donsutherland1

Michael Mann has degrees in applied mathematics and physics, physics, and geology and geophysics. He is eminently qualified to research climate and has had breakthrough work related to proxies and temperatures. The atmosphere is a single part of the earth's climate system. One does not need a degree in atmospheric science or meteorology to study climate. Meteorology is a different field. Over his career, Mann has published or co-published more than 400 peer-reviewed articles. To dismiss him as a "climate activist" rather than the serious researcher he is, is absurd. He is taking a visible role in educating and informing the public about the climate change, its causes, its implications, etc. At the same time, he is continuing to research and publish.

Scientists have a very high level of confidence that the ongoing warming, including heating of the oceans is related to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The earth's energy imbalance has persisted despite fluctuations in solar irradiance. Consistent with the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, oceanic heat has been increasing. No credible alternative theories to the consensus AGW position have emerged, especially in the recent scientific literature. What about the 1930s? Excerpts from a relevant paper that looked at longer periods of time: Daily in situ measurements of ocean temperature at century-long monitoring sites were used to examine MHW properties over multi-decadal time scales. We selected six stations for which centennial-scale records (89–111 years) of daily ocean temperatures were available: Arendal (Norway), Port Erin (UK), Race Rocks (Canada) and Pacific Grove, Scripps Pier, and Newport Beach (USA; Table 1). Changes over time were calculated between early and late 30-year periods shared across all stations (1925–1954 and 1984–2013, respectively). All stations, except Newport Beach, exhibited annual mean SST warming of between 0.37 °C and 0.78 °C (p < 0.05); Newport Beach exhibited a non-significant change in SST (−0.003 °C, p > 0.05). There was clear centennial increase in annual MHW frequency at all stations (Fig. 4a–f, black lines). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03732-9 Greenhouse gases explain most of the warming that has occurred since the mid-20th century and especially in recent decades. During the most recent period, natural forcings would have suggested a slight cooling.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 -0.3 -0.1 3.5 4.7 4.3

Morning thoughts... A storm that moved along an advancing cold front brought a soaking rain to much of the region into early this morning. Rainfall totals through 8 am included: Allentown: 1.49" Bridgeport: 0.85" Islip: 0.39" New York City: 1.61" Newark: 1.48" Philadelphia: 2.13" Poughkeepsie: 2.54" Scranton: 1.37" White Plains: 1.55" As the storm pulls away, clouds will give way to sunshine. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Likely afternoon high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 70° The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal.

A frontal boundary will cross the region tonight into tomorrow with a storm moving northward along that front. The region will likely see a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall by the time the storm departs tomorrow. Eastern New England will likely see lesser amounts. Some pockets of amounts in excess of 2.50" are likely. The month will end on a mild note. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of near 95.4°. That would exceed the previous June-August record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. A cool shot is likely during the opening week of October, but warmer readings could return during the following week. The latest EPS weeklies favor the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern for the second half of October. Overall, October will likely be somewhat warmer than normal in much of the region. October could be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +7.01. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.139. On September 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.495 (RMM). The September 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.277. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.8°.

Morning thoughts... At 9:10 am, a cold front stretched from central Alabama to central Quebec. Showers and thundershowers accompanied that front. A storm will develop along that front and bring a widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall to much of the region from later today into tomorrow. Some areas could pick up enhanced rainfall amounts in excess of 2.50". Overall, today will be mainly cloudy with some showers and perhaps thundershowers. Steadier rain will likely develop during the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 76° Tomorrow will still be mild, but cooler air will arrive to start October.

2016-17 would be a major upgrade from the non-winter we just went through. Hopefully, the coming winter will be far better.

