donsutherland1

A cold front, which will likely see a storm develop along the frontal boundary, will bring the season's coldest air mass so far this season into the region later this week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the New York State border eastward into New England will likely see measurable snowfall Thursday night into Friday. A portion of this area, including Binghamton, has the potential to pick up 2"-4" of snow. A second and potentially larger storm could impact parts of the regon next week. In part, due to what will likely become a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation, the second half warmup will likely be gradual. Readings might not return to normal and then above normal until around November 20 +/- a few days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -6.81 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.889. On November 5, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.632 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.572. The 2.567 amplitude is the highest amplitude on record in November for the MJO's being in Phase 5. The previous record was 2.572, which was set yesterday. Prior to this year, it was 2.512 on November 24, 2002. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. The probability of such a warmup has increased according to some of the recent guidance. 80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 77% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

A cold front, which will likely see a storm develop along the frontal boundary, will bring the season's coldest air mass so far this season into the region later this week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the New York State border eastward into New England will likely see measurable snowfall Thursday night into Friday. A portion of this area, including Binghamton, has the potential to pick up 4" or more snow. A second and potentially larger storm could impact parts of the regon next week. In part, due to a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation, the second half warmup will likely be gradual. Readings might not return to normal and then above normal until around November 20 +/- a few days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -34.49 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below has occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.122. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On November 4, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.567 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.380. The 2.567 amplitude is the highest amplitude on record in November for the MJO's being in Phase 5. The previous record was 2.512 on November 24, 2002. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. Since 1869, New York City has had 30 cases where the November 1-15 mean temperature averaged from 42.5°-46.5°. Just 2/30 (7%) wound up with a mean temperature greater than 46.5° (1934: 48.9° and 1991: 48.3°). None of the 35 cases where the November 1-15 had a mean temperature below 46.0° (including first half mean temperatures below 42.5°), which appears likely in 2019, finished with a monthly mean temperature above 46.5°. In addition, 80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 75% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Tomorrow will feature above normal readings. However, an even colder air mass than the most recent one will likely arrive later this week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. Some of the guidance continues to suggest the potential for the season's first snow in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas Thursday night or Friday. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the New York State border eastward into New England has perhaps the greatest chance of seeing some accumulations. A portion of this area, including Binghamton, has the potential to pick up 4" or more snow. For New York City, 6/51 (12%) of the EPS ensembles show 1" or more snow. The following are percentages of EPS ensembles showing 1" or more snow at select locations: Allentown: 14%; Binghamton: 82%; Boston: 41%; Bridgeport: 22%; Harrisburg: 10%; Newark: 10%; Poughkeepsie: 39%; Scranton: 45%; and, White Plains: 16%. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above normal temperatures with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -34.36 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below has occurred three times in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.060. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On November 3, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.367 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.149. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, possibly beginning a few days after mid-month, the depth of the cold during the first half of the month has made it likely that November will finish with a colder than normal anomaly in the region. Since 1869, New York City has had 30 cases where the November 1-15 mean temperature averaged from 42.5°-46.5°. Just 2/30 (7%) wound up with a mean temperature greater than 46.5° (1934: 48.9° and 1991: 48.3°). None of the 35 cases where the November 1-15 had a mean temperature below 46.0° (including first half mean temperatures below 42.5°), which appears likely in 2019, finished with a monthly mean temperature above 46.5°.

A brief period of milder conditions will develop after tomorrow. However, an even colder air mass than the current one could arrive later in the week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. Some of the guidance continues to suggest the potential for the season's first snow in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas Thursday night or Friday. The area to the north and west of New York City and Newark, from northeastern Pennsylvania eastward into New England has perhaps the greatest chance of seeing some accumulations. A portion of this area has the potential to pick up 4" or more snow. For New York City, 14/51 (27%) of the EPS ensembles show 1" or more snow. The following are percentages of EPS ensembles showing 1" or more snow at select locations: Allentown: 33%; Binghamton: 78%; Boston: 49%; Bridgeport: 37%; Harrisburg: 22%; Newark: 20%; Poughkeepsie: 55%; Scranton: 63%; and, White Plains: 35%. All of these probabilities represent an increase from yesterday's 12z EPS. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above normal temperatures with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. Repeated runs of the GFS have been most insistent about a persistence of the cold. Should the Arctic Oscillation go as severely negative as forecast by some of the GFS ensemble members, the probability of such a scenario of a delayed return of warmer conditions could increase. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -10.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.101. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On November 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.139 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.839. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Based on the above data, the base case remains a warmer than normal November. However, any warm anomaly will be much smaller than the October one. The ultimate outcome will depend, in large part, on the cold anomaly for the first half of November.

