NAM/Euro might ultimately be too far south with it and it may end up over SWF/POU as often happens with these events but the idea of basically nothing til everyone flips to a southerly wind is highly likely to not verify. I don’t think we know for 36 more hours if there’s a chance of decent snows down to I78 or south

Yeah, wherever that "finger" of WAA snows is could get several inches. This is nowhere near the worst possible setup though as the high is located NE of us, the ones where the high is already out over the Atlantic are the worst as we turn SE immediately. In this case we may be able to hold a light 070-090 wind for awhile. The number 1 analog showing up is 12/13/2013 but its really not anywhere close to that event because the airmass is not as good and the high positioning is worse.

The RGEM is wack though with its lack of overrunning precip compared to any other model...I still think there is measurable snow for sure...it won't be more than 2 inches for the city as it stands now but the RGEM idea is probably as crazy as any model that tries to show 6 inches

Yup...we used to have a rule that with a SWFE type event if the GFS shows snow at 90 plus hours you can usually take it to the bank that barring some massive change in your air mass or track you'll see snow because it tends to be too warm in the BL with these things til inside 60...the CMC is almost always a BL torch on these so I am not shocked. Overall this is a meh setup but once where 2 inches is probably possible

He was definitely wrong on the 10th-20th period this month, it may be above normal but the pattern is not going to be anywhere near as bad as the ensembles were showing in the 12-16 range a week or more ago

I am wary of believing in the patterns of recent years we can do it...the PWATS and just the tendency for juicy systems means somewhere we will luck into a 3-4-5 inch event at minimum if not a 2015-16 storm. I

December I believe most felt the wildly strong MJO wave through 3-4-5 caused the SER

It may just be more the warm AMO which we really should be coming out of soon

Its most likely that the 50/50 low has been nonexistent and there has been somewhat of a ridge there...this probably is the ultimate problem

As I said yesterday, many La Ninas have had the torch Dec with the GOA low, good January, torch February...the so-so December, bad January is a rarer combo. It seems La nina years often see the December pattern revert back in February but that usually is because bad La Ninas are bad in December so I have no idea what will happen. 88-89 I said yesterday resembles what we've seen so far...not a terrible December temp wise but unlucky snow wise, bad January temp wise and one snow event 1/7 then late Jan-March the pattern was not bad at all, we simply got no snow. That said I think there was a SWE that year

No pattern has really lasted long either...as soon as we enter each one you see the next one already showing by Day 12...even the torch 12/30-1/4 it was evident well in advance we'd see a modification of it thereafter...I just wonder if we get to 1/22 and ensembles still look good for 2/5 or we already see the pattern flipping again by D12-14 on the ensembles to something else.

I pointed out in the NYC forum too that ensembles never really bought as heavily into the Dec change early before it was delayed nor the supposed 1/10 flip this much as they are with this one. You're seeing dark reds on the ensemble anomalies out west D12-16...back in late December we really saw normalized ridge average out west, many members of the EPS and GEFS had trofiness in the west...basically zero across the board show that now...this is even stronger agreement on the individuals than we had for the December flip 12-16 days out.

The one notable difference on ensembles this time in the flip post 1/19 or so is that the agreement is way better...you may remember in late December even though the GEFS/GEPS/EPS showed western ridging the average was not especially red...you had basically normal heights...this time you're seeing dark reds show up so the ensemble member agreement is more or less unanimous this time around. Its just a question if it has any staying power and much like all the pattern flips we've seen the last 8 weeks by the time you enter it do you already see the change to something else showing up by D14

In the last 26-30 years winters have not had many incidents outside of El Nino where Dec/Jan are bad and Feb is good...we have seen many cases of bad Dec good Jan bad Feb in neutral or Nina...88-89 I guess would be closest thing to this winter so far in that Dec 88 was okay but we just could not get anything to work, Jan 89 was awful but we got a fluke snow event then February was somewhat cold but again we could not manage any snow

Its hard to roast anymore than we are now to be honest....this winter has consistenly done what nobody has expected so would not shock me at all if February looked like an El Nino and we averaged -10..