donsutherland1

Under variably cloudy skies, the temperature rose to 90° in New York City and 91° in Newark. Farther south, near record and record heat occurred. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 98° Charlotte: 101° (old record: 100°, 1954 and 2012) Norfolk: 97° Philadelphia: 95° Raleigh: 106° (old record: 102°, 1999) ***New all-time record*** Richmond: 99° Sterling, VA: 98° Washington, DC: 98° Following showers and thundershowers tonight, tomorrow will be another very warm and humid day. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow into Sunday. Some of the thunderstorms could bring strong winds and heavy downpours. The warm and humid weather will prevail inro at least early next week with temperatures generally running several degrees above normal. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. The heat is now spreading into the Pacific Northwest. Palm Springs saw the mercury reach an all-time record-breaking 124°. Blythe reached a July record-tying 123°. Needles hit a daily record 122°. Severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +2.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.621 today.

Typo: 3 feet not 3 meters.

Today, Martz is actually complaining about headlines related to California's extreme heatwave. He posted irrelevant and cherry picked data for 105F highs at select unspecified stations to criticize the headlines. In fact, several locations could see all-time high temperature records, their longest 110F or 120F stretches on record, etc. The NWS, private sector meteorologists, and news media are all covering the extreme heat to help protect human health and lives. Martz's criticism undermines that effort with its deflection to irrelevant information. Also, most of his 10 questions are red herrings. One contains a made-up figure for possible U.S. expenditures on decarbonization. Another ignores the subsidies for fossil fuels that remain magnitudes of order above those for clean energy. His questions are raised in bad faith.

The questions reveal one that is grossly ill-informed about anthropogenic climate change, climate science literature and discussions, attribution studies, and fiscal policy. The questions are aimed not to gather useful information, but to deflect attention from climate change and silence discussions related to it. They are not good faith inquiries. ➊ To the nearest tenth of a degree Celsius, what is the “correct” global mean surface temperature (GMST)? The question is a common “red herring” aimed at deflecting attention from the rate and magnitude of warming that has occurred since pre-industrial times and the expected warming that will occur from a continued burning of fossil fuels. ➋ What does a “perfect” climate look like? If so, when did we have one and what was it like? Usually, activists will say “pre-industrial.” But, why? Pre-industrial is the starting point selected, as it largely predates the dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions that has occurred since then. Talk about a “perfect” climate is another “red herring” aimed at evading what is actually occurring. ➌ What is the “correct” amount of bad weather? How many tropical cyclones, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hailstorms, droughts, floods, heatwaves, cold waves and wildfires should there be per year globally? Please provide exact numbers and then explain why. The question is another common “red herring.” Climate change is driving an increase in heatwaves (frequency, duration, and magnitude), extreme precipitation events, flash droughts, and wildfires in some regions. It is also reducing the frequency of extreme cold outbreaks. It is also leading to an increase in intense (Category 3-5) Atlantic basin hurricanes. ➍ Why do you think temperature departures from the 1850 climatic baseline mean is the sole metric which determines human welfare? Why would the climate of the Little Ice Age be preferable than today's climate? What was better about the climate in 1850 than that of 2024? Is today's climate too dangerous? If so, why? Provide data and evidence to support your reasoning. The climate baseline is used to assess the change in temperature that has occurred since the pre-industrial age due to anthropogenic climate change. It is not and never has been used by climate scientists to make broader claims about human welfare. ➎ What is the “correct” atmospheric carbon dioxide level? What dry-air volume or a range of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would be optimal for plant growth? Show me data and explain why. The question is another “red herring.” Climate scientists reference the relatively stable pre-industrial level of CO2 (roughly 280 PPM). They also assess climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2. They do not make claims about a “correct” figure. ➏ The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was popularized as the biggest piece of climate legislation in history. But, since it was signed into law, climate activists say climate change has only gotten worse. Why? The Inflation Reduction Act, by itself, provided incentives for the use of cleaner energy sources. It contained no binding provisions for the reduction in fossil fuel production and consumption. Fossil fuel production and consumption has also continued to increase, even as clean energy usage has also increased due to the overall increase in global energy demand. As long as greenhouse gas emissions are net positive, additional warming will occur. Some climate scientists such as James Hansen believe that even when net zero is reached, there will be additional warming for some time. ➐ Trillions of taxpayer dollars have been spent on so-called “climate action” over the past 35-years. When will that give us that perfect climate, and when it does how will we know? What measure? The IMF has estimated that annual global subsidies (direct and indirect) for fossil fuels now amounts to $7 trillion globally. ➑ If the U.S. spends hundreds of trillions of dollars to decarbonize our economy to achieve “net zero” by the year 2050, then how much will it reduce GMST by the year 2100, assuming the climate models are accurate? Please round your answer to the nearest tenth of a degree Celsius and show your math! There is no evidence, budget projections, or proposals related to the U.S. spending “hundreds of trillions of dollars” on decarbonization. This is an invented figure that has no basis in reality. Projections can be made based on the greenhouse gas emissions and IPCC has offered a range of scenarios. Projections are not run for concocted make-believe scenarios. ➒ If you can't provide me with an answer to question eight, then here's my follow-up: If you don't know how much net zero emissions in the U.S. would reduce GMST by 2100, are we supposed to just spend all that money and see what happens? Question 8 has no basis in reality. No such proposals exist. If the author of the post says they do, he should provide a link or links to the appropriate documentation. Nothing like that is found in a search of CBO and OMB, projections. Ongoing modest efforts fall far short of the threshold cited by the author. ➊⓿ Why do efforts to mitigate exclusively center on reducing carbon emissions, and ignore more effective strategies such as building weather-resilient infrastructure and enforcing stricter zoning codes? Addressing climate change requires mitigation and resilience. Mitigation is required to address the principal drivers of anthropogenic climate change (greenhouse gas emissions). Resilience is needed to adapt to the realities of the evolving climate. Without mitigation, today’s resilience initiatives will “buy” only a little time in the short-term, but will be largely ineffectual e.g., planned increases in street levels in Miami would be useless against a potential 3-meter or more increase in sea levels by 2100.

