donsutherland1

Short video clip of the passage of the squall line:

At 7:40 pm, a squall line with briefly heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and damaging winds was pushing rapidly eastward from northwest New Jersey. Ahead of the front, winds were gusting past 40 mph and the temperature had risen into the 60s. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +9.92. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.415. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.166 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°.

This afternoon saw increasingly gusty winds along the Long Island Sound. The temperature was in the upper 50s.

Morning thoughts... Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. During the late afternoon or evening, a cold front will cross the region with a possible squall line, brief period of heavy rain, and possible thunder and high winds. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 50s and lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 63° Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold.

A strong cold front will move across the region late tomorrow afternoon or evening. The frontal passage could be marked by a squall line with thunder, briefly heavy rain, and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Behind the front, Monday will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +17.69. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.134. On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.117 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.299. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny but cool. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° A cold front will move across the region during the latter part of tomorrow afternoon or during the evening. The frontal passage could be marked by a squall line with thunder, a brief period of heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold.

The exceptional warmth was well east of Greenland. It was focused on an area extending from Scandinavia to northwestern Russia.

This place is in the high Arctic at 78N latitude. For perspective, the average July high temperature is 45 degrees. The average high temperature at this point in time is around 23 degrees.

Light rain and drizzle predominated into the afternoon before drier air and clearing skies began working into the region. To date, New York City has received 38.35" precipitation this year. Based on 1971-2019 climatology, New York City will very likely see annual precipitation finish somewhere between 42.50" and 47.50", making 2020 the driest year since 2017 when 45.04" was recorded or perhaps 2016 when total precipitation was 42.17". Farther south in the Middle Atlantic region, both Baltimore and Washington, D.C. are nearing 50.00" total precipitation. Already, 2020 has become Baltimore's 26th wettest year on record and Washington's 21st wettest year on record. The weekend will commence with fair but cool weather. A strong cold front will move across the region, bringing a period of briefly heavy rain and perhaps some thunder on Sunday. Much cooler air will then move into the region early next week. That strong cold shot could usher in a period of below normal temperatures. The duration of a colder than normal period remains uncertain. Temperatures may rebound toward the end of November. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +11.26. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.017. On November 12 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.297 (RMM). The November 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.358. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy and cool. Some areas could see some periods of light rain and drizzle. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 57° A strong cold shot is likely early next week.

The historic November warm stretch has now ended. Through mid-month, the temperature will average near to somewhat above normal across the region. Afterward, the probability of a fairly sharp cold shot has continued to increase. That cold shot could usher in a period of below normal temperatures. The development and duration of such a period remain uncertain. Temperatures may rebound toward the end of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +6.74. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.590. On November 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.356 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.260. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

The final high temperature at Svalbard Lufthavn was 49 degrees. https://twitter.com/Ketil_Isaksen/status/1326768433577537536?s=20

Morning thoughts... A cold front moved across New York City and Newark during the past hour. From 7 am to 8 am, the temperature fell from 66° to 58° at New York City and from 67° to 62° at Newark. Clouds extended back to Ohio. Today will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon. The daily high temperatures have already occurred. Likely afternoon high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 62° A strong cold shot is likely early next week.

At 11 pm, the temperature in Central Park was 67 degrees. So far, the daily low temperature is 64 degrees. If that holds, that would surpass the 60 degree figure from 2002 to set a new daily record high minimum temperature for November 11. Meanwhile in the high Arctic region, the temperature at Svalbard Lufthavn, Norway reached 48 degrees during the pre-dawn hours on November 12. The METAR figures are below: ENSB 120150Z VRB09G26KT 9999 FEW032 BKN088 09/03 Q0998 RMK WIND 1400FT 20030G43KT

I do remember it. I wish I could forget what came after December.

That was a typo. I meant October 24-30, 1989. Late November 1989 was very cold.

Typo. October 24-30, 1989.

The historic November warm period is now coming to an end. Ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures again rose to unseasonable levels. High temperatures included: Bangor: 68° (old record: 65°, 2002) Boston: 73° (old record: 69°, 1966 and 2002) Caribou: 67° (old record: 66°, 2002) Chibougamau, Quebec: 62° (old record: 48°, 1940) Concord: 73° (old record: 70°, 2002) Fredericton, New Brunswick: 66° (old record: 64°, 2002) Hartford: 71° (old record: 69°, 1977) Islip: 68° (old record: 66°, 1970) Manchester, NH: 74° (old record: 70°, 2002) Montreal: 67° (old record: 65°, 2002) New York City: 72° ***November Record 6th Consecutive 70° Day*** Newark: 73° ***November Record 7th Consecutive 70° Day*** Ottawa: 66° (old record: 62°, 1995 and 2002) Philadelphia: 71° Portland: 69° (old record: 65°, 2002) Providence: 74° (old record: 68°, 1966) Quebec City: 65° (old record: 60°, 1966) Worcester: 68° (old record: 66°, 1935) In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The probability of a fairly sharp cold shot just after mid-month has increased in recent days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +6.31. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.096. On November 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.255 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.015. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

