wdrag

12z/13 EC cycle suggests 850 VT curls n-ne-e across NJ on the 20th. PW comes up in two batches, the first with weekend pooling over the Delmarva, the second with Freddie remnants. We shall see if lift provides some yield of the potential double dose middle of next week

Time for the 12z/13 EC to back off on the bigger qpf tomorrow as per rather meek NAM USA models. 06z still looks juicy up this way to I80 anyway for Sat.

See no reason to be dissapointed in the evolving pattern and progress of PWAT pools (near the oncoming CFP, and then ahead of remnant Fred). 722A/13

Another band of showers and strong thunderstorms 11P-3A for parts of NJ/NYS.... w NJ may hear their dogs barking sometime between 11P-1A and maybe iso SVR. No other changes to Fri-Sat expectations. Haven't seen any evening RTP's for easy MAXT summary. Walt

CoCoRAHS yesterday. Max ants 8/8-12-12z, 3.5-4.3" on Co RAHS undoubtedly heavier per wxunderground in a few spots.

MAX HI in CP today was 101. Max T in EWR at least 97.

So the bow passed s of Wantage NJ. Very few power outages n part of the County. Wantage NJ 4 sw (our home) Max G 28 MPH 408P 0.09 rainfall and now at 427P, still 85F at 740' MSL.

Have started a low confidence thread since the impacts could be significant for part of our area. Ensembles imply that whatever the remnants of Fred, they track northward into the eastern USA with its own PWAT blob and potential for squally gusts of 30-40 knots passing into our very close to our area PA/NJ/LI southward to the Delmarva during the middle or end of next week. Indirectly and of interest to me is that the seeming evolving pattern will have a separate moisture blob somewhere in VA-MD, parked there by the Saturday morning CFP in our NYC subforum. That separate blob of moisture, I think, has a good chance of being pushed northward, into our area early next week, well ahead of the Fred remnants. IFFFFF, we get both blobs of RH overriding the northward drifting warm front, I think we'd be talking over 5" of rain somewhere in the mid Atlantic states. So at this early early stage as my own heads up: Do we see only the advance frontal moisture arrive next week, or do we receive leftover Fred moisture (possibly two fairly large rain events)? Added 00z/12 deterministic single member EC PWAT for early next week showing northward advancing moisture pools.

Good Thursday morning all, Will add and post CoCoRAHS #'s for the past few days (late today). In the meantime, Max HI in NYC ydy, despite not making 90 (officially) was 100...well above WPC (after heat finally breaking through the Sun-Tue coastal low Delaware River pseudo warm frontal delay). Now we can go for 105 HI in NYC today, and temps at EWR both today and tomorrow 98ish (or whatever you think). No doubt this event will place late June as a lesser event. We're dealing with 3 days HI near 105 in the I95 corridor of NJ. Don't have time to look at every number but the potential continues for 90F heat in NJ thru midday Sat. SVR (scattered) I think is a pretty good bet for the region along and n of I80 between 5P and 11P today. Graphic attached. More heavy storms late Fri and then leftover showers and storms Sat (especially NJ LI southward. Will begin a Fred moisture thread shortly. Also added some WPC max HI guidance for NYC from previous days. This is why when outlooking potential hazardous events, we need to consider blended statistical guidance as muted but a consideration as part of the briefing package.

95 EWR and PHL today, 92 LGA, 89 NYC. Will try to add some #s tomorrow on qpf. It's adding up.

Monitor the W PA convection: Looks like a little self generating convective complex with a cool pool aft, SPC added SVR potential in eastern PA and I could see a few SVR in our area, esp NJ between 5P-midnight. Stripe of mid 70s dew point is a feed near I95. HI in the upper 90s to near 100 in NJ at 1P. Modeling doesn't look too good on this complex. Walt

Some of the numbers from the 12z/11 NAM BL temp suggest 98-100F at EWR Thu-Fri.

0.22 Wantage. No watering this morning and no lightning so our dog didn’t bark. Sun coming out now. Big furnace for 3 days. Good luck NYC and urban centers non marine areas.

Decent rainfall of 1/4"+ past half hour nw NJ.

