wdrag

Update: No sig changes to the outlook... more complicated than I thought it would be using the 00z/4 guidance... but the overall suggested outcome I think could still occur. It may be that there is an interruption of 90 degree days this Sunday but haven't studied enough to be sure. It does look like big heat I anticipated Tuesday may be delayed a day or two but it's only Thursday the 5th. Still 5 days til the 10th. Storms: mid week next week with PW 2" and KI mid-upper 30s. Will rereview this on the weekend. Next weekend and beyond:? IF it doesn't rain during the day during next weekend, pretty good chance 90 or higher, at least interior and model guidance while showing more significant troughing just to our west, unsure how fast the cold front can pass through. So the future value of this thread: May be a little overdone but the potential exists for reasonably accurate outcomes. We do know 90-95F heat is coming to the interior...just can we string together 6 or more consecutive for the longest of the season so far and can we surpass 100HI? Some of the guidance has even bigger heat to our north near the Canadian border. AND.... the last few days have been dry so the ground is drying out... a little better chance to warm up. Already max'd 83-85 today the 5th, at EWR-POU. YESTERDAY: I am beginning to get a feeling that the NAM can still get tooooo energized even 24 hours in advance of what was a light to moderate shower event for parts of LI... a far cry from the modeled 2". No question the GFS was best on this and the EC op was smashed when compared to the GFS in the many days advance guidance. EC OP even within 48 hours was too far west. Gives me even more pause to hang my hat on the EC OP. Finally' Atlantic Basin may be seeing a couple of storms within the next 5 days. The one NHC has at 2pm today, a 70% chance off of Cape Verde. 70% means 30% chance it won't grow into a TC within the next 5 days. Also monitoring any potential TC formation response to the unusual cold outbreak in S America-that is a very long shot. Walt 521P/5

Left the botched Title here Wed morning 440AM: Longest heat wave of the season so far, "possible" Sun Aug 8 to possibly Wed Aug 18. Heat: 00z/4 EPS continues 19C Mon-Thu before slight cooling thereafter, but that may be in part climo? 00z/4 GFS has made an abrupt change on backdooring and now has potential 90F heat NON-marine influenced I95 corridor for many days. There could be interruptions due to convection-sea breezes but by and large a lengthy hot spell seems to be increasingly modeled. NAEFS suggests that the above normal temps may continue through the 18th, possibly longer. Heat indices may rise to 100-105F in the I95 corridor (non marine), for two days next work week. This is a time of lush vegetation that contributes to high dew points and it appears dewpoints should rise into the low-mid 70s, as modeled, at times next week. The first hottest HI day should be next Tuesday or Wednesday (10th-11th). The 00z/ 4 GGEM is not favoring a big heat wave and WPC Day 6-7 for next Tue-Wed MAX HI is generally mid 90s... so there is uncertainty although I sense NCEP NDFD blend may be muting the potential heat. We will know more in a week. The reason for this thread: This pattern gives appearance of providing non marine areas with their longest spell of summery 90+ heat. EWR current max stretch is I believe 5 days. This doesn't mean historic numbers but does suggest precautions will need to be taken each afternoon-night in the interior urban centers. QPF: in addition to the 1-2" of rain that at least eastern LI should receive later today-Thursday morning, there could be sea breeze induced thunderstorms in the high CAPE over a portion of the LI shores next week, that could drive up iso max rainfall there to 6". The pattern also suggests, with waves of PWAT near 2" next week and KI in the mid 30s, that there may be small pockets of brief excessive rainfall and wet microbursts in an otherwise light westerly steering flow (generally less than 25 knots next week) I95 corridor northwestward. Where, when or IF? It doesn't look like it gets too warm aloft at upper levels (500MB) to stifle thunderstorm growth, until next weekend at the earliest (14th). fwiw: Marginal 90F appears possible this Fri-Sat (6-7), but the heat portion the thread concentrates from the 8th-possibly as long as the 18th with the initial primary focus next Mon-Fri (9-13)

I have just looked at the NAEFS D8-14... ITS likely warmer than normal past the 15th. CPC outlook added, and the MAX HI that there NWS is forecasting for NYC. Add a few for EWR and central NJ. EC EPS 12z run still 19C Tue and WED with a slight cooling Thu-FRI. Anyway, the Atlantic waiters are warming and nearby water temps 70-73. Corn is tall and lush here in nw NJ. Think some of the factors for dew points in the 70s are coming together for this coming week, including CAPE near 2000J, PW corridor of 1.8" possibly persisting mid and late next week along I95, KI occasionally-mid-upper 30s Mon-at least Fri, light winds aloft. . Already stickier than this morning. Not much else to add.

