donsutherland1

One photo and a short video clip from this afternoon:

FYI, Phoenix tied its record high minimum temperature with a low of 61 degrees yesterday. The record was set in 2006.

No. Every place that I saw fell just short of 70.

Morning thoughts... At 8:35, rain and snow was falling in northern Pennsylvania along a warm front associated with a storm that will be tracking north and west of the region. Rain was falling in part of the Ohio Valley and light snow was falling in Detroit. Today will be another mostly cloudy. Showers will become increasingly likely during the afternoon and evening. Steadier rain will likely arrive tonight. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 58° A brief shot of cooler air is likely Tuesday into Wednesday.

Phoenix Experiences Latest 90° Days on Record Often a great earthquake is followed by strong aftershocks that reverberate in the days and weeks that follow it. 2020 has witnessed a similar phenomenon in Phoenix following what was, by far its hottest summer on record. In this case, waves of unseasonable heat have recurred periodically deep into the autumn. Summer 2020 had a mean temperature of 96.7°, which obliterated the previous mark of 95.1° set in 2013 and tied in 2015. Summer 2020 also saw July become Phoenix's hottest month on record and then August eclipse that record. The extreme heat of summer carried over into early September when the temperature topped out at 115°on September 5 and September 4-6 saw readings of 113° or above on each day. Cooler weather returned, but Phoenix has witnessed five distinct heat episodes since then, the most recent of which produced that city's latest 90° temperatures on record: 1. Mid-September: Peak temperature: 109°, September 16-17 2. Early October: Peak temperature: 107°, October 1 (tied monthly record). October 1-5: 105° or above on each day. October 1-7: Hottest week on record in October. 3. Mid-October: Peak temperature: 102°, October 16. That brought Phoenix's total 100° days to 145, surpassing the record of 143 such days set in 1989. 4. Early November: Peak temperature 99°, November 5. That smashed the November record of 96°, which was most recently tied on November 1, 2020. November 1-5 was the warmest 5-day period on record in November. 5. Mid-November: Peak temperature: 92°, November 16-17. The previous latest 90° temperature on record occurred on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. In addition to surpassing the record for the latest 90° temperatures on record, November 2020 tied the monthly record of 7 such days. That record was set in 1999. Table 1: 90° Days during November 2020: Table 2: November Temperature Thresholds: Table 3: Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Table 4: Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

With sunshine that persisted into the afternoon, temperatures rose well into the 60s in much of the region. Tomorrow will be cooler under mainly cloudy skies. Showers are likely. A steadier rain could develop later in the day or at night. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. One such cool shot is likely early next week. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +2.86. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.262. On November 20 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.401 (RMM). The November 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.581. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2°. The implied probability for a November mean temperature of 50.0° in Central Park is now approximately 81%. Since 1869, there have been 19 cases where November had a mean temperature of 50.0° or above. 14/19 (74%) went on to have a warmer than normal December, including 9/19 (47%) with a December mean temperature of 40.0° or above (2.5° or more above normal). The winter mean temperature for those 14 cases was 37.5° (2.2° above normal). The winter mean temperature for the subset of December cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above was 38.9° (3.6° above normal) and four of those cases wound up having an average winter temperature of 40.0° or above.

I share Bluewave’s sentiments. Much would need to change to produce a cold, especially snowy outcome.

Under sunshine that last into the early afternoon, the temperature soared to 64° at Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, most of the leaves are now down. Three photos from this afternoon:

Temperatures are running well above the guidance. Central Park will likely reach the middle 60s and Newark will be in the upper 60s to near 70.

Morning thoughts... Today will be another mostly sunny and mild day. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 64° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler and there could showers.

In a day filled with sunshine, the temperature soared into the 60s across much of the region today. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. One such cool shot is likely early next week. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +16.86. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.144. On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.579 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.551. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.2°. The implied probability for a November mean temperature of 50.0° in Central Park is now near 80%. Since 1869, there have been 19 cases where November had a mean temperature of 50.0° or above. 14/19 (74%) went on to have a warmer than normal December, including 9/19 (47%) with a December mean temperature of 40.0° or above (2.5° or more above normal). The winter mean temperature for those 14 cases was 37.5° (2.2° above normal). The winter mean temperature for the subset of December cases with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above was 38.9° (3.6° above normal) and four of those cases wound up having an average winter temperature of 40.0° or above.

Morning thoughts... Yesterday, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 60s in the Great Lakes Region. Some of this warmer air will move into the region for today and tomorrow . As a result, today will be mostly sunny and much warmer than yesterday. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 62° The weekend will start on a mild note, but somewhat cooler air should arrive for Sunday.

Temperatures rebounded into the upper 40s after a cold start with most locations seeing low temperatures in the 20s and even teens. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. One such cool shot is likely early next week. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +20.17. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.882. On November 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.555 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.682. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

The cold was impressive. The high wasn’t far off the daily record low minimum temperature, but now the cold air is departing rapidly.

Morning thoughts... Overnight low temperatures included: Boston: 22°; Bridgeport: 25°; Danbury: 18°: Islip: 22°; New York City: 30°; Newark: 26°; Philadelphia: 30°; Poughkeepsie: 18°; Westhampton: 15°; and, White Plains: 22° After a very cold start, sunshine will send temperatures rebounding. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 49° The week should end with above normal temperatures.

With strong cold air advection, temperatures remained mainly in the 30s across the region today. High temperatures included: Boston: 35° Bridgeport: 36° Islip: 37° New York City: 36° Newark: 38° Philadelphia: 40° In the West, Phoenix set a record high temperature of 89° (old record: 88°, 2008) and Tucson reached a record 91° (old record: 86°, 1990 and 2019). Tomorrow will get off to a cold start, but readings should rebound to well into the 40s during the afternoon. Afterward, temperatures will continue to rapidly moderate. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +20.10. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.970. On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.682 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.564. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

It's difficult to know for sure. Anecdotally, one is seeing a retrenchment on publicly-available data e.g., the daily EPO/WPO values are no longer provided, that hints at resource constraints.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny, blustery and cold. The temperature will struggle to get out of the 30s in many parts of the region. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 30s and lower 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 42° After a cold start, tomorrow will see milder temperatures during the afternoon. The week should end with above normal temperatures.

Ahead of an advancing cold front, the temperature rose to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region. Temperatures began falling during the afternoon as colder air began filtering into the region. Tomorrow and Thursday will be unseasonably cold. The temperature will likely struggle to reach 40° in parts of the region tomorrow. In the West, high temperature records again fell. At Phoenix, the high temperature reached 92° (old record: 87°, 2008). This was also Phoenix's latest 90° temperature on record. In addition, today was Phoenix's 7th 90° or above temperature this month, which tied the November record set in 1999. Of those 7 days, November 1999 saw two days with temperatures of 92° or above. This year, all 7 days saw temperatures reach 92° or above. Tucson reached 92°, which broke the daily record of 87° from 1999. Last night, Hurricane Iota, which was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record for November, made landfall near Haulover, Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. That was about 15 miles south of where Hurricane Eta made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph earlier this month. Scientific evidence that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms has increased (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion). Temperatures will rapidly