bluewave

Pretty much the greatest divergence between the max and min departures for the first week of October that you will see. Saranac Lake may be the best example of this big spread. Record temperature rises and falls for early October within a few days. They were at a +9.4° max and a -2.9° min through yesterday. Climatological Data for Saranac Lake Area, NY (ThreadEx) - October 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 617 293 - - 127 0 1.11 Average 68.6 32.6 50.6 3.2 - - - Normal 59.2 35.5 47.4 - 159 0 1.14 2025-10-01 59 26 42.5 -6.4 22 0 0.00 2025-10-02 64 23 43.5 -5.0 21 0 0.00 2025-10-03 72 29 50.5 2.4 14 0 0.00 2025-10-04 77 38 57.5 9.8 7 0 0.00 2025-10-05 82 42 62.0 14.6 3 0 0.00 2025-10-06 80 36 58.0 11.0 7 0 0.00 2025-10-07 75 42 58.5 11.9 6 0 1.08 2025-10-08 59 34 46.5 0.3 18 0 0.03 2025-10-09 49 23 36.0 -9.9 29 0 0.00 2025-10-10 M M M M M M M 2025-10-11 M M M M M M M 2025-10-12 M M M M M M M 2025-10-13 M M M M M M M 2025-10-14 M M M M M M M 2025-10-15 M M M M M M M 2025-10-16 M M M M M M M 2025-10-17 M M M M M M M 2025-10-18 M M M M M M M 2025-10-19 M M M M M M M 2025-10-20 M M M M M M M 2025-10-21 M M M M M M M 2025-10-22 M M M M M M M 2025-10-23 M M M M M M M 2025-10-24 M M M M M M M 2025-10-25 M M M M M M M 2025-10-26 M M M M M M M 2025-10-27 M M M M M M M 2025-10-28 M M M M M M M 2025-10-29 M M M M M M M 2025-10-30 M M M M M M M 2025-10-31 M M M M M M M

Close to a 20° difference between 2m and 85m further to your east this morning.

My first 30s of the season here with a low of 38°.

This has pretty much been our default August and September pattern since 2022. Strong blocking in Canada with a weak low near the Northeast. Impressive to get a similar pattern for 4 years in a row.

10-22-40 was the earliest single digits that I could find for the old Sussex COOP. There used to be a station at Layton in the Delaware water gap not far from the current Walpack station with had their first single digits on 10-28-36. The earliest below 0° reading for Layton and other surrounding sites was 11-26-38. NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 1940-10-22 49 7 28.0 -21.1 Data for October 28, 1936 through October 28, 1936 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ LAYTON 3 NW COOP 9 Data for November 26, 1938 through November 26, 1938 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RUNYON COOP -7 CANOE BROOK COOP -5 LAYTON 3 NW COOP -5 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -1 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 0 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 0 BELVIDERE COOP 1 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 1 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 2 PEMBERTON COOP 4 LONG VALLEY COOP 4 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 5

Yeah, one of the only times the October minimums were lower than December for many locations. It was a great idea to put a weather station in that location to see how much lower the readings can be in the valley. The last time NJ had single digits during October was in 1940 and 1936. Monthly Data for October 1940 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 7 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11 RUNYON COOP 12 LAYTON 3 NW COOP 14 CANOE BROOK COOP 15 Monthly Data for October 1936 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAYTON 3 NW COOP 9 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10

It’s ironic that the last time Walpack dropped under 20° in October we got the historic +13 December in 2015 and they stayed above 20°. ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-18 Mesonet 47 18 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-19 Mesonet 54 19 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-06 Mesonet 49 21 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-24 Mesonet 70 40 Data for October 19, 2015 through October 19, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 20 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 22 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 23 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 23 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 23 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 23 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 24 CRANFORD COOP 24 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 24 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 24 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 25 ATSION COOP 25 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 26 ESTELL MANOR COOP 26 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 27 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 27 WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 27 CANOE BROOK COOP 27 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 27 TOCKS ISLAND COOP 27 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 Trenton Area ThreadEx 27 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 27 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 28 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 28 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 28 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 29 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 29 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 29 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 29 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 30 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 30 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31

The wildest stat is that Baltimore had 77.0” during just a few months and a total of 69.6” over the last 7 seasons.

