donsutherland1

I’m not talking about extremes, but extremes skewed severely in one direction.

If the weather is not getting more extreme, than few records should be set. But that’s not the case at all. Year-to-date, there have been 5,240 global heat records (record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures). There have been 997 global cold records (record low minimum and record low maximum records). If the climate were relatively stable, the two figures should be roughly equivalent. Instead, there have been 5.3 heat records for every cold record. Going to all-time temperature records, there have been 528 all-time heat records and 28 all-time cold records. In this case, the ratio is even more skewed toward heat: 18.9 heat records for every cold record. A warming climate produces such an outcome. A stable or cooling climate does not. Moreover, these records are not the result of a manipulation of data. The warming climate is supported by a continuing decline in summer Arctic sea ice extent (this year was the first case of two consecutive years with a minimum extent under 4 million square kilometers on JAXA) and both Greenland’s and Antarctica’s losing mass. None of this would be occurring if temperature data were artifacts of adjustment, not real measures of a warming climate. Finally, a 0.5 degrees C drop in global annual temperatures would very likely require a volcanic eruption quite a bit larger than the Krakatoa eruption of 1883.

Tomorrow will be another warm day with readings reaching the 70s in much of the region. An afternoon or evening shower or thundershower is possible as a cold front moves across the region. Strong winds gusting past 45 mph could precede the frontal passage. Behind the front, a brief shot of moderately cooler air will overspread the area. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +12.83. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.193. On October 5 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.193 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.954. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively.

I don’t believe it’s fair to dismiss peer-reviewed research as “BS,” much less to do so without credible contrary evidence.

There is credible evidence that climate change is triggering changes that promote more extreme weather. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242 Synoptic patterns are occurring within the context of increased greenhouse gas forcing. Added warmth has an impact e.g., for every 1 degree C rise in temperature, the atmosphere holds approximately 7% more water vapor. So, if everything else were held constant, and it isn’t, one would be dealing with heavier precipitation events. Attribution studies are linking extreme events to climate change, as would be expected based on the current scientific understanding. One very recent example is this year’s exceptional warmth in Siberia. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Prolonged-heat-Siberia-2020.pdf In terms of the wildfires, there is a large body of literature that links wildfire conditions to climate change. Increased heat, dryness, water vapor deficits all exacerbate risks of fire above what would otherwise be the case. https://news.sciencebrief.org/wildfires-sep2020-update/ Climate science has made a strong empirical case linking anthropogenic greenhouse gases to extreme weather. If the case were weak or worse, those who reject AGW and its link to extreme weather, would be publishing research showing otherwise. They are not. Empty dismissals—by empty, I mean without credible research to back those statements—are insufficient basis to contest the large and growing body of research linking climate change to extreme weather and related events.

It should be noted that the download site only goes through 2019. The NCEP site doesn’t include EPO and WPO forecasts. One can still get them through various vendors for the EPS, GEFS, etc. Actual observed values are no longer available as far as I know.

Morning thoughts... Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures will generally reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 71° A cool front will bring a brief period of cooler temperatures to the region later this week before temperatures rebound to above normal levels.

From Bloomberg.com: Exxon Mobil Corp. has been planning to increase annual carbon-dioxide emissions by as much as the output of the entire nation of Greece, an analysis of internal documents reviewed by Bloomberg shows, setting one of the largest corporate emitters against international efforts to slow the pace of warming. The drive to expand both fossil-fuel production and planet-warming pollution comes at a time when some of Exxon’s rivals, such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, are moving to curb oil and zero-out emissions. Exxon’s own assessment of its $210 billion investment strategy shows yearly emissions rising 17% by 2025, according to the internal documents. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-05/exxon-carbon-emissions-and-climate-leaked-plans-reveal-rising-co2-output This is what happens when mega-polluters such as Exxon Mobil receive subsidies to underwrite the exploration for fossil fuels, are held immune to the costs of their pollution, and have taxpayers pay for the costs of their pollution. Incentives are skewed, pollution is maximized, and with pollution, societal harm is maximized.

I was mistaken. Free ECMWF access begins October 7, not October 5.

FYI, daily EPO and WPO values will no longer be available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.daily

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia all reached 70°. Tomorrow will be sunny and mild with readings again reaching or perhaps 70°. Across the Atlantic Ocean, numerous daily record highs were surpassed in Europe. A few monthly record highs were exceeded, as well. Such large outbreaks of record-breaking heat have skewed daily, monthly, and all-time records ratios in favor of the warmth. Global records data for 2020 (January 1 through October 3) are below: Daily Records: Highs: 41,428; Lows: 15,511; Ratio (H:L): 2.7 Monthly Records: Highs: 2,509; Lows: 475; Ratio (H:L): 5.3 All-Time Records: Highs: 171; Lows: 16; Ratio (H:L): 10.7 Milder conditions will prevail just past midweek until a cold front brings a brief shot of unseasonably cool air into the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.05. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.193. On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.060 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.953. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively.