Mostly Yes.... I of course worry about the GFS backdoor early next week but the EC seems to be steadfast on the 710AM comments this morning. Now that the EC and NAM are giving LI a nice 1-2" bath tomorrow into Thursday, a little bit nor'easter style, am may be getting ready to get a little bolder and fire up the thread tomorrow morning by 6AM. Will revisit 00z/4 ensembles and multi op models... As per prior posts...near 90F heat begins interior Fri afternoon. Biggest heat may be delayed til Wednesday-Thursday of next week. I saw only about 19C on the 00z/3 ensembles at 850MB..haven yet to check the 12z. Rainfall: I still think spot 6" by the 15th but it's not worth a thread since modeling is much less (esp WPC thru D7). Looks like slow moving heavy showers/few thunder this coming weekend and then next week from Tuesday onward. Probably a couple of wet microburst SVR's in there across NJ/se NYS/CT middle and end of next week. Heat and thunderstorm activity should linger past the 15th..unsure for how long but into the 17th is possible. The 90F heat looks fairly routine for summer (imo) and mainly interior, and the qpf is spread out enough geographically, so these factors limit the value of any thread, at least at this Tuesday morning time. Will have two try to pick these qpf events off, as they approach within 2 days and have enough geographic coverage to warrant interest. Reevaluating as time allows tonight.

No thread from me this morning... too much hype for too much uncertainty. I think LI is going to see pretty decent rainfall (1") east e part of LI Wed-Thursday (weak nor'easter). As per prior posts...near 90F heat begins interior Fri afternoon. Biggest heat may be delayed til Wednesday-Thursday of next week. I see only about 19C on the ensembles at 850MB Rainfall: I still think spot 6" by the 15th but it's not worth a thread since modeling is much less (esp WPC thru D7). Looks like slow moving heavy showers/few thunder this coming weekend and then next week from Tuesday onward. Probably a couple of wet microburst SVR's in there across NJ/se NYS/CT middle and end of next week. Heat and thunderstorm activity should linger past the 15th..unsure for how long but into the 17th is possible. The 90F heat looks fairly routine for summer (imo) and mainly interior, and the qpf is spread out enough geographically, so these factors limit the value of any thread, at least at this time. Will have two try to pick these qpf events off, as they approach within 2 days and have enough geographic coverage to warrant interest. Beautifully cool morning, Walt 710A Tuesday Aug 3.

No thread yet on Aug 5-15. GFS OP may be winning the war with EC OP on qpf for this Thursday as the GFS and to some extent, the GGEM have been dry. !8Z 3K NAM is dry but NOT it's 12K version. I'm probably going to have to make a move tomorrow, if Thursday modeling goes back in on qpf. Otherwise, near 90 seems plausible EWR only (interior coastal plain) Fri-Sun, then the heat is on next week. How long and intense?? I get a little leery of EC extremes beyond 7days (next Tuesdays HI near 105?) However, will check ensembles, NCEP D7 HI and multiple models Tuesday. There is no doubt heat returns next week. Does it get interrupted with a backdoor? Unlikely. Can it continue beyond the 15th? Possibly... NAEFS continues bullish on above normal temps and as per your observation of multiple ensembles. So, near 100HI next week. I think iso FF/6" between the 5th-15th. Looks like a decent chance of heavy showers-tstms sometime this weekend, then again multiple times next week from Tuesday forward...generally I95 corridor northwestward... does not look like a LI thunderstorm scenario next week... (could be different there for this Thursday-early Fri?) Tropics---just need to wait.

EC OP with a curiousity 850 Vort max moving nwwd in the Atlc Basin next week?

No time to thread Aug 5-15 , but if this continues on the 12z cycle will begin a heat wave- (near 100HI next week) iso FF/6" will thread late this eve. EC continues burst of showers/iso thunder this Thurs-Fri while 00z/2 GFS and GGEM say no. 90F may begin Fri after whatever WAA event occurs Thurs?? MOS now has EWR 91F Sunday and both EC OP and GFS OP have a heat wave here next week... with substantial CAPE and KI from time to time and weak steering flow aloft. Suggests big thunderstorm potential on at least 3 or 4 days between the next two weekends, probably interior but could leak into NYC. NAEFS continues emphatic about warmer than normal next week and a bit beyond. Curiously:00z/2 EC has a significant 850 VT moving nwwd in the W Atlc next week... whether thats real and results in a TC?

A probable dud thread.... tho watching leftovers now in ne PA.

SPC 854A upgrade -slight expansion D1 attached. ...Northeast... Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from late morning through the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front -- first in northern/western portions of the region, then spreading/expanding eastward. Sporadic damaging winds and isolated severe gusts/hail are possible. While magnitude of damaging gusts should be mostly subsevere to marginally severe, given the lack of both greater moisture/buoyancy and low-level flow, the expected dense coverage of convection may result in enough events to justify a 15%/categorical upgrade to wind probabilities at this time. Convection will be supported by a combination of weak MLCINH, diurnal heating, modest but adequate low-level moisture, boundary- layer convergence near the front and low, and large-scale lift aloft ahead of the shortwave trough. Moist advection should increase surface dew points over most of this area to the upper 50s and low 60s F. This will contribute to MLCAPE mainly in the 300-800 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper (anvil-level) winds will aid in organization, though low-level flow will remain too weak to enlarge hodographs appreciably. Well-mixed sub cloud layers will aid in localized strong-severe gust potential, until evening stabilization of the boundary layer removes enough low-level CAPE/lapse rates to weaken convection substantially with proximity to the Mid-Atlantic Coast and western New England.