This storm will pull the trough into the East once it passes. So we have probably seen our last 80° day of the season. But all the cold is locked up in Siberia. So the trough will capture mild Pacific air. While it will be cooler than we have been experiencing recently, the airmass isn’t that cold for October. So the cooler days will probably be a little below average but nothing too cold for mid-October. But much more comfortable and fall-like than the record heat of the last few weeks.

Yeah, must be the really strong subtropical winter ridge expansion in conjunction with the faster Pacific Jet leading to all these winter into early spring -NAO -AO Southeast ridge link ups. Been noticing that during other seasons like we are seeing next few days we can avoid the Southeast ridge link ups at times. The last really solid -NAO -AO block that delivered a classic KU event was 1-31-21. The Jan 22 events were mostly Pacific driven with +PNA -EPO +AO +NAO.

Nice to see the 12z CMC finally come on board with a more NW phase and closer to coast surface low. https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

There hasn’t been any correlation with the NAO from one month to the other with how wild the swings have become in recent years between highs and lows.

We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently.

We can say one thing for sure. The cutoff is now so deep on the EPS near the East Coast, that the trough axis stays along the East Coast next few weeks. So it does look like this past week will turn out to be the warmest of this whole month. So it’s possible that instead of 80s the warmest next few weeks is 70s with multiple days in the 60s.

I was happy for you guys back in 2009-2010 even though the jackpot that winter was to my south. You were able to get that outcome due to how cold the CONUS was that winter. Needed the 27th coldest CONUS winter at 30.70° to get such heavy snows a far south as the DC to Philly metros. Since the big shift warmer in 2015-2016, this last 2024-2025 relatively colder winter was 34.05° and the 27th warmest. So a colder winter during the post 1994-2015 snowy era was much warmer than a cold winter back in that era. The fall patterns were precursors to both winters. October 2009 was the 4th coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. October 2024 was the 2nd warmest on record. So another metric of how much warmer the climate across the seasons has warmed since 2015-2016.

Yeah, a subtropical or hybrid structure.

Yeah, we used to have the old Alden Difax machine back at college in the mid 80s. Sometimes we would come into the weather lab after the weekend and all the maps would be stuck inside. Even when the machine was working correctly, the model graphics weren’t very high detail.

https://weather.gc.ca/mainmenu/modelling_menu_e.html

The 12z Canadian is only showing up on the official site and is still OTS.

Seems like the vorts will need to phase further NW in order for the low to come further north like today. If the vorts phase further south, then it will take the low OTS. This is why earlier runs were more OTS. We’ll need a few more runs like today in order to have some confidence in the wetter scenarios. I don’t think we have seen a phasing scenario work in our favor in quite some time.

Just goes to show what a little elevation and distance west of the I-95 corridor can do.

That’s definitely not my intention. It’s just that this new and larger temperature jump in 2023-2024 is so new. We know that in the 8 year period 2015-2016 to 2022-2023 with the higher baseline temperature the ceiling at Boston was 59.9” and NYC maxed out at 40.9”. So we are all probably just taking educated guesses at to what the new ceiling at these even warmer levels will be. All we know for sure is that the most recent 7 year running average along the I-95 corridor is the lowest on record for the combined station average.

I don’t understand why anyone will come on these forums and openly mock anyone for having the courage to post long range ideas like we do here. While we may disagree from time to time, I have respect for anyone willing to make the effort of presenting their ideas. Another issue is that these temperature jumps have been occurring more frequently. So we had a longer period from 1993 to 2015 when we had similar background conditions responsible for the record seasonal snows. The more recent jump from 2015-2016 only lasted until 2024-2025 when another steep background temperature rise occurred. So it’s uncertain how much longer until we get at this new baseline before we see another big rise again. Not even sure if when I give a ceiling like 55” to 85” at Boston that this period will last long enough for something in the 70” to 85” to be even possible. Since the shorter number of years at each regime level may not allow enough time for the full temperature range to occur.

I am not sure if we will be able to forecast a season like that in advance though. It could just pop up after all the seasonal forecasts have been issued during the fall. Sometimes all it takes is one event finding the BM track and a few follow up storms behind it. But I don’t know when we could see another at least 1 month excursion like January 2022 with the brief return of the BM tracks. If we had a few more weeks of that pattern maybe Boston could have done 60-70”. Hard to say for sure.