Consistent with the 11 am observations that had been running near or above the MOS forecasts for 18z, today's high temperature exceeded the MOS guidance in Bridgeport, New York City, and Newark: Bridgeport: 56°; MOS Forecast high: 55° Islip: 54°; MOS Forecast high: 54° New York City: 54°; MOS Forecast high: 52° Newark: 55°; MOS Forecast high: 54°

At 11 am EST, temperatures were running near or even above the MOS forecast for 18z. Bridgeport: 52°; 18z Forecast: 53°; Forecast high: 55° Islip: 52°; 18z Forecast: 52°; Forecast high: 54° New York City: 50°; 18z Forecast: 51°; Forecast high: 52° Newark: 52°; 18z Forecast: 52°; Forecast high: 54° As a result, readings in parts of the region could top out somewhat above what the MOS guidance had suggested.

The lowest temperature in Central Park before November 1 was 28° on October 27, 1936.

The temperature fell to 40° in Central Park this morning. That was New York City' coldest temperature since April 11 when the temperature also reached 40°. Outside the City, widespread frost was reported. Numerous locations saw the temperature fall near or below freezing. Minimum temperatures included: Allentown: 31°; Binghamton: 33°; Boston: 39°; Bridgeport: 34°; Danbury: 28°; Harrisburg: 33°; Hartford: 32°; Islip: 33°; New Haven: 33°; Newark: 36°; Philadelphia: 36°; Poughkeepsie: 28°; Providence: 31°; Scranton: 32°; Westhampton: 25°; and, White Plains: 32°. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions early next week. However, an even colder air mass could arrive later next week. This air mass could be sufficiently cold to bring New York City its first freeze of the season. Some of the guidance suggests the potential for the season's first snow in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas Thursday night or Friday. The area to the north and west of New York City and Newark, from northeastern Pennsylvania eastward into New England has perhaps the greatest chance of seeing some accumulations. For New York City, 7/51 (14%) of the EPS ensembles show 1" or more snow. The following are percentages of EPS ensembles showing 1" or more snow at select locations: Allentown: 20%; Binghamton: 51%; Bridgeport: 20%; Harrisburg: 12%; Newark: 14%; Poughkeepsie: 31%; Scranton: 51%; and, White Plains: 14%. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above normal temperatures with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. The more likely scenario involves the large area of much above normal height anomalies covering the Gulf of Alaska shifting toward the Bering Strait and then into eastern Siberia over the next two weeks. The disappearance of the negative EPO will then set the stage for a milder regime to develop and establish itself over much of the CONUS. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -2.99 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.468. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On November 1, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.837 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.376. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude could reinforce this earlier MJO signal should it remain in that phase at high amplitude. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one.

Under partly sunny skies, temperatures topped out into the lower 50s this afternoon. Increasingly, the New York Botanical Garden is taking on an appearance of autumn. The trees are now changing fairly quickly.

Colder air now covers the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, this initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions within a few days. An even colder air mass could arrive during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty about the second half of the month. The possibility of a persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. The more likely scenario involves the large area of much above normal height anomalies covering the Gulf of Alaska shifting toward the Bering Strait and then into eastern Siberia over the next two weeks. The disappearance of the negative EPO will then set the stage for a milder regime to establish itself over much of the CONUS. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was +2.61 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.272. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 31, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.379 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.970. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one.

After a record warm October with a mean temperature of 83.5°, which would have ranked as the 10th warmest September on record, and a record warm September-October period with a mean temperature of 84.3°, Miami set a daily record high temperature of 91° to start November. The previous record of 89° was set in 1958.

As the observed warming of the global climate, including the continuing rapid warming in the Arctic region despite gradually declining solar insolation, proceeds, the degree of scientific ignorance being pushed on Social Media to deflect attention from athnropogenic climate change is expanding. One stunning example: https://twitter.com/EcoSenseNow/status/1190278220043579393 The hashtag, #CelebrateIgnorance would have been more appropriate. Let's take a look at the Eocene, which experienced the world's warmest temperatures since the extinction of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago. We show that sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from ∼18 °C to over 23 °C during this event. Such warm values imply the absence of ice and thus exclude the influence of ice-albedo feedbacks on this Arctic warming. At the same time, sea level rose while anoxic and euxinic conditions developed in the ocean's bottom waters and photic zone, respectively. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04668 We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1600891.short Associated with the rapid carbon release during this event are profound environmental changes in the oceans including warming, deoxygenation and acidification. To evaluate the global extent of surface ocean acidification during the PETM, we present a compilation of new and published surface ocean carbonate chemistry and pH reconstructions from various palaeoceanographic settings. We use boron to calcium ratios (B/Ca) and boron isotopes (δ11B) in surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct ocean carbonate chemistry and pH. Our records exhibit a B/Ca reduction of 30–40% and a δ11B decline of 1.0–1.2‰ coeval with the carbon isotope excursion. The tight coupling between boron proxies and carbon isotope records is consistent with the interpretation that oceanic absorption of the carbon released at the onset of the PETM resulted in widespread surface ocean acidification. The remarkable similarity among records from different ocean regions suggests that the degree of ocean carbonate change was globally near uniform. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2017.0072 How does the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gas emissions compare to that period? Research has found that "current carbon emission rates are nine to 10 times higher than those during the PETM." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190220112221.htm Further, climate sensitivity could increase with the warming on account of feedbacks such as those concerning cloud processes. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874/tab-pdf In the end, the growing extremes to which climate change deniers are now going to try to defend an indefensible case and evade their near total absence of scientific support demonstrates that the charlatans involved--in this case in tweeting, retweeting, or otherwise disseminating what amounts to quackery--should be ignored on any matters pertaining to science. Science is evidence-based. It is not an article of blind faith. Most definitely, it is not blind faith spiced by a combination of profound ignorance and a willingness to mislead. The body of scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change is clear and overwhelming. Residual uncertainties exist, but the basic conclusion concerning the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is now near unequivocal.