Excerpts from Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann’s Newsweek column: My colleagues and I have just published an article in the journal Nature Climate Change showing that the oceans are not only becoming more stable, but are doing so faster than was previously thought. Led by Guancheng Li of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in China, our team (which also includes Lijing Cheng, Jiang Zhu, Kevin Trenberth and John P. Abraham) analyzed a quantitative measure of stability known as "stratification". We found that the stratification of the world oceans is not only increasing, but is doing so at a greater rate than estimated in previous studies. Our study uses more comprehensive data and a more sophisticated method for estimating stratification changes, and we found a nearly 6 percent increase in the stratification of the upper 200 meters (~650 feet) of the world oceans over the past half century.... That's bad for a number of reasons. As we currently watch the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record play out, a key underlying factor is the anomalous surface warmth of the tropical Atlantic. The increasingly intense and damaging hurricanes we've seen in recent years have fed off warmer surface waters. More stably stratified waters tend to inhibit the wind-driven mixing up of cold deeper waters that often serves as a sort of release-valve, shutting off the source of energy at the surface that intensifies these storms. A more stably stratified ocean potentially favors more intense, destructive hurricanes. Warmer waters absorb less atmospheric carbon dioxide (just as warm soda loses its carbonation faster when you open the top.) Less ocean mixing also means that less of the atmospheric carbon dioxide gets buried beneath the ocean surface. So carbon pollution accumulates even faster in the atmosphere, causing yet more warming. The paper can be found here: https://psu.app.box.com/s/2j7cynrci6xlkkoe70cnbqn04dpbr2bd Here’s a simplified summary: https://news.psu.edu/story/633153/2020/09/28/research/increasing-stability-decreases-ocean-productivity-reduces-carbon#

Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon. In response, the temperature rose into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A frontal boundary will approach the region later tomorrow and a storm will develop along the front and move northward. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the region will likely see a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of near 95.4°. That would exceed the previous June-August record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. A cool shot is likely during the opening week of October, but warmer readings could return during the following week. The latest EPS weeklies favor the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern for the second half of October. October could be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +8.62. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.139. On September 27 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.275 (RMM). The September 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.392. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.7°.

One additional note: Even as the ECMWF is increasing public access to its data, it appears that the opposite trend is in its early stages in the U.S. One example: https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/index.html If one goes to the referenced Amazon site, one finds grib files only through 2019. Maintenance of webpages with simple graphs or tables isn’t costly.

It's possible that he may simply have little understanding of paleoclimatology and how paleoclimatologists construct hemispheric and global temperature records, why one can have confidence in such records (especially when error bars are provided), etc. Meteorology/atmospheric science is a different field from paleoclimatology. Nevertheless, the basic statistical issue concerning the need to draw representative samples to gain insight into a population applies. In this case, the population is global temperatures during the MWP and LIA and the sample needs to include a sufficient number of proxies from around the world to provide a representative picture of the global temperatures.

A quick note: The posted chart does not include the most recent warming. It ends 95 years before present with 1950 constituting the present (thanks @bdgwx for that info.).

In part, the news article states: The changes are part of wider moves across Europe to make public sector data free and open, to encourage innovation and to support a thriving, data-based digital economy. Charts will cover the whole world, all types of weather situations including extreme events, and, very importantly, will also include probability-based information, providing guidance on forecast confidence. This approach is consistent with the openness that is an inherent part of science. The real value added is not from who has access to the data itself, but with what one does with the data. Limited access to the data creates barriers to innovation. The ECMWF recognizes where the source of value existing in explaining that its providing open access to its data is to encourage innovation. This is a positive development that will benefit the overall forecasting field. Rich opportunity to use the data to create customized and targeted solutions, maps, etc., will enhance forecasts and also afford the private sector forecasting community the ability to build and sustain revenue streams.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mainly cloudy with perhaps a few widely scattered showers. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 80° The temperature will likely remain above normal through the remainder of the month. Cooler air will arrive to start October.

