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Despite bright sunshine, temperatures rose only into the 40s across the region. A strong wind created a mid-winter feel. High temperatures included: Allentown: 45° Boston: 44° Bridgeport: 45° Hartford: 43° Islip: 45° New York City: 44° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 49° Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal. Overnight into early tomorrow, Hurricane Eta will track toward Nicaragua. At 7 pm EST, Eta's maximum sustained winds had increased to 150 mph. Eta will likely make landfall as a Category 4 or even Category 5 storm. Eta will very likely fall into the category of retired storms. How that is managed remains to be seen, as no storm named after the letters of the Greek alphabet had previously met the threshold for the retirement of its name. For perspective, the strongest November Atlantic basin hurricane was Hurricane Lenny (1999) with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Yesterday, Super Typhoon Goni became the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall, as it came ashore in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 195 mph. Scientific evidence has increased that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion). Through 7 pm EST, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-breaking 205th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. The record of 204 consecutive days occurred from May 7, 2016 through November 26, 2016. Across the Atlantic, much of western Europe experienced widespread record daily and monthly high temperatures. Record monthly temperatures included: Berlin: 68°; Frankfurt: 72°; Fritzlar, Germany: 70°; Joenkoeping, Sweden: 59°; Luxembourg: 68°; Stockholm: 59°; Wiesbaden, Germany: 72°; and, Zurich: 72°. Parts of the western United States and Canada experienced near record, daily record, and monthly record high temperatures. Select high temperatures included: Bassano, Alberta: 79°; Billings: 72°; Great Falls: 70°; and, Redmond, OR: 80°. By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +23.35. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.080. On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.041 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.236. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Finally, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was at 6.992 million square kilometers on November 1. That is the first time Arctic sea ice extent was below 7 million square kilometers on November 1. The previous record low figure was 7.034 million square kilometers, which was established in 2016. Note: 1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

Morning thoughts... At 7:45 AM, areas of snow covered large portions of central New York State including Cartland, Syracuse, and Oneida. A heavier snow shower was also located near Naugatuck in Connecticut. Today will be partly sunny, windy and cold. Some areas could see snow flurries or snow showers. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower and middle 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° During and after mid-week, an extended period of warmer temperatures is likely.

A winter like 1998-99 with widespread warmth is among the possibilities. Other scenarios still exist.

A strong cold front is now moving across the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and windy with temperatures staying in the 40s. A few locations could see some snow flurries. Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal. By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. Through 7 pm, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-tying 204th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. Las Vegas would extend its record to 195 days. The previous record there was 150 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-July 21, 1959. In addition, Phoenix saw the temperature reach 96° today. That tied the daily record set in 1924. It also tied the November record set on November 1, 1924 and tied on November 2, 1924 and November 3, 2009. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +28.76. That is the highest SOI value since April 2, 2018 when the SOI was +31.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.546. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.235 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.371. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Morning thoughts... At 7:45 AM, an area of rain associated with an advancing cold front stretched from Ohio into Ontario. Another area of rain and showers that extended from portions of South Carolina into Virginia was heading northeastward. Clouds will increase during the day and some showers and periods of rain are likely during the afternoon and evening hours. It will be mild. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 58° Tomorrow will be very windy, blustery and cold. Some snow flurries and heavier snow showers are possible in parts of the region. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 63.4° Average temperature: 63.2° Average error: 1.3° Newark: Average daily forecast: 65.8° Average temperature: 65.4° Average error: 1.7° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 66.7° Average temperature: 67.1° Average error: 1.3°

A Very Warm October Concludes in Phoenix Today, the temperature rose to 86° at Phoenix. That concluded an abnormally warm October and, by far, the warmest June-October period on record in Phoenix. October Averages: Mean Temperature: 80.9° (4th warmest) High Temperature: 95.0° (3rd warmest) Low Temperature: 66.8° (14th warmest) Days 100° or Above: 12 (2nd most) Days 105° or Above: 5 (old record: 2, 1980) June-October Averages: Mean Temperature: 92.5° (Old record: 91.5°, 2003) High Temperature: 104.9° (Old record: 103.0°, 2003) Low Temperature: 80.1° (Old record: Tie 80.0°, 2003 and 2015) As a result of October's 12 100° or above days, 2020 set a new record of 145 such days. The old record was 143 days, which was set in 1989. Table 1: Most 100° or Above Days during a Calendar Year Table 2: 30-Year Moving Average of 100° or Above Days Table 3: Progression of the Records for 100°+, 105°+, 110°+, and 115°+ Days Table 4: 100° or Above Temperatures that Tied or Set Daily Records:

Despite abundant sunshine, much of the region saw high temperatures reach no higher than the 40s. October 2020 had a monthly mean temperature of 57.9°, which was 1.0° above normal. Parts of New England experienced a historic October snowfall yesterday. Select seasonal snowfall totals through today are: Albany: 1.2" (2019-2020: 49.7") Boston: 4.3" (2019-2020: 15.8") Caribou: 1.5" (2019-2020: 151.9") November will commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop latter part of the first week of November. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal and November should wind up somewhat warmer than normal overall (1° to 2° above normal). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +20.30. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.209. On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.369 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.277. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the middle 40s making for a perfect mid-autumn day. Three photos:

The CFSv2 has so far been closer on the progression of the La Niña than some of the other guidance. October will likely have a Region 3.4 anomaly of -1.5 C to -1.3 C. November and December should have even colder anomalies if much of the guidance is reasonably accurate as to the progression. That could result in a tri-monthly figure of -1.5 C or below.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.7 3.6 3.5 2.1 Snowfall DCA : 6.0" NYC : 11.5" BOS : 28.0" ORD : 38.5" DTW : 44.0" BUF : 87.0" DEN : 57.5" BTV : 72.9" SEA : 3.4"

As expected, even as many parts of the region saw the coldest October temperatures in 32 years, temperatures were much warmer than those forecast by the Parallel GFS. This recent example is illustrative of the issue one may see on several occasions during the winter where this model shows extreme cold in the medium or extended range. Without support from the other guidance, one should be wary if this model is a cold outlier. The general idea of coming cold was good (and seen by the other guidance). The magnitude of the cold is where this model had its problems.