For White Plains: 11/8 22°, 1960 11/9 20°, 1971

Harrisburg has picked up 1.87" rain between 8 pm and 9 pm from heavy thunderstorms. That hourly rainfall beat the old daily record for October 31 of 1.33", which was set in 1939. Through 9:15 pm, Harrisburg had picked up 2.54" rain.

Today Chicago picked up 3.4" snow. That was Chicago's second largest daily snowfall on record for October. The record is 3.8", from October 19, 1989. With 4.6" snow this month, October 2019 ranks as Chicago's second snowiest October on record. The record monthly snowfall total is 6.3", in October 1989.

A strong cold front was approaching the region. Its arrival could be marked by a strong squall line. This initial push of cooler air will likely yield to milder conditions after a few days. An even stronger push of cold air could occur during the second week of November. After mid-month, a prolonged period of above with some possibly much above normal temperatures could develop. Nevertheless, there remains considerable uncertainty about the second half of the month. The persistence of cold air from the first half of the month will need to be watched closely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.43°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. Since 1981, approximately one out of every seven December cases involved a neutral ENSO. In general, a neutral ENSO in which Region 1+2 had a cold anomaly and Region 3.4 had a warm anomaly (as has been the case in the 6 week moving average) saw a warmer than normal December. Such neutral ENSO cases accounted for about 27% of all neutral ENSO December cases during the 1981-2018 period. This data does not consider blocking, as it is too soon to be confident about that factor in December. However, the greatest warmth coincided with a negative PDO while the coldest outcome coincided with a strongly positive PDO (+1.00 or above for December). Therefore, the first part of winter could start off milder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The SOI was -2.26 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.442. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. There remains a potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. Based on the September-October data and the guidance for November, Fall 2019 is on track for a mean temperature near 59.0° in New York City. On October 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.965 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.955. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. The October 16-31 period had a mean temperature that was 3.3° above normal. October 2019 finished with a mean temperature of 59.9° (3.0° above normal), which was slightly higher than what had been implied by the MJO. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one. The initial sensitivity analysis suggests that New York City has an implied 40% probability of having a warmer than normal November.

Some photos from the Long Island Sound late this afternoon. The temperature was 69°, but there was a strong southeast wind.

The sun is breaking down through the clouds in Mamaroneck, NY.

The cold front that will move through our region has pushed through Atlanta. Over the past hour, the temperature there has fallen from 76 to 58.

For those tracking the heat in Florida, today’s 91 degree temperature in Jacksonville is that city’s latest 90 degree temperature on record. The prior record was October 27, 2010 when the temperature reached 90.

Yes. That’s why it is quite clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is playing the larger role today. And that forcing will continue to increase in coming years/decades.

UHI has made a contribution. The sun, though, should have a small net negative contribution in recent years given the slight decrease in solar irradiance. New York City is also affected by the increase in sea surface temperature anomalies, as well. But rising greenhouse gas forcing has also driven the observed warming trend (larger role more recently). Natural variability is occurring within the context of growing greenhouse gas forcing. No disagreement on the role politics has played in skewing perceptions.

With 0.13" precipitation through 11 am CDT, Chicago's total precipitation for 2019 has reached 45.94". That ranks 2019 as the 6th wettest year on record, just ahead of 1954 when 45.92" precipitation was measured.

Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), October has averaged 0.6 sigma above the 30-year moving average temperature and standard deviation in Miami. The 5 warmest Octobers on a standardized basis (30-year moving average) are: 1. 2019 +2.6 sigma 2. 2009 +2.2 sigma 3. 2002 +2.15 sigma 4. 1995 +2.0 sigma 5. 1969 +1.9 sigma No other Octobers were 1.8 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average. This data shows that since 2000, the extremely warm Octobers have become even more extreme even when the rising temperature trend is considered.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.7 0.1 -0.7 1.2 2.0 2.1 Snowfall (11/21): DCA: 10.0" NYC: 23.5" BOS: 36.0" ORD: 30.0" DTW: 35.0" BUF: 110.0" DEN: 83.0" BTV: 90.0" SEA: 6.5"