Edited-winnowed my botched Aug 4 thread title window down to the probable reality at 440AM. My botch on Aug 8-10 due to unanticipated impact of the coastal low. Longer range NWS NDFD-MOS was better on lower HI for Mon-Tue. This morning: Modeling doesn't seem to have much clue on what's going on. Apparently a decent trigger for heavy showers continues across the subforum. Looks to me like CoCoRahs should have a couple of 5+ amounts for the entire thread period of Aug 4-11, by the time of Thursdays reports. My guess is we'll see some heavy convection late today-this eve across ne PA-nNJ-se NYS in the hot air with potential for wet microburst wind damage and iso 2" rain in an hours time. Thu-Fri: My guess is that these two days will rival the heat and HI of late June (29th-30th). I can see a max T NYC of 95-98, and EWR 98-100. HI pushing 105 both days. SPC has marginal risk Thu-Fri and so the wet microburst SVR looms for parts of the area. CAPE looks possibly the largest of the summer late Fri? Modeling still debating Saturday: but EC has heat wave continuing parts of the area and PW 2+" lingering into Sat morning. After that?? The Canadian trough is not poking south so much any more. Cools later Saturday... FRED, might be a problem for NJ-LI with moisture here 18th-19th and even a big swell if it gets stuck off the Delmarva with gale gusts just to our south. Worthy of monitoring but no thread from myself, at least not yet. 5A/11.

Should be about to roll on a 4-5 day heat wave EWR, 3-4D POU-NYC ending later Sat. HI projections 100-105 Wed-Fri and maybe near 100 Sat. Max T with 850T 20-21C should make 97 in EWR, maybe a touch higher dependent on heavy rainfall. EWR could begin Heat wave today tho marginal... it will probably get to 90 just a couple of miles west of EWR today. This mornings heavy showers on radar threatens to make to NYC, tho modeling has most of it I78 south. SVR: SPC has us in marginal risk Thu and the D4 rarity this time of year, SLIGHT RISK already into NE PA. TT modeled by op EC into the lower 50s Thu-FRI parts of the area. Presuming a trigger, should be some hailers (heat may melt the big stuff down to dime or less), and of course wet microbursts, despite wind fields below 30KTS, below 500MB. Possibly the best days of SVR are Frir or Sat. The usual big qpf amounts in pockets. Not only SVR potential, but a few pockets of FF, especially NJ/se NYS. ISO 6+ by Saturday night in a couple spots, inclusive of the past couple of days, esp NJ. BIG CAPE is the feed for FF. Regarding our next TC: It threatens big PWAT - moisture contribution 18th-20th, especially s of I80, even if worn and torn coming up into the eastern USA. Depends on the ridging lifting northward to the north of the Great Lakes. The more it lifts, the further north remnants move. Finally, it should be shredded eastward. No thread till have time to be sure. Am offline most of the rest of today. Have a good one. Walt

Think we're on our way to a 4-5 day heat wave EWR (interior NJ) and 3-4 day POU-NYC with some nice toasty #s coming. 89 nw NJ this afternoon, 90-93 e PA so not far away and the heretofore unexpected rainy low of 1-5" for NJ and 1-2.5" LI resulted in a cooler than normal daytime there Sun-Mon and therefore cannot do longest of the summer so far (8th-9th nixed by coastal low) The tropics has a depression going but that is beyond this thread. Not much else I can say on potency...it's now redeveloping. Could her some quite heavy storms early Tue in NJ... modeling has trended south today so tough for me to say where. I should have more time to delve into the coming numbers.

Challenging days ahead: This unexpected rain conundrum (Wednesday Aug 4 thread start) has delayed the interior heat wave 2 days, but it's also becoming evident that it can last til Saturday. Wed-FRI afternoon looks good for HI 100-105. Heat wave should begin EWR Tuesday, but not a guarantee. Could be hotter in Morristown-Somerville-Poughkeepsi than EWR on Tue. HEAVY QPF: I'll be adding numbers as I get a chance, but not til this eve. A possibility of some heavy showers between midnight and 10A Tuesday, especially NJ/se NYS. Then late day scattered heavy thunderstorms Tue-Fri with potential for a few wet microbursts....especially NJ-NYS-PA. Even Saturday there could be lingering heavy showers, especially I80 south. SVR threat as above and will look at details day by day., TC: who knows, but no separate thread till a TC actually forms and we get 24 hours of tracking. The small risk is there for the 18th-19th but no action on my part. Have a good Monday, Walt

12z/8 EC OP delays CFP til Sat. MOS still looks too cold at EWR this week but now has mid 90s... during mid week and several days of ~100 HI. Going to be toasty. Even Tue near I95 (KEWR) should reach Hi of 95-100. More late tonight if I have time... Heat starting today and possibly tomorrow was probably wrong in the original thread. Everything else looks reasonable to me Beyond the 17th...NAEFS and modeling trying to warm it up above normal.