From Politico: The August Complex of wildfires surpassed the grim milestone Monday of over 1 million acres burned, the first blaze in recorded California history to reach seven figures of acreage. The update by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection on the August Complex in the north coastal range of mountains came just after the agency announced Sunday that the state has seen over 4 million acres burned so far this year. That's more than the double the total destruction of 1.9 million acres burned in all of 2018, the previous record year. https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/10/05/california-has-first-million-acre-megafire-as-devastating-season-sets-new-records-1321356

In the wake of yesterday’s 60 Minutes documentary linking climate change to recent extreme weather and wildfires, all of which is supported by the literature, climate change deniers are angered that they are no longer gaining media platforms to promote their discredited beliefs and sap the public of understanding both the magnitude and urgency of the climate change issue. One complained over Twitter, “Love the way 60 Minutes refuses to show any challenges to the AGW dogma, or even the other side of the issue.” First, the overwhelming body of scientific literature, not to mention the laws of physics concerning the properties of CO2, support AGW. At least when it comes to science, the debate about the primary cause of the observed ongoing warming is over. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that driven an increase in the atmospheric concentration of such gases. In turn, those gases had driven a sustained energy imbalance that has led to an increase in oceanic heat and rising temperatures, with adverse effects ranging from increasingly severe heat events to extreme wildfires. Those who reject AGW cannot provide a credible alternative backed by peer-reviewed scientific research. They have no unifying theory, no new forcing, no rational explanation. They have nothing. That’s why the debate is over and the focus is shifting to areas of uncertainty, feedbacks, etc. At the same time, that’s why public pressure, especially among the younger generations who bear much greater exposure to the increasing consequences of climate change, are leading a movement for big policy changes. Second, if the debate concerning the cause of climate change is over and no credible scientific case can be made for the “other side of the issue,” that side does not exist as far as science is concerned. It only exists in terms of rhetoric, pseudo-science and politics. Therefore, as the 60 Minutes program was focused on science, it could only draw upon the knowledge that has been borne out through decades of empirical research. There is no point in promoting rhetorical or political beliefs that lack scientific foundation in a documentary concerning science. Doing so would be little different than granting an audience to the handful who reject gravity, embrace a belief that the world is flat, and/or dismiss Evolution. That would not be science. That would be confusing noise. Such noise would only further delay the kind of policy and technology changes that are needed to begin to address the challenge of climate change.

Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely continue through midweek. Rainfall will likely remain below normal.

Here’s the latest: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

CBS’ 60 Minutes had a feature story on California’s wildfires. Climate change was covered quite a bit. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/western-wilfires-record-temperatures-california-60-minutes-2020-10-04/ This is exactly the kind of journalism that is needed. The public needs to learn the “why” behind the nation’s increasing disasters.

Under another day filled with sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 60s across the region. Tomorrow will see early morning patchy clouds give way to partly sunny skies. Readings will again rise into the middle and upper 60s. A few places could reach 70°. Milder conditions will prevail just past midweek until a cold front brings a brief shot of unseasonably cool air into the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +6.83. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464. On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.327. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively.

Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly sunny and pleasant conditions. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 68° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely develop and continue through midweek. Rainfall will likely remain below normal.

Ocean temperatures have now been above the 20th century average for 532 consecutive months: On GISS, the last year with a cool global anomaly was 1976 and the last month with a cool global anomaly was September 1992.

Today was a golden autumn day filled with sunshine and pleasant readings in the middle and upper 60s. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Meanwhile, Phoenix registered its 3rd 105° or above temperature of October. That broke the monthly record of 2 days, which was set in 1980. As a result, 5 of the 11 (45%) cases have occurred in 2000 or later. Records go back to 1895. Overall, the opening week of October will see generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week ahead of a renewed push of cool air. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.44. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.967. On October 2 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.539. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle 60s. Five photos from a sun-swept New York Botanical Garden:

The implicit assumption of little or no increase in production of renewable energy to support the idea that California’s electric car mandate would be a disaster is almost certainly not the most likely outcome. Overall, California’s revised mid-range estimate for annual energy consumption growth over the next 10 years is 1.3% per year. Cost advantages currently exist for fossil fuel companies, but not all for market-based reasons. First, the federal government subsidizes oil and gas activities with roughly $10 billion per year in assistance, through tax expenditures that include energy production tax credits, energy investment tax credits, expensing of exploration/development costs, and even modest royalty payments to coal companies. Second, fossil fuel companies do not have to pay any of the cost associated with their carbon-related externalities. This leads to a significant underpricing for the companies, as society winds up bearing those costs through increased costs of disaster recovery, mitigation for rising seas, etc. Put another way, taxpayers wind up paying for the costs of pollution they did not cause. Until those factors are addressed, the reported production cost figures come with a huge asterisk. The numbers are skewed, because part of the fossil fuel companies’ expenses are paid not by the companies, but by the taxpayers/society.

Morning thoughts... Today will feature brilliant sunshine. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s and perhaps upper 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 67° The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal overall.

This behavior fits the economic literature quite well. Status quo firms are often complacent. Others, pioneer new approaches and make incremental improvements. Over time, the new approaches are feasible and lower costs than status quo approaches and offer comparable or superior value. Once that happens, these new approaches become disruptive innovations and most of the firms that had committed to the status quo see their market position dramatically weakened. At that point, even if they can imitate the production of the disruptive technology, their cost curves are consistent with the earlier technology and the cannot compete effectively or profitably.

This is a disturbing development. It will likely amplify the changes being driven by AGW.