Yes. The highest reliable temperature there and globally is 130F.

I agree. Even worse, that incorrect reading is recognized as the state record.

It will turn somewhat warmer and more humid starting tomorrow. Through the weekend, a shower or thundershower is possible on each day, although the greatest risk for widespread thunderstorm activity exists for Saturday into Sunday. Overall, the month looks to be warmer to much warmer than normal. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave is now getting underway. The heat could spread into the Pacific Northwest this weekend with the temperature soaring into the lower 100s in Portland. Fresno and Redding could approach or reach their records for most consecutive 110° days. Reno reach or exceed its record for most consecutive 105° days. So far, such severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first half of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +12.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.080 today.

It’s only working on my phone.

Tomorrow will be another pleasant day with abundant sunshine and fairly low humidity. Afterward, it will turn warmer. Overall, the month looks to be warmer to much warmer than normal. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration heatwave will develop this week. The heat could spread into the Pacific Northwest this weekend with the temperature soaring into the upper 90s to perhaps 100° in Portland. Fresno and Redding could approach or reach their records for most consecutive 110° days. So far, such severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first third of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.4°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +16.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.519 today.

160 mph. Cat.5.

No. Early evidence suggests that specific humidity has actually fallen in the U.S. Southwest:

NYC's June temperature summary:

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be pleasant days with abundant sunshine, low humidity, and a refreshing breeze. Afterward, it will turn warmer. Overall, the month looks to be warmer to much warmer than normal. In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration heatwave will develop this week. The heat could spread into the Pacific Northwest this weekend with the temperature soaring into the upper 90s to perhaps 100° in Portland. Fresno and Redding could approach or reach their records for most consecutive 110° days. So far, such severe heat appears unlikely in the East during at least the first third of July. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +19.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.320 today.

In an increasingly hot world driven by anthropogenic climate change, Phoenix experienced its hottest June on record with a monthly mean temperature of 97.0°. What was most noticeable this month was the duration of sustained high heat, as was the case during that city’s record 31-day stretch of 110° or above high temperatures last year. Anthropogenic climate change is driving a warming of Phoenix's summers. It is making hot patterns hotter. Hot nights are amplified by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect. Climate change is also increasing the persistence of hot patterns through wave resonance events. The observed global warming since the 1950s is unequivocal with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, being the dominant driver of that warming. Phoenix’s full-year records go back to 1896. The first summer to average 95.0° or above occurred in 2013 (95.1°). Summer 2015 matched the 2013 record. Summer 2020, which set a record for most 100° days (145) set a new benchmark at 96.7°. Three years later, that mark was incinerated by a 97.1° average summer temperature. Since 1980, Phoenix’s summers have been warming at a rate of 0.9° per decade. June is also warming rapidly. The monthly mean temperature has increased 3.2° from the 1961-1990 period to the 1991-2020 period. June 2006 was the first June to attain a mean temperature of 94.0° or above (94.6°). That mark was then broken in 2013 (94.8°) and 2021 (95.3°). The 2021 record was demolished this year. Since 2015, six of the ten Junes have had a monthly mean temperature of 94.0° or above. Put another way, June heat that was once extraordinary is now on a path toward becoming normal. Select Highlights: Updates: Phoenix's warming summers Phoenix Experiences its Hottest Summer on Record

June will be finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 75.2° in New York City. That will tie June 2024 with June 1994 as the third warmest June on record. Farther south, Baltimore recorded its 5th 96° or above high temperature this month. That ties the June record set in 1991 and tied in 2010 and 2012. July will then get off to a pleasant start. Temperatures could run somewhat below normal for the first three days before it turns warmer. Overall, the month looks to be warmer to much warmer than normal. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +13.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.907 today.