Later in the day. I can see then ice sse feed on radar.

Sunday morning update: 745A: Staying the course on this outlook. Still undecided whether heat wave will be 4-6 days (Mon or Tue-Fri, or Mon or Tue-Sat?). I think heat is going to return quickly, certainly 85 here in nw NJ today and 85-90 EWR Monday. HI 95-100 Tue and 100-105 Wed-Fri. Next weekend: 'probably' drier and cooler but not sure how cool?? Warm thicknesses continue. 500MB pattern still showing signs of a split of the big Canadian trough so weekend uncertain on whether front hangs up around here. QPF outlook no change. fwiw... see attached, extreme southern part of out forum had 3-5.5" today, unexpected from the original thread but the idea... this is a potent pattern for pockets of very heavy qpf. TC 18th-19th? Still a small chance. Long ways off... no thread on anything beyond the 17th. I'll look at everything much more carefully this evening.

I have to wait out the modeling but the troughing may be too consolidated and maybe slightly too strong near the Canadian border.

OK: Lots to think about. NWS local offices now have Hazardous wx outlook mention of HI low 100's Tue-Thu and I can easily see Friday as the worst day. EC is gravitating back to its original projections through Fri. If the wind direction at EWR is north on Monday instead of se, the Heat wave begins Monday there and possibly POU as well and lasts through Fri. I can even see EWR contg dry n wind 90F Saturday and sporadically occurring the following week. This per EPS ens heating up to 19C Wed-Fri and only slowly cooling thereafter. Some minor suggestion that the 5H trough trying to dig into the Great Lakes, splits, with a short wave piece lifting ENE through the St Lawrence Valley Fri-Sat and another digging back into OHIO Sun-Mon. We'll see if the warmth continues beyond Fri... I can't rule it out. In the meantime...I'll be tracking HI this week. Little question in my mind that persistent 95-102 HI will occur in NJ and probably Hud Valley Tue-Fri and may b surprisingly near 95 on Monday there. LI and the city... I won't debate the ocean breeze nuances but it's going to be close for the city to see an HI of 100. Max T...these thicknesses suggest to me EWR max T 97 later this coming week. Also, I think 12z/7 MOS max T is running too cool at EWR. Already EWR and NNJ near I95 were 90-92F today and yesterday. Sunday a break in the 90F and then we'll see if we resume 90+ heat Monday. I think there is a chance for EWR. QPF: I stand by the iso 6+ and now, by Saturday eve the 14th. Could be a fairly wide SVR event late Friday?? Timing dependent as wind fields aloft increase. Plenty of CAPE Tue-Fri with SSEWD drifting late day storms Tue-Wed, [maybe even Monday along an inverted trough CATSKILLS-to ne NJ?]; then E or ESEWD moving storms this Thu-Fri. PWAT frequently near 2" Tue-Fri... and generally slow moving storms til Fri. Isolated wet microbursts possible Tue-Thu then the more general SVR threat Fri. I do see the TC for the 18th-19th part way up the east coast but no separate thread for a few days.

Probably but await possible 5H trof delay and sharpening oh valley unlikely but?

QUICK 00/6 review of ens and op runs exclusively GFS/EC related and the NAEFS. I think we're ok as written. Sunday 90F in doubt but depends on newd qpf trajectory and isobars-resultant sfc wind. 00z/6 GFS MOS seems a bit cool for ens temps. I did not check NDFD nor WPC HI... but I'm prepared for a hot Tue-Fri with indications that it will remain above normal into the third week of August. Also TC may become of interest here around the 18th-19th but no thread until I see much more toughing near 80-85W (EC is more westerly flow here by that time at 500MB). Noting 00z/6 EC HI is coming back to the hotter original outlooks 2-3 days ago...possibly 1 day later. Have a good day.