The issue of the MWP and LIA has already been addressed by several people here at several times. Different proxies examined from different parts of the world show that the MWP and LIA were regional, not global, events. Three papers and the abstract of another (the full copy of which can be requested from the authors): https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1797.epdf?sharing_token=Pm1NFtFxqxcwIUqtvBVOsdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OXdKps0x-mydYxlxY1CTS2FraCgd_SIOyFr3Frnr2wB7rEiUt5oncmTKp32KflJCHeITcA-EqP5p3xfWpkUotuN0E3ir4Us_bcTtsZ27MrFmdPv9A4iznKkWIxs3GlY8t2zgJ1RqKr1SMAGJNtp3FZCGkf9OhfrosIZ6HA_48P3A%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.realclimate.org http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MannetalScience09.pdf https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/11/e1500806 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334662695_No_evidence_for_globally_coherent_warm_and_cold_periods_over_the_preindustrial_Common_Era Finally, relying on a single proxy in one particular location to make a continental or global judgment is no different from relying on the temperature record of one location and making a similar judgment. If one wouldn’t make judgments about North America, the Northern Hemisphere or global temperatures based on the temperature record of let’s say only Seattle, why should one make similar judgments strictly from a single ice core measurement?

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and continued warm. However, Tuesday through Thursday could be a wet period. The potential exists for a coastal storm to develop that could bring 1.00" or more rain to parts of the region. Temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. Phoenix reached 102° today. That was Phoenix's 130th 100° day. Only 1989 with 143 such days had more. Phoenix has an implied 99% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of near 95.4°. That would exceed the previous June-August record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. A cool shot is likely during the opening week of October, but warmer readings could return during the following week. October could be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +11.41. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.162. On September 26, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.388 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.350. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.7°.

I have a lot of confidence in peer review. Even with its limitations, it is the most effective means for evaluating and validating research. Nothing else compares. Further, just because climate research has all but rejected unproved alternative climate claims and peer review filters out claims for which there is little credible support does not mean that climate research has been set back. Climate research has made remarkable strides in explaining things that were poorly understood even a few decades ago. Much more remains to be learned, but the overall foundations of climate science are strong.

Scientists recognize that, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the atmosphere holds approximately 7% more water vapor for ever 1 degree C warming. So, there’s little question that the initial warming also led to some increase in the atmospheric water vapor, as one feedback. The increase in water vapor amplified the warming. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2008/02/common-climate-misconceptions-the-water-vapor-feedback-2/ The major focus of the studies has been greenhouse gas forcing given its importance to the overall climate system. If the link between CO2 and global temperatures is “insanity,” even setting aside physics related to CO2’s properties, one should find a large number of research papers making exactly that case.

The problem arises when one tries to view climate through the lens of weather. Doing so only promotes misunderstanding. Weather and climate are not the same thing. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/weather-vs-climate Therefore, weather models and climate models are not the same thing. Some of the constraints that limit day-to-day weather forecasts beyond a few days are irrelevant at the much longer timeframes used in climate. For example, one can’t forecast what the high temperature in Phoenix would be two weeks away with much precision. In contrast, one can forecast decadal averages for summer temperatures with far better accuracy. The RCP 4.5 scenario run in 2005 suggested that Phoenix would have an average summer (June 1-August 31) high temperature of 106.3 degrees for the 2011-20 period. In fact, the average summer high temperature was 106.4 degrees. Errors are larger for some locations, but overall the errors are typically less than 2 degrees and often less than 1 degree. On a hemispheric or global scale, the errors are even smaller than the regional ones. Overall, there is little question that the climate models provide useful information. They are also quite accurate. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL085378 This is where the models add a lot of insight and it is within that global context that the IPCC can have very high confidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the predominant driver of the world’s ongoing observed warming.

The literature cites increasing Arctic solar insolation, often from fluctuations in the earth’s orbit, as one of the natural mechanisms that kicks off the initial warming. As temperatures rise, stored carbon is unlocked and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide increases. In turn, the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide promotes additional warming. Given the physical properties of carbon dioxide, it should make no difference how the stored carbon dioxide is released. The impact should be the same if the physical properties of CO2 are understood correctly. The observed ongoing warming is consistent with what one would expect when atmospheric carbon dioxide increases. I said nothing about feedbacks, as one is dealing with the much larger issue of forcings. Additional feedbacks, some of which are non-linear and some of which are still poorly understood, influence how much warming actually takes place. Nevertheless, the general scientific conclusion concerning the role increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing has played in driving ongoing warming is a very high confidence matter in science. The confidence level will likely be 99%-100% when the IPCC publishes its next assessment (an increase from the current 95% figure). I strongly disagree that the objectivity of climate scientists has been corrupted by “money, fame, power and egos.” If anything, it is the movement that rejects AGW that faces that problem. It offers no credible empirically-supported alternative to AGW. It increasingly evades the research and publication route by which scientific knowledge is built/expanded/revised, likely because it is trapped by the limits imposed by science itself and it cannot bear subjecting its lack of alternative to rigorous scrutiny. Absent a concrete scientific basis for its positions, it increasingly displays motivated reasoning consistent with its sources of funding (often fossil fuel-related interests).

