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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Well if the NAM is right this is the biggest bust ever for ATL. Rain by 14Z
  2. SnowGoose69
    18z Euro verifying best by a wide margin on precip coverage right now. RGEM is not bad but its too dry, 12/3KM NAM horrific. They were both dry in Shreveport and most of NRN LA and WRN MS/SE AR. Even the high res 12Z GFS is okay as is the regular GFS.
  3. SnowGoose69
    That may be why the 18Z run had a notable south shift over AL/GA with the WAA precip shield. We'll see if the 00Z continues to do that
  4. SnowGoose69
    One reason the NAM may have been yanking this thing so far N on runs til 18Z today and also drier on the SRN periphery was it was trying to blow too much convection up in the WRN Gulf. The HREF TSTM probs were never high with this and there is little activity out there now
  5. SnowGoose69
    the air mass in place there was lousy, it was like 01/M05 when the event started. Most areas in the SE/MA have a better air mass but it does indicate FZRA/PL will be a problem regardless
  6. SnowGoose69
    Looking back at the 00Z NAM/RGEM last night they were just so bad on the current coverage of precip in SE AR/W MS/NRN LA at the 00Z hour tonight 24 hour forecast. Even the Euro was underdone but not as bad. This was the key area for whether parts of GA down by ATL would get smashed in the AM or not, this area needed to be there and it is. Finally the 3km NAM caught it on the 18Z run today too. Just hope its PL and not FZRA, it ain't gonna be snow
  7. SnowGoose69
    Thats gotta be sleet
  8. SnowGoose69
    If the NAM is right ATL should be fine, 4-5 hours of some nasty sleet and then likely over to RA. The ESE winds of 10-15kts should push them into the mid 30s
  9. SnowGoose69
    RGEM not bad but its been ticking north over AL/GA with the WAA slug the last few runs.
  10. SnowGoose69
    If anything the FV3 is south of the 12Z run through like 42 hours but I’ve never followed that model much to know how it performs
  11. SnowGoose69
    The Euro doesn’t bomb often and it’s been real good this year but my memory is the one area it’s dropped a few major duds is on these pure southern branch systems like this
  12. SnowGoose69
    It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z. They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32
  13. SnowGoose69
    The fact it’s been trending this way for several runs tells me it may be onto something. I’ve not seen the NAM fail that severely at 36-42 hours too often. Beyond that is another story
  14. SnowGoose69
    The NAM now basically gives Atlanta nothing at all in the morning. I’m not sure it’s onto something or on it own planet
  15. SnowGoose69
    RGEM maybe did tick towards the NAM slightly, could be noise but there was a 20-25 mile shift N for a good portion of the run. Still have to watch this closely for areas on the edge
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah they continue to be way north with the WAA precip in AL/GA too though early in the run it did not look that way
  17. SnowGoose69
    Through 30 at least NAM looks like it won't be as N with precip into AL/GA this run
  18. SnowGoose69
    Just like 18-19 the Nino never came but long range models kept trying to bring it. Those PNA ensembles just 3-5 days ago unanimously had it going to -1 now they are mostly positive again
  19. SnowGoose69
    The New England forum has said before beyond 36 the GRAF is not too reliable but it does well at times inside of that.
  20. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is usually okay at 48-54 and not awful from 54-84. The 12km NAM can be really bad past 42-48 though the degree of badness can vary storm to storm. 3km NAM I trust only inside 30-36. Today for example the 3Km NAM at 48-60 over AL/GA/TN more resembles the RGEM/GFS than it down its own 12km counterpart which was very far north
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind
  22. SnowGoose69
    Most of TN and NRN GA closer to the TN border is the area I'd be most confident in now for snow amounts. Beginning to think even down close to ATL could see 2-3 inches though before it flips, especially if some type of mesoscale banding happens.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Euro now having the most snow here still is funny. Must be keying in more on that disturbance or jet than the other models are
  24. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is not nearly as far north as the NAM is
  25. SnowGoose69
    The NAM is probably too warm and amped. Prior to 36 hours there’s a tendency for that
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