Few thoughts: No thread at this time, but may start one this afternoon and maybe another in the next few afternoons. 1) SVR WX thread se NYS/NW NJ 5PM-10PM. Realistic SPC D1 Marginal risk. No thread at this time cause probably too small an area of coverage but potential exists per modeling of a few big storms w hail. Dies out near NYC around 9-10P. 2) Heat Waves and fairly large QPF (iso 6") coming to some areas, with the bigger qpf threats 5th through at least the 14th; and 90F begins in parts of our area next weekend (7th) and it too can be multiple heat waves or singular persising through at least the 14th. Pattern: Sharpening meridional pattern develops this week as the WAR builds westward in response to a closed low aloft attempting to form in the Ohio Valley. The band of high PWAT (near 2") and intermittent heavy rains just southeast of our subforum attempts to to develop west. NAEFS starts this e LI early this week while most modeling tends to wait til the 5th or after. Will rereview daily and kind of wait till it becomes more certain a a very small part of the NYC subforum will receive 6" in the first half of the month. The way it looks to me: above normal rainfall is almost certain these next two weeks for parts of our area. Spatial coverage and where are TBD. This includes marginal severe weather threats Thursday onward. CAPE grows considerably next weekend and seems to hang around week two. Good news for keeping it lush around here. 746AM added the NAEFS prob of above normal temps week two of August--- pretty high confidence. We'll see how long this high confidence might persist?

Summarizing: 3rd wettest July on record at CP, (generally top 10 NYC metro-least on parts of LI), and cooler than normal. How was the severe events count vs normal (just use as best can near NYC, or maybe SVR/FF issuances)? Initial thread issuance missed the overall heat expectation-which did not occur. 749AA: added percent of normal qpf for July as of 7/30.

Little bit but not on NJ. Eating lobster. Needed time to unwind, even supposedly retired. Natures watering has made for fantastic gardens

Here are snippets of 2"+ rainfall this afternoon-eve.

Agreed and warming above normal... it's potentially threatening for those few that get bombed with 6"+ rainfall in August's first two weeks. I see a separate thread evolving but no timE to fully eval til Sunday,

I've added the Wednesday afternoon update from SPC. My focus is basically along the warm front-triple point wherever that traverses. CAPE and wind field/shear is good enough for iso SVR up to I84 late Thu afternoon-evening but I'm thinking more favorable zone is near and south of I78 in NJ-PA. Nevertheless, started a thread due to SPC outlooks, some of modeling dumping 1.5-2" of rain in 6 hours especially in se NYS/n NJ and ne PA. I won't be able to comment much of this thread period so just stay with it patiently and keep up to date on SPC outlooks, NWS Watch/warning/stmts and of course the radar with your observed trends. Never know, there might be a later trend further North into NYS/CT. 12z/28 EC wind algorithm pegs s CT/LI with 40-50kt.

Not threading yet... will wait til late today. Could be tornadic near warm front. A couple of models have very heavy rain near a triple point and so its a concern, especially NJ and maybe LI? Have seen the wind fields. Don't like some of the instab parameters. Need to rereview with 12z/28 guidance.

Wantage NJ 0.48" rainfall so far since ~550P Tue and beneficial. Plenty of thunder since 6P, still here currently at midnight.

Wantage had G35 MPH 614P, 0.26" in that storm, and about 4 mi away, pea sized hail at ~620PM.

Just got back senior softball and saw the watch in our northern part of the forum... I can see something gusty 40 kt near and n of I84 but for now not threading, since its a small part of the forum, a bit shakey and pretty quick. Just hope we all along I84 get some rain.,

Understood regarding 8/10 uptick too soon... so the following will probably mean the GEFS is outlier and not reliable. fwiw... 12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 ne USA and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin, as briefly discussed in early MJO/K Wave posts.

12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin.

A copy from this morning July: The 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti shows just two members with a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire. Overall it looks to me like it's trying to warm up after the 5th, and especially the 10th onward as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west and/or strengthens,. That should lead to Bermuda high dominance for us in week two August and maybe beyond?

First (00z/27) GEFS sign of something significant in the Atlantic Basin. Just two members with a closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. It's a start. Might be a tad early? but it's better than nothing - if you're looking for TC's in the Atlantic. The WAR via GEFS modeling is westward building beginning the middle of next week and more consistently, Aug 10 and beyond. Don't know for sure. Your's to flesh out via tropical signals.

Nothing for me to confidently post a useful thread through Aug 10. Today's D! by SPC looks reasonable to me for late today to our N and NW. I did add the 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti showing just two members w a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire.