donsutherland1

Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta will likely impact the tomorrow night through Tuesday. The potential exists for a widespread 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +14.31. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.931. On October 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.713 (RMM). The October 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.513. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°.

Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature rose to 70° at Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, the chrysanthemum show was underway. Five photos: Finally, on this date in 1979, wet snow fell in many parts of the region, including New York City.

The scientific literature disagrees. Here is the abstract from one recent paper: Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57–70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16–30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive. https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and very warm for the season. Temperatures will rise into the middle and even upper 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 76° Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will impact the region from late tomorrow through Tuesday. The potential exists for a widespread 1"-3" rainfall with some locally higher amounts.

There is a lot of merit to that Planck quote. Fortunately, at least as far as climate science is concerned, the science has triumphed. No credible opposition to AGW remains. From the sidelines, there continues to be noisy objections—most of it from those who have no background in climate science and a vanquished few who proved unable to build a credible alternative scientific case—but the literature reflects the reality that AGW is the dominant cause of contemporary climate change. Uncertainties in various areas e.g., feedbacks, persist, but the overarching idea about the causation of contemporary climate change has been established. Where inroads remain to be made is on the policy front. At present large carbon emitters are permitted to dump their emissions into the climate system with impunity. Their products are underpriced, as the costs of their emissions are isolated from their cost structures and instead incurred by society. They also receive billions of dollars in subsidies that incentivize increases in such pollution. Thus, market function is actually impaired by these distortions and shifts toward cleaner energy are impeded. That will likely gradually begin to change. But once the Millennials and Generation Z, whose life exposure to climate change is far greater than that for preceding generations, gain political clout, much more rapid change is likely. Opinion surveys show that they do not view the fossil fuel industry as sufficiently sacrosanct that it must be held immune to the costs and consequences of its emissions. The worldview that seems to arise out of the polling is the idea that society isn’t built around industry, but that industry is part of society. With that comes responsibilities to society. That’s where the issue of externalities (carbon pollution in this case) arises. Under the former mindset, it’s accepted (and acceptable by industry advocates) that the costs of externalities be borne by society. In the latter, all costs, including those associated with externalities, should be borne by those responsible. In a way, even as the language appears absent from what I have read about the rising younger generations, this amounts to a rediscovery of the old idea of individual responsibility.

Today was a mild October day with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be even warmer with highs topping out in the middle 70s in many parts of the region. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta, which made landfall near Creole, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph early this evening, will likely impact the region Sunday night through Tuesday. The potential exists for a moderate to significant rainfall in parts of the region. There remains uncertainty about rainfall amounts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +19.53. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.600. On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.510 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.295. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

One plausible explanation is status quo bias. Bias for the status quo, with which people are familiar, can impede rational judgment about choices. In status quo bias, perceptions of risk are disconnected from objective factors and are skewed in favor of the present state of affairs. Change from the status quo is seen as inherently risky. Thus, when it comes to cost-benefit analysis, the benefits of the present are overstated while the costs of some new state are exaggerated. Therefore, even when the status quo is unsustainable and costly—as is the case with fossil fuels and the impact of resulting greenhouse gas emissions—and an alternative state offers more long-term benefits (reduction of the discounted future costs of climate change), the status quo is embraced. This bias impairs judgment, nourishes motivated reasoning (which reinforces preferences for the status quo), and contributes to the common phenomenon where companies and societies often fail to make necessary changes until a crisis has erupted.

As with other technologies as they advanced, one will likely see efficiency gains with renewables. That will lead to more output relative to the size of solar and wind farms, meaning fewer or smaller solar and wind farms would be necessary for a given level of output. There is also nuclear power. Finally, even as it is invisible, the dumping of greenhouse gas emissions into the climate system is having a growing adverse impact. The changing climate poses major risks to nature, including wildlife e.g., reduced biodiversity. Some recent papers: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/685 https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaaq1819.short If one truly cherishes nature and wildlife, why would one advocate a continuation of the very practices that pose perhaps the greatest long-term threat to nature and wildlife?

Morning thoughts... At 7 am, temperatures included: Allentown: 40°; Islip: 48°; New York City: 53°; Newark: 50°; Philadelphia: 50°; Poughkeepsie: 37°; Westhampton: 36°; and, White Plains: 48°. After a cool start, a warmer afternoon is in store. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will likely impact the region from late Sunday through Tuesday.

Despite bright sunshine, the temperature rose only into the lower and middle 60s across the region. After a cool night, a warmup will commence. Readings will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow. Afterward, generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta, which will likely make landfall as a Category 2 or perhaps Category 3 hurricane along the Louisiana coast on Friday, will likely impact the region Sunday night through Tuesday. The potential exists for a moderate to possibly significant rainfall in parts of the region. There remains considerable uncertainty. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +13.92. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.024. On October 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.285 (RMM). The October 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.215. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

The latest EPS weeklies and the subseasonal guidance favor cooler conditions during the last week or so in October. Whether they continue beyond that, should they develop, remains uncertain.

