donsutherland1

The storm responsible for heavy snow in the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. The cold will then expand into the Central Plains for Monday and Tuesday. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions until the closing days of this month. A brief but fairly sharp shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. During the closing days of the the month, some of the cold air from out West will spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +9.22. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.021. On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.543 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.469. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

Unfortunately, a large chunk of the sea level rise is already baked in so to speak.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy, though some areas could see the clouds break for a time. It will be mild with highs mainly in the upper 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 73° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend, but a shot of much cooler air should arrive for Sunday. Meanwhile, a major early-season snowstorm will develop today in the Northern Rockies. Parts of that area could pick up a foot or more of snow. Frigid air will follow in the storm’s wake.

Tomorrow will be mild in the East, even as a major early-season snowstorm develops in the Northern Rockies and heads for the Northern Plains. That storm will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through much of the remainder of this month. A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. Toward the end of the month, some of the cooler air from out West could begin to spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +9.47. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.239. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.466 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.312. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°.

A great quote from Jeremy Symons, former vice president for political affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, concerning why climate change is now one of the leading topics of tonight’s Presidential debate: “It’s leaped out of the science books and into the communities where people have to deal with the deadly consequences of pretending it doesn’t exist.”

That’s a great set of books.

Many La Niña winters have a lot of warmth, so a warm winter is certainly on the table.

Hopefully, that won’t be the case. But things are looking worse than they were a few weeks ago.

Morning thoughts... Clouds, fog and mist will give way to partial sunshine in much of the region. It will be unseasonably warm with readings in the 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 79° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

Clouds broke during the afternoon and unseasonably mild conditions prevailed. Tomorrow, clouds, mist, and fog will give way to sunshine and somewhat warmer conditions. Widespread readings in the lower 70s in much of the region are likely. Temperatures in such cities as Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC could rise into middle and upper 70s. Toward the end of the week, a major early-season snowstorm will usher a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through much of the remainder of this month. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend. Toward the end of the month, cooler air could begin to spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +3.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.305. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.313 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.389. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°.

A lot will depend on how the pattern ultimately evolves. The odds of an EPO+/AO+ pattern have increased.

Yes, both have national security implications.

Morning thoughts... Clouds, fog and mist will give way to at least partial sunshine. It will be another mild day with readings mainly near or just above 70° in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 75° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

For the most part, average or above. However, in the cases with the larger amounts, the East wound up with below normal snowfall. The sample size is too small to draw conclusions about the East, especially when one considers ENSO.

In 7 of the prior 10 cases when 2” or more snow fell on any day in October, Minneapolis wound up with normal or above normal snowfall. Only two cases were decidedly below normal.

This morning, the temperature fell to 10° at International Falls, which broke the previous daily record low figure of 12° from 1952. Toward the end of the week, another near-record to record cold air mass will likely be overspreading the Northern Plains. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the region through much of the remainder of this month. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend. Toward the end of the month, cooler air could begin to spill into the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -1.48. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.739. On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.391 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.407. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°.

On October 19, Arctic sea ice extent reached 5 million square kilometers for the first time this season. That is the latest on record.

Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly cloudy, but mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 75° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

Warmer conditions returned today. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -6.71. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.163. On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.400 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.592. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°. Finally, Arctic sea ice extent remained just below 5 million square kilometers on October 18 (JAXA), which further extended 2020's record for the latest such occurrence of Arctic sea ice extent below 5 million square kilometers.

This response is not surprising. What’s missing is a letter or other document showing that this was supposed to be a foreign policy debate. If one wonders why no such documentation was furnished, it’s because of this as per the ground rules agreed by the Commission on Presidential Debates: All debates will be moderated by a single individual. As always, the moderators alone will select the questions, which are not known to the CPD or to the candidates. The CPD will choose the moderators, who will be announced in early September. The first and third presidential debates will be divided into six 15-minute segments. The topics for the six segments will be selected and announced by each moderator at least one week before each debate. This is the same format as was used 2012 and 2016. https://www.debates.org/2020/06/23/statement-second-presidential-debate/ Foreign policy will very likely fall under national security. However, politically inconvenient as they might be for some, COVID-19 and climate change are legitimate and important issues that should be discussed in detail.

Yes, this is correct. That's why the temperature will likely peak in the lower 70s this week rather than the upper 70s or even lower 80s.

There are a lot of clouds to the north and west of Philadelphia, most of New Jersey and NYC’s northern and western suburbs. Tomorrow will see more sunshine there.

Morning thoughts... Today will sunny and quite warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in many parts of the region. Some locations could reach 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 71° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

Warmer temperatures will return starting tomorrow. Temperatures will then likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -7.74. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.697. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.588 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.711. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7°. Finally, on October 17, Arctic sea ice extent remained below 5 million square kilometers (JAXA), further extending the record for the latest such figure.

Morning thoughts... A mostly sunny day with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s is in store. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 65° A stretch of warmer than normal temperatures will return starting tomorrow. One or more days during the work week could see much above normal readings.