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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    NNE moving tropicals verify east of the NHC forecast at 24-48 hours 90% of the time I think.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Remember these things tend to be a bit more east of what you expect. I would not be surprised to see the metro spared the worst winds in the end with a 20-30 mile east kick. Central-East LI though are locks to see strong winds
  3. SnowGoose69
    The development just jumped east over the Bronx likely due to some sort of outflow. I don’t think it’ll get onto Long Island but there’s so much going on now with the outflow I wouldn’t be surprised. I hear thunder here in Merrick almost constantly now
  4. SnowGoose69
    Even heard it here on Long Island
  5. SnowGoose69
    Didn’t think the metro would see much but if this outflow makes it into southern parts of the 5 boroughs or Nassau it’s possible
  6. SnowGoose69
    LGA went from 95/49 to 88/66 when the sea breeze came across
  7. SnowGoose69
    Saranac Lake supposedly broke their all time record for the the entire year. Not just May.
  8. SnowGoose69
    The last 30 years its been awfully hard to see 3 consecutive duds in a row. We have been tending more towards extremes so it seems when we have 2 bad winters the next one has always been somewhat good. 1996-1999 was an exception
  9. SnowGoose69
    Likely some type of atmospheric lag from the 09-10 Nino which usually has (and did) have significant blocking. Obviously we did not see that same impact in the 98-99 winter but we did in the 83-84 winter which most would have probably forecast to be a torch and was not.
  10. SnowGoose69
    NYC needs to make up 4.1 degrees by 5/31 to not finish top 10 coolest for May. I'm sure it'll happen but it might not be by much. 1973 was the last May to average below 60. 2008 was close
  11. SnowGoose69
    1996 never hit 90 after May until like 8/25. And it was a legit no 90 either. I want to say LGA/JFK never hit 90 once during that stretch and EWR hit 90 maybe 1 or 2 times and it was only 90, not even 91.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Didn't realize NYC broke the record for 5/8 as well as they reached 36 at midnight
  13. SnowGoose69
    I believe the NWS uses some sort of rule like if LGA/EWR report it they can report a T for NYC otherwise either ASOS has to have SN or UP at NYC. ASOS isn’t capable of a RASN or SNRA report
  14. SnowGoose69
    I think below 40 easily occurs Sunday AM on the setup at 168. Euro shows 35. GFS had 47 on the 12Z run but the Op run was an outlier on being too warm. The gradient is strong enough and 850s cold enough I could not see it staying over 40. Just might not make the record of 36.
  15. SnowGoose69
    I find it funny how relatively mild or less expansive the 12Z Op GFS is with the cold this weekend relative to recent ensemble runs as well as the Op Euro or EPS. We rarely see the GFS be milder, especially when its inside 7-10 days.
  16. SnowGoose69
    Its interesting when you look at the NYC record lows how after 5/12 there's a pretty good uptick with almost all of them jumping 5-6-7 degrees from the first 10-12 days of the month.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The GFS/Euro wanted it to dig more 2-3 days ago taking the cold down into the TN Valley/SE region. That really is not realistic in May as most of those areas see their final FROPAs til September around this time. I think it'll be centered mostly DCA and north.
  18. SnowGoose69
    On the Euro NYC would likely comes close to their record lows on 5/9 and 5/10 of 35 and 36.. The all timer is not out of reach here if we get the right setup. Its too far out to determine but if we did get a coastal and had enough of a gradient with strong CAA 32 is not out of the question given the -AO/NAO
  19. SnowGoose69
    The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!! I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify
  20. SnowGoose69
    I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future
  21. SnowGoose69
    Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting.
  22. SnowGoose69
    I can’t recall what day it was but I vaguely remember this one. I want to say it was a Friday afternoon or evening in February or March and have no recollection of why it busted. We were supposed to get a decent amount up here too
  23. SnowGoose69
    I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there. I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north. It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too
  24. SnowGoose69
    My first thought when I read this was 12/4/91 or the 1/16/92 bust but this one I don't remember.
  25. SnowGoose69
    The 12/26/93 storm was miserably and I mean miserably handled by NOAA/local mets etc. They completely abandoned ship off a slight shift east in the 12Z guidance that morning despite the fact by noon the radar along the DE/MD coast was clearly west of the 12Z models. I think all warnings outside Suffolk got dropped and by 3-4pm it was obvious the snow was coming straight up the coast. They ended up having to put advisories back up by 7-8pm.
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