New paper: Hurricanes are now weakening more slowly over land due to climate change. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2867-7.epdf

At 12 pm, temperatures around the region included: Bridgeport: 65° Islip: 67° New York City: 72° Newark: 72° Poughkeepsie: 70° White Plains: 66° New York City (Central Park) has now set a new record of 6 consecutive November days on which the temperature reached 70° or above. The old record was 5 days, which was set during November 3-7, 2015. Newark extended its November record of 70° or above readings to 7 consecutive days. Prior to 2020, the latest-season stretch of 7 or more 70° days occurred during October 24-30, 1989.

The high was 69 at JFK.

Morning thoughts... At 7:50 am, a cold front stretched from the Florida Panhandle to southern Quebec. Areas of moderate to heavy rain were associated with that front. That front will move eastward bringing periods of rain to the region, especially this afternoon and tonight. An area that includes Philadelphia, Newark and New York City will likely pick up 1.00”-2.00” rain. South and east of there, from Washington, DC to southern New Jersey, 1.50”-3.00” rain with locally higher amounts is likely. North and west of Philadelphia to New York City, lesser amounts of rain are likely. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 60s and lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 73° Tomorrow will turn cooler.

Today featured plentiful sunshine with record-breaking warmth. Caribou hit 75°, which smashed the November record just established yesterday by 6°. That was the latest 70° temperature on record there. The previous mark was October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°. The previous latest 75° temperature was October 28, 1947. Central Park also reached 70° or above for a November record-tying fifth consecutive day and Newark extended its record to six consecutive days. High temperatures included: Allentown: 75° (old record: 70°, 1931 and 2002) Baltimore: 78° (old record: 75°, 1995) Bangor: 72° (old record: 68°, 1931) Binghamton: 71° (old record: 65°, 1975) Boston: 75° Bridgeport: 70° (old record: 69°, 1977) Buffalo: 77° (old record: 69°, 1975) Burlington: 72° Caribou: 75° (old record: 63°, 1948) ***New November Record*** Chibougamau, Quebec: 60° (old record: 53°, 1966) Chicago: 75° (old record: 71°, 1949) Cleveland: 76° (old record: 71°, 1998) Concord: 76° (old record: 73°, 1931) Detroit: 77° (old record: 68°, 1999) Fredericton, New Brunswick: 74° (old record: 65°, 1931) ***New November Record*** Harrisburg: 76° (old record: 73°, 1888) Hartford: 77° (old record: 76°, 1931) Milwaukee: 74° (old record: 66°, 2016) Montreal: 72° (old record: 65°, 1948 and 1966) ***New November Record*** New York City-LGA: 75° (tied record set in 1999) New York City-NYC: 74° (old record: 73°, 1985) Newark: 76° (old record: 73°, 1966, 1985 and 1999) Ottawa: 74° (old record: 66°, 1948) Philadelphia: 76° (old record: 73°, 1999) Pittsburgh: 76° (old record: 73°, 1939) Poughkeepsie: 76° Providence: 74° (old record: 73°, 1999) Quebec City: 69° (old record: 63°, 1948) Rochester: 78° (old record: 72°, 1939, 1949 and 1975) Rockford, IL: 74° (old record: 70°, 2010) Scranton: 76° (old record: 73°, 1948) Syracuse: 78° (old record: 74°, 1931) Toledo: 80° (old record: 68°, 1949 and 1999) ***Tied November Record*** Toronto: 75° (old record: 64°, 1975) Washington, DC: 76° (tied record set in 1999) White Plains: 72° (old record: 70°, 1985 and 1999) The region could experience a moderate to significant rainfall during tomorrow into Thursday as some moisture from Eta could be drawn northward along a slowly advancing cold front. In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The second half of November is likely to wind up warmer than normal, even as it could start with near normal to below normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +3.62. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.717. On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.004 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.989. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

At 11 am, the temperature at Caribou, ME was 71°. That surpassed the monthly record of 69°, which was set just yesterday. This is Caribou's latest 70° or above temperature on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and still warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 74° Later this week, cooler but not unseasonably cold air could arrive. As some moisture from the slow-moving Eta gets drawn northward along an approaching frontal system , the region could experience a moderate to significant rainfall later Wednesday through Thursday.