donsutherland1

At 11 am, the temperature at Caribou, ME was 71°. That surpassed the monthly record of 69°, which was set just yesterday. This is Caribou's latest 70° or above temperature on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and still warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 74° Later this week, cooler but not unseasonably cold air could arrive. As some moisture from the slow-moving Eta gets drawn northward along an approaching frontal system , the region could experience a moderate to significant rainfall later Wednesday through Thursday.

Under abundant sunshine, record high temperatures fell across the northeastern United States and parts of southern Canada. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 76° (tied daily record set in 1986) Baltimore: 77° (old record: 75°, 1994) Bangor: 68° (old record: 65°, 1938) Binghamton: 71° (old record: 66°, 1975 and 2009) Buffalo: 76° (old record: 70°, 1891) Burlington: 71° (old record: 68°, 2011) Caribou: 69° (old record: 64°, 1996) ***New November Record*** Chibougamau, Quebec: 62° (old record: 51°, 1945) Chicago: 76° (old record: 74°, 1999) Cleveland: 76° (old record: 74°, 1931 and 1975) Concord: 75° (old record: 74°, 1945) Detroit: 77° (old record: 75°, 1999) Harrisburg: 76° (old record: 75°, 1895) Hartford: 74° Islip: 74° (old record: 73°, 1975) Manchester, NH: 75° (old record: 71°, 2009) Milwaukee: 76° (old record: 75°, 1999) Montreal 67° (tied daily record set in 1945) New York City-JFK: 74° (old record: 73°, 1975 and 1994) New York City-LGA: 78° (old record: 72°, 1945 and 1986) New York City-NYC: 75° (tied daily record set in 1975) Newark: 77° (old record: 75°, 1975) Ottawa: 72° (old record: 65°, 2009 and 2011) Philadelphia: 75° Poughkeepsie: 78° (old record: 75°, 1975) Providence: 75° (old record: 74°, 1945) Rochester: 77° (old record: 74°, 1931 and 1999) Rockford, IL: 77° (old record: 74°, 1999) Scranton: 75° (old record: 72°, 1975) Syracuse: 77° (old record: 74°, 1931) Toledo: 80° (old record: 74°, 1999) ***Tied November Record; Latest 80° Temperature*** Washington, DC: 75° Westhampton: 72° (old record: 68°, 2006) White Plains: 75° (old record: 71°, 1975) Worcester: 74° (old record: 71°, 1945) Tomorrow will be another very warm day with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Afterward, the region could experience a significant rainfall during Wednesday and Thursday as moisture from Eta gets drawn northward along a slowly advancing cold front. In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The second half of November is likely to wind up warmer than normal, even as it could start with near or even slightly below normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +2.48. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.442. On November 8 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.992 (RMM). The November 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.220. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

As has been covered by @bluewave, Newark has just recorded its November record 5th consecutive 70-degree day.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 75° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions reamins underway. After midweek, cooler but not unseasonably cold air could arrive. As moisture from Eta gets drawn northward along an approaching frontal system , the region could experience a significant rainfall later Wednesday through Thursday. Finally, Needles, CA picked up 0.03” rain yesterday. That ended Needles’ record 210-day streak without measurable precipitation. The previous record was 204 days.

Today saw more widespread near record and record warm temperatures. High temperatures included: Albany: 72° Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1975) Atlantic City: 79° (old record: 72°, 1975, 2009, and 2011) Baltimore: 78° Boston: 70° Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 71°, 1975) Burlington: 72° Chicago: 76° (old record: 73°, 1931) Cleveland: 77° (old record: 72°, 1879, 1881, and 1945) Detroit: 73° (old record: 71°, 1915) Harrisburg: 75° Hartford: 75° Islip: 76° (old record: 70°, 2011) New York City: 75° Newark: 77° (old record: 76°, 1975) Philadelphia: 76° Pittsburgh: 74° Providence: 75° (old record: 73°, 1945) Poughkeepsie: 76° (old record: 73°, 1975) Washington, DC: 74° In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, the above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +13.36. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.195. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.229 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.047. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

We’ll probably have a better idea as we head toward December. If the polar vortex strengthens toward December, that could provide a strong clue as to the likely predominant state of the AO.