Morning thoughts... As of 8:00 AM, low temperatures around the region included: Albany: 19°; Allentown: 26°; Boston: 28°; Bridgeport: 31°; Danbury: 23°; Harrisburg: 35°; Hartford: 24°; Islip: 29°; New York City: 32°; Newark: 32°; Philadelphia: 34°; Poughkeepsie: 23°; Scranton: 28°; and, White Plains: 28° That was New York City’s first October freeze since way back on October 31, 1988 when the mercury fell to 31°. Thick frost was present across much of the region. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures will moderate during the daytime. Nevertheless high temperatures will rise no higher than the 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 49° Tomorrow will be milder, but an approaching cold front will bring periods of rain.

Yes. First October freeze there since October 31, 1988.

Thanks, Jerry. We’re well. I hope your family and you stay healthy and enjoy a good winter.

Central Park has reached 32 degrees. That is New York City’s first October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31 degrees.

The MJO was in Phase 2 in 2011, but is currently in Phase 7.

Today, a cold rain fell in New York City and just outside the City, snow fell. Across parts of northern Pennsylvania, central New York State down into the Hudson Valley and central New England, there was accumulating snow. Boston experienced its biggest October snowfall on record with 4.3" snow. The previous daily record for October was 0.6", which was set in 2011. Boston's previous biggest October snowfall was 1.1", which fell on October 29, 2005. Boston's Measurable Snowfalls for October are: October 29, 2005: 1.1" October 18, 2009: 0.1" October 29, 2011: 0.4" October 30, 2011: 0.6" October 30, 2020: 4.3" There were similarities between the October 2011 snowfall and today's snowfall in that both the ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3.4 regions had cold anomalies, the AO and NAO were positive, and the PNA was negative. October 29-30, 2011 Snowfall: October ENSO R1+2 Anomaly: -0.60 October ENSO R3.4 Anomaly: -0.97 AO: +0.944 NAO: +0.199 PNA: -0.027 October 30, 2020 Snowfall: October ENSO R1+2 Anomaly: -1.17 (through week centered around October 23) October ENSO R3.4 Anomaly: -1.33 (through week centered around October 23) AO: +1.352 NAO: +0.471 PNA: -0.541 The MJO was in a different phase. During the 2011 snowfall, the MJO was in Phase 2 (Amplitude: 1.253). This time around, it was in Phase 7 (10/29 Amplitude: 1.277). Select snowfall figures included: Albany: 1.2" Binghamton: 0.3" Boston: 4.3" Bridgeport: Trace Foster, RI: 6.2" Grafton, MA: 7.6" Hartford: 1.8" Islip: Trace Newark: Trace Providence: 1.1" Worcester: 4.1" October will start out with many locations near or below freezing. New York City's suburbs will likely see temperatures fall into the 20s. November will commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +0.19. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.352. On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.277 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.275. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.9°.

Some areas on the North Shore have reported snow.

From Greenwich, CT:

POU is now reporting light snow.

Morning thoughts... At 7:15 AM, a cold rain was falling across parts of the region. In parts of northern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State and central New England, snow was falling. At Albany, it was 30° with light snow. Likely daytime high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 46° After a cold start, tomorrow will be fair and chilly.

Tropical Storm Zeta has already brought a soaking rain to the region. Through 8 pm EDT, rainfall totals include: Allentown: 1.20" Baltimore: 2.16" Bridgeport: 1.11" Harrisburg: 1.07" Islip: 1.14" New York City: 1.41" Newark: 1.47" Philadelphia: 1.51" Washington, DC: 2.18" Zeta is racing east-northeastward at 55 mph and will be moving back over the Atlantic Ocean. As it heads out to sea, much colder air from eastern Canada will be drawn into its circulation. At the same time, another area of rain that stretches from eastern Missouri to western New York State will head toward the region. As a result, at least some snowfall is likely in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State down to parts of the Hudson Valley, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. The remainder of the region will see periods of rain well into tomorrow. November will likely commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -13.93. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.828. On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.266 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.628. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8°.

A quick video clip:

With 4.2” snow at Albuquerque, October 2020 is that city’s snowiest October on record. The previous snowiest October was 1986 when 3.2” snow was measured.

Morning thoughts... Tropical Storm Zeta will race northeastward and then east-northeastward toward the Middle Atlantic region before moving off the Delmarva Peninsula or perhaps New Jersey coast out into the Atlantic Ocean this evening. It will be increasingly windy with periods of heavy rain. A general 1”-3” rainfall is likely. The temperature will gradually fall from its 7 AM figures. 7 AM temperatures around the region included: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Tonight into tomorrow, portions of northern Pennsylvania, central New York State extending down into parts of the Hudson Valley, and central New England could see some snow. Precipitation will end tomorrow and it will be blustery with readings likely staying in the 40s.