Heat and drought have been feeding off one another. Such situations are expected to become increasingly common as the climate continues to warm. Through yesterday, Las Vegas had seen no measurable rainfall for 170 consecutive days (the old record was 150 days).

No one is ducking anything. I recognize that renewable energy is still evolving and that their are some issues. @skierinvermont provided some concrete data. Exaggerated claims don’t accurately reflect the situation. Ignoring the CO2 emissions of fossil fuels skews the picture, as the true costs and hazards are set aside to sustain an inaccurate picture of costs, trade-offs, etc.

Numerous scientists do not view wood-burning as green energy. I believe their case is strong. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9HP_Rf4_eHtQUpyLVIzZE8zQWc/view

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny, breezy and much cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 67° Milder conditions will quickly return toward the weekend. Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta could impact the region from late Sunday through Tuesday. Details remain to be resolved.

All of the hyperbolic claims about environmental degradation caused by renewable energy technologies, which are continuing to improve, pales in comparison to the colossal environmental degradation caused by dumping carbon into the atmosphere. If one were to attach a cost to the carbon pollution, ExxonMobil alone would be responsible for more roughly $9.5 billion in annual carbon pollution (124 million metric tons x $70 per ton). The emissions are from Statista for 2018. The cost is the midpoint between estimates made by Nordhaus ($40 per ton) and Stern (just over $100 per ton). That’s just one giant polluter. Worse, it is a free rider that does not have to bear the costs of its pollution. Society currently bears those costs resulting in an artificial suppression of the cost of oil, resulting in greater quantity demanded than would otherwise be the case (translating into more pollution than would otherwise be the case). Moreover, it ignores pollution related to production, accidents, etc. It also does not consider opportunity costs. The opportunity costs of delaying the shift to clean energy are very high (even if all uncertainties about the consequences of climate change are assumed to be relatively benign, which hasn’t been the experience so far as uncertainties begin to be resolved).

IMO, there needs to be a price placed on carbon. The polluters should bear the costs of their emissions, not society.

I did. That's why significant obstacles lie ahead of efforts to address climate change.

Phoenix Experiences its Hottest Week in October: Following its hottest summer on record, Phoenix experienced its warmest first week of October and warmest seven-day period in October with a mean temperature of 89.0°. The previous seven-day record in October was 88.8°, during October 5-11, 1991. October 1-7, 2020 Summary: Average high temperature: 105.0° (old record: 103.7°, 1980) Average low temperature: 73.0° (13th highest) Average temperature: 89.0° (old record: 88.7°, 1991) The average high temperature of 105.0° would rank as the 33rd highest summer average. During the first week of October, Phoenix registered 5 temperatures of 105° or above: October 1: 107° (tied October record high) October 2: 106° October 3: 105° October 4: 105° October 5: 105° That number surpassed the previous monthly record of 2, which was set in 1980. Since 1895, Phoenix has had 12 days in October when the temperature reached 105° or above in October. 6 (50%) have occurred since 2000, 5 (42%), of which have occurred 2010 or later. There remains large year-to-year variability during the first week in October with very warm Septembers and/or very wrm last weeks of September often followed by unseasonable warmth during the first week in October. During the 1895-2019 period, in cases when September had a mean temperature of 87.0° or above, October 1-7 had a mean temperature of 82.0° with 71% of cases seeing a mean temperature of 80° or above during the first week of October. In cases when the September 24-30 mean temperature was 84.0° or above, October 1-7 had a mean temperature of 82.2° with 70% of cases having a mean temperature of 80° or above during the first week of October. In cases where September had a mean temperature of 87.0° or above and the last week of September had a mean temperature of 84.0° or above, the mean temperature during October 1-7 was 82.9° and 81% of cases saw mean temperature of 80° or above during the first week of October. Overall, the first week of October has seen an increase in temperatures. High temperatures have increased modestly since the 30-year periods ending as recently as 1970. Low temperatures have increased notably since the 30-year period ending in 1970. There has been a modest increase in the average number of days on which the temperature reaches 100° or above. Table 1: Select October 1-7 Data (30-Year Moving Average) Table 2: Record High Maximum Temperatures

In the wake of a frontal passage, clouds will give way to clearing skies. It will remain breezy overnight. Tomorrow will be sunny and noticeably cooler with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +13.99. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.479. On October 6 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.200 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.196. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

They simply don’t care. They are little better than those who have rationalized atrocities under the claim that the end justifies the means. In this case, the harm they inflict (and society pays for) is justified by their carbon-based profits.

I did. The outcomes bore out what they had projected would happen.

The ECMWF charts are now available: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/?facets=Type,Forecasts Warning: The DJF seasonal forecast may be hazardous to one’s preferences.

It does show up on some of the EPS ensemble members, though few show a significant amount.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and increasingly windy ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will likely gust past 45 mph this afternoon and evening. In addition, there could be some widely scattered showers or even thundershowers this afternoon and early tonight. Temperatures will rise into the middle 70s and perhaps upper 70s in some areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 77° Milder conditions will quickly return toward the weekend.