SnowGoose69

Didn't realize NYC broke the record for 5/8 as well as they reached 36 at midnight

I believe the NWS uses some sort of rule like if LGA/EWR report it they can report a T for NYC otherwise either ASOS has to have SN or UP at NYC. ASOS isn’t capable of a RASN or SNRA report

I think below 40 easily occurs Sunday AM on the setup at 168. Euro shows 35. GFS had 47 on the 12Z run but the Op run was an outlier on being too warm. The gradient is strong enough and 850s cold enough I could not see it staying over 40. Just might not make the record of 36.

I find it funny how relatively mild or less expansive the 12Z Op GFS is with the cold this weekend relative to recent ensemble runs as well as the Op Euro or EPS. We rarely see the GFS be milder, especially when its inside 7-10 days.

Its interesting when you look at the NYC record lows how after 5/12 there's a pretty good uptick with almost all of them jumping 5-6-7 degrees from the first 10-12 days of the month.

The GFS/Euro wanted it to dig more 2-3 days ago taking the cold down into the TN Valley/SE region. That really is not realistic in May as most of those areas see their final FROPAs til September around this time. I think it'll be centered mostly DCA and north.

I believe though that much like cold in late October/early November our weather now does not necessarily correlate to summer and may even be a reverse indicator. Look at 2005 for example. There are only a few years I remember where miserable springs carried the entire way through. 2003 was one example

NYC would have a legit shot at their all time record for May if that played out. Only way it can be done is a deepening system with strong CAA and NW flow. They'll never sniff 32 this time of year without a strong gradient all night

On the Euro NYC would likely comes close to their record lows on 5/9 and 5/10 of 35 and 36.. The all timer is not out of reach here if we get the right setup. Its too far out to determine but if we did get a coastal and had enough of a gradient with strong CAA 32 is not out of the question given the -AO/NAO

The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!! I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify

I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future

Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting.

I can’t recall what day it was but I vaguely remember this one. I want to say it was a Friday afternoon or evening in February or March and have no recollection of why it busted. We were supposed to get a decent amount up here too

I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there. I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north. It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too

My first thought when I read this was 12/4/91 or the 1/16/92 bust but this one I don't remember.

The 12/26/93 storm was miserably and I mean miserably handled by NOAA/local mets etc. They completely abandoned ship off a slight shift east in the 12Z guidance that morning despite the fact by noon the radar along the DE/MD coast was clearly west of the 12Z models. I think all warnings outside Suffolk got dropped and by 3-4pm it was obvious the snow was coming straight up the coast. They ended up having to put advisories back up by 7-8pm.

That was dangerously close to being a catastrophe of a bust. The system started sliding more east than expected and nearly ending up missing a good part of the area. I remember that evening around 6pm sitting at home thinking this is really going to bust isn’t it? It ultimately slid far enough east that most of northern Jersey didn’t see major snows

The 5 boroughs of NYC were never under a winter storm watch one time from March 1996 til 12/29/00. That shows you how pathetic things were in regards to winter storms in that period. January 2000 because the storm snuck up on us at the last second they went straight from nothing to a winter storm warning otherwise the streak would have been 11 months shorter

I’m not sure if that LE was correct though. It is pretty darn accurate today at Central Park but I don’t believe there was an ASOS there yet then they were using some sort of old school home weather system for readings from October 1993 til July 1996 when I think the ASOS was put in so very possible that reading was erroneous

There was some pretty nasty dry slotting from about NYC to Nassau for a time. Quite a few places there saw only 16-22 inches or so. I want to say BDR only reported 17-18. We’ve definitely had some oddball measurements over the years at the airports and NYC. That Newark measurement on 2/11/94 I think most agree was wrong. NYC’s measurement on 1/22/87 I had an NWS Met tell me 18-20 years ago they KNOW was wrong. Recently we obviously have some real awful ones but even before 2000 we saw occasional sloppy reporting

78 was forecast remarkably well for the time though the amounts weren’t. The LFM was the model which nailed it as it also did the 89 Thanksgiving storm which the other models mostly discounted. 78 was quickly setback though when the models blew the 1983 storm north of Philly. In fairness there wasn’t much computer advancement in those 5 years though. 1983 was somewhat of a benchmark though in that when the 00Z models ran that evening they shifted the entire storm well north and caught onto what was going on. At the time that was one of the first cases of the models ever doing that

At the time it was the first case ever of a major storm being modeled that far in advance. Once we got to 96-120 every model had it including the UKMET. Forecasting was still pretty bad in 1993. It improved significantly in the ensuing 3-5 years as a result of the Euro being more widely used as well as the ETA being worlds better than the LFM/NGM.

Similar bust on part 1 to the December 2003 storm. Difference was part 1 of the 12/03 storm busted on temps while the first part of the January 2011 storm busted on QPF that no models saw. The 2nd part of that December 2003 storm though majorly disappointed. The mid levels sort of torched between part 1 and part 2 and the coastal wasn’t deep enough so snow growth was lousy and the CCB was spotty leading to two mega bands over ERN NJ near EWR and another near central LI. In between most places saw 3-5 inches, if that. The CCB in part 2 of January 2011 rivaled April 82/February 83. It was just insane snow rates and a gravity wave may have played a part too much like it did in February 83 and January 04

I remember being there for the January 2010 storm and we were about 1-2 hours away from disaster and repeating 2007. Thankfully right as we were nearing it we flipped to sleet and avoided another mess. I think we got about 3/4 inch of ice between about 10am-1pm before we went over to sleet. Got 6-7, inches of snow the next day which was mostly unforecast outside of Mike Morgan who either got lucky or saw something nobody else did

18Z RGEM metogram has .70 snow for OKC