Under bright sunshine, the region saw near record and record warm temperatures. At Central Park, the temperature rose to 75°. At Islip, the temperature reached a record 76° and Newark saw a record 77° high temperature. Overall, the weather was perfect for enjoying the fall colors. Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden: One short video clip along the Bronx River at the New York Botanical Garden:

I agree. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Detroit also comes out close to normal (wide variation year-to-year) among the EPO+/AO+ cases I referenced in last evening’s post.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 76° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions reamins underway. After midweek, cooler but not unseasonably cold air could arrive.

Looking through my data, I actually had a typo. There were 11 (10/11 or 91% had an EPO+). Those winters were: 1954-55, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1973-74, 1983-84, 1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2007-08, and 2016-17. 1995-96 and the EPO- (along with an AO-).

Under dazzling sunshine, the temperature soared into the 70s in much of the Great Lakes region and Northeast. High temperatures included: Albany: 70° Baltimore: 77° Bangor: 71° (old record: 66°, 1975) Boston: 74° Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 68°, 1975) Burlington: 71° Chicago: 72° Detroit: 71° (old record: 70°, 1916) Harrisburg: 74° Hartford: 79° (old record: 74°, 1975) Islip: 74° (old record: 67°, 1971 and 1975) New York City: 74° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 75° Portland, ME: 74° (old record: 65°, 1975) ***Tied November Record*** Poughkeepsie: 75° (old record: 74°, 1938) Providence: 76° (old record: 74°, 1938) Washington, DC: 74° From tomorrow into early next week, exceptional warmth will be focused on the Great Lakes Region, southern Ontario, southern Quebec and the northeastern United States. As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will continue to become established in the Western third of the United States. From tonight into Monday, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm. Parts of Montana, including Great Falls, which has already received 28.0" snow this season, could experience blizzard conditions with 12"-18" snow. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, the above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +6.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.114. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.047 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.672. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

Today, the temperature soared into the middle 70s in the New York City area under brilliant November sunshine. Two photos from this afternoon:

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and even middle 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 73° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is underway.

Temperatures rose into the 70s in many parts of the region today. High temperatures included: Albany: 70°; Allentown: 70°; Baltimore: 75°; Boston: 72°; Bridgeport: 67°; Harrisburg: 71°; Hartford: 75°; Islip: 66°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 73°; Philadelphia: 71°; Providence: 72° (tied record set in 1959 and tied in 1994 and 2015); Poughkeepsie: 73°; Washington, DC: 70°; and, White Plains: 70°. Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Record warmth again extended across the Plains States, parts of Canada and into the Great Lakes Region. Record high temperatures included: Caribou: 66° (old record: 63°, 1959) Duluth: 75° (old record: 70°, 2016) ***New November Record*** Eau Claire, WI: 75° (old record: 70°, 1916 and 2016) Green Bay: 72° (old record: 69°, 2016) Milwaukee: 74° (old record: 70°, 2016) Minneapolis: 75° (old record: 73°, 1893) North Platte, NE: 87° (old record: 82°, 1980) ***New November Record*** Rhinelander, WI: 73° (old record: 70°, 2016) Rockford, IL: 76° (old recorfd: 74°, 1916 and 1924) Sioux Falls, SD: 82° (old record: 73°, 2004) ***New November Record*** The core of the exceptional warmth that has been setting records across the Plains States into the Great Lakes region will gradually shift eastward. This weekend into the start of next week, it will be focused on the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario and Quebec. As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will become established in the Western third of the United States. From tomorrow night into Monday, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The probability that November will have a mean temperature of 50° or above in Central Park has increased. The last time that occurred was 2015. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was -4.71. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.257. On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.675 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.748. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 60 and lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is underway.