Brief gusty thunderstorm:

Absolutely. The numbers there are obviously wrong. They should not be relied upon.

The regression analysis I ran also showed a clear bias at Phoenixville relative to nearby sites. The 1915-48 period there is unreliable. I am strongly confident that Phoenixville never got close to 44 95° days.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.8 0.2

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and very warm with some showers and thunderstorms. The potential exists for some strong or severe thunderstorms. Another cooler air mass will overspread the region tomorrow night. July will then get off to a pleasant start, but the month looks warmer to much warmer than normal overall. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +26.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.176 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.3° (3.3° above normal). That would make June 2024 the third warmest June on record.

Without doubt, UHI plays a prominent role. Unfortunately, Phoenix has no nearby USCRN sites for closer comparison. I suspect that most of the pre-2000 warming was due to UHI, but most of the 2000-present warming is due to climate change. Although not a perfect proxy for Phoenix, Tucson has a nearby USCRN site (Tucson 11W). Summers have warmed at the USCRN site by 0.83° per decade since 2003 (beginning of its record). At Tucson, summers have warmed by nearly 1.26° per decade. As USCRN sites are on areas that are not being developed and have overall stable site characteristics, they provide a good measure for changes attributed solely to climate change. Comparing trends between the two sites, just under two-thirds of Tucson's summer warming (2003-2023) was attributable to climate change; nearly one-third was attributable to its expanding UHI. To cross check, I looked further at Tucson's population change from 2003-2023. Population is a good proxy for UHI. Tucson's population rose 33.8%. That is almost identical to the share of Tucson's excess warming relative to the warming at the USCRN site.

Whenever Phoenix and Tucson experience exceptional heat, climate change denial accounts attribute the heat due to the cities' Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect. They take cover behind the fact that UHI is a real phenomenon. However, on closer inspection, their argument disintegrates when comparisons are made with trends at U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) sites. Phoenix does not have a nearby USCRN site. However, Tucson does. The Tucson 11W USCRN site has seen summers warm by about 0.83F per decade since it started reporting in 2003. Tucson has seen summers warm by about 1.26F per decade during that same period. USCRN sites are those that have been selected for their stability (no changes such as urban development). Thus, they offer a good proxy for assessing changes purely due to climate change. If one assumes that the Tucson 11W provides a good proxy for the impact of climate change in the area, including Tucson, then one can attribute the additional warming of Tucson to non-AGW factors, principally UHI. That assessment finds that nearly two-thirds of the summer warming that has occurred in Tucson is due to AGW. The remainder is due to UHI. One can get greater confidence in this assessment by taking a look at the Tucson population data from 2003-2023. during that time, Tucson's population grew 33.8% which is virtually identical to the share of warmth the USCRN comparison attributes to UHI. Therefore one can confidently assert that nearly two-thirds of Tucson's increasing warmth during summers is being driven by climate change, not UHI.

This is a difficult post to make. However, it is a necessary one given the importance of data integrity and possibility others may not be fully aware of what is going on. As winter approaches and JB issues his seasonal forecast (probably a cold and snowy one, especially if he locks in his most recently hinted 2013-14 and 2014-15 analogs), one should beware that he has developed a tendency in "invent" data for lack of a better word to describe his practice. In short, if he makes claims about data to verify parts of his seasonal forecast, which follows two catastrophically bad winter seasonal forecasts, one should verify the claims. They can no longer be taken at face value. For example, below are recent claims he made about Phoenix. Almost certainly, they were made to dismiss the magnitude of its growing heat based on multiple tweets toward that end. For perspective concerning the heatwave story to which he reacted, last year he dismissed what would become the record 31-day heatwave cited by AP. Early on, he expected it to fall short of the record (18 days at the time). Once it occurred, he asserted that the previous record 18-day 1974 heatwave was more severe. In fact, the 31-day heatwave was hotter on all objective measures: average high, average low, average mean, highest maximum and highest minimum temperatures.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms that could linger into Sunday. It could burn briefly noticeably warmer on Sunday prior to the arrival of another cooler air mass. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +30.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.442 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (3.4° above normal). That would tie June 2024 with June 1966 as the second warmest June on record.

Cooler and less humid air pushed into the region today following last night's thunderstorms. A refreshing weekend lies ahead. However showers and periods of rain will likely arrive on Saturday and continue into Sunday. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +22.92 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.200 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (3.4° above normal). That would tie June 2024 with June 1966 as the second warmest June on record.