The “lag” issue has been explained numerous times: Step 1: Begin the release of CO2 — initial warming kicked off by natural processes was the mechanism Step 2: Amplify the initial rise in temperatures — increasing atmospheric CO2 amplified the initial rise in temperatures. Since the Industrial Revolution and especially during the 20th century and beyond, humanity has substituted itself for the natural mechanism in releasing CO2. Atmospheric CO2 is increasing and ongoing warming is the result. This is the expected climate response. The only way one can claim that humanity has no role in driving current developments would if CO2’s physical properties were somehow altered only when human activities released it. Under such a claim, the rising concentration would be minor to irrelevant. That’s not the case.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mainly cloudy with perhaps a few widely scattered showers. Temperatures will likely reach the middle to perhaps upper 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 79° The temperature will likely remain above normal through the remainder of the month. Cooler air will arrive to start October.

During the summer and early fall (early spring in the Southern Hemisphere), numerous daily and monthly high temperature records, including some all-time high temperature records, along with monthly mean temperature records were broken. A number of locations experienced their hottest summer on record. July 2020 was Phoenix’s hottest month on record. August 2020 was even hotter. Summer 2020 was, by far, Phoenix’s hottest summer on record. Parts of South America and Southern Africa are currently experiencing their most intense early spring heat on record. Research demonstrates that climate change has led to an increase in summertime high temperature records, which are tied to prolonged heat waves, by more than a factor of ten. There is approximately an 80% probability that the new records have been made possible by anthropogenic climate change. Further increases in such records are likely in coming decades as the world’s climate continues to warm. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234114398_Global_increase_in_record-breaking_monthly-mean_temperatures

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures rose mainly into the middle 70s across the region. In parts of South America, a historic early spring heatwave toppled monthly records. Some monthly records included: Asuncion, Paraguay: 108° Corrientes, Argentina: 109° Foz Do Iguacu, Brazil: 102° Pozo Hondo, Paraguay: 114° ***New all-time national high temperature record*** Meanwhile, in parts of Europe, early-season snows blanketed even the lower elevations of the Alps. Temperatures will likely remain at generally above normal levels for the remainder of September. A cool shot is likely during the opening week of October, but warmer readings could return during the following week. Phoenix has an implied 95% probability of recording just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above. The most recent such occurrence was 2018 with a mean temperature of 91.8°. Phoenix will very likely record its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of near 95.4°. That would exceed the previous June-August record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. The existing record is 93.9°, which was set in 2011. October could be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +16.11. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.683. On September 25, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.350 (RMM). The September 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.442. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6°.

Abstract: Extreme weather events in Asia have been occurring with increasing frequency as the globe warms in response to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many of these events arise from weather regimes that persist over a region for days or even weeks, resulting in disruptive heatwaves, droughts, flooding, snowfalls, and cold spells. We investigate changes in the persistence of large-scale weather systems through a pattern-recognition approach based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Asian continent. By tracking consecutive days that the atmosphere resides in a particular pattern, we identify long-duration events (LDEs), defined as lasting longer than three days, and measure their frequency of occurrence over time in each pattern. We find that regimes featuring positive height anomalies in high latitudes are occurring more often as the Arctic warms faster than mid-latitudes, both in the recent past and in model projections for the twenty-first century assuming unabated greenhouse gas emissions. The increased dominance of these patterns corresponds to a higher likelihood of LDEs, suggesting that persistent weather conditions will occur more frequently. By mapping observed temperature and precipitation extremes onto each atmospheric regime, we gain insight into the types of disruptive weather events that will become more prevalent as particular patterns become more common. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71945-4