Temperatures rose into the upper 60s with some lower 70s across the region today. Tomorrow could be several degrees warmer in many parts of the region. Widespread record warmth again prevailed in the western half of the United States from the Southwest into the Northern Plains. Records included: Bismarck: 77° (old record: 76°, 2016) El Paso: 85° (old record: 82°, 1916, 1924 and 1945) Helena: 76° (old record: 68°, 2001) ***New November Record*** Missoula, MT: 69° (old record: 67°, 1934 and 2012) Montreal: 69° (old record: 66°, 1988) Phoenix: 99° (old record: 93°, 2007) ***New November Record*** Rapid City: 79° (old record: 77°, 2016) Scottsbluff, NE: 81° (old record: 79°, 1914) Tucson: 94° (old record: 92°, 2009) ***Tied November Record*** The core of the exceptional warmth that has been setting records across the Plains States into the Great Lakes region will gradually shift eastward. This weekend into the start of next week, it will be focused on the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario and Quebec. As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will become established in the Western third of the United States. By the end of the weekend or early next week, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The probability that November will have a mean temperature of 50° or above in Central Park has increased. The last time that occurred was 2015. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was -5.79. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.694. That is the highest AO figure since March 24, 2020 when the AO was +3.968. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.748 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.748. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

Phoenix Experiences its Warmest 5-Day November Period on Record Today, the temperature rose to 99° at Phoenix. That surpassed the previous November record by 3°. It also contributed to both the warmest November 1-5 on record and warmest 5-day November period on record. November 1-5 Averages: High Temperature: 95.2° (1st Warmest: old record: 92.2°, 1924) Low Temperature: 65.2° (2nd Warmest) Mean Temperature: 80.2° (1st Warmest; old record: 77.7°, 2001) Days 95° or Above: 3 (old record: 2, 1924) Since 1895, Phoenix has had just 7 November days on which the temperature reached 95° or above. Those days are: November 1, 1924: 96° November 2, 1924: 96° November 4, 2001: 95° November 3, 2009: 96° November 1, 2020: 96° November 2, 2020: 95° November 5, 2020: 99° As a result, Phoenix has now had 172 days on which the temperature has reached 95° or above during 2020. The old record was 166 days, which was set in 1989. In terms of the warmest 5-day November period on record, the average high temperature surpassed the old record of 93.0°, which was set during November 3-7, 2007. The average mean temperature eclipsed the previous mark of 78.9°, which was set during November 4-8, 2007. The previous latest 5-day period with an average high temperature of 95.0° or above was October 26-30, 2016 when the average high temperature was 95.6°. The previous latest 5-day period with an average temperature of 80.0° or above was October 29-November 2, 1988 when the temperature averaged 80.1°. Table 1: Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Table 2: Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

The Euro Monthly Guidance is very warm. Hopefully, it won’t verify.

The pieces are starting to fall into place for an EPO+/AO+ winter.

The record is 7 days, which occurred in 1953.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 68° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is now underway.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow will be even warmer. Some locations could approach or reach 70°. Record-tying and record-breaking warmth prevailed from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region today. High temperatures included: Bismarck: 76° (old record: 75°, 1975) Chicago: 74° (tied record set in 1978) Duluth: 73° (old record: 71°, 1903) ***Tied November Record*** Fargo: 74° (old record: 70°, 1975) ***Tied November Record*** Grand Island, NE: 84° (old record: 79°, 2016) International Falls, MN: 74° (old record: 67°, 1975) ***New November Record*** Milwaukee: 73° (tied record set in 2008) Minneapolis: 74° (tied record set in 1975) Scottsbluff, NE: 80° (old record: 79°, 1924) ***Tied November Record*** Wausau, WI: 72° (old record: 70°, 2008) This area of much above normal temperatures will again cover the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region tomorrow. Afterward, this exceptional warmth will shift eastward and be centered over the Great Lakes Region and eastward. Phoenix, coming off its hottest June-October on record could reach or exceed its November record high temperature of 96°, which was tied on November 1. During the weekend, this warmth be centered over the Great Lakes region and southern Ontario into southern Quebec. As a result, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +3.37. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.919. That is the highest AO figure since March 14, 2020 when the AO was +2.928. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.977. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° The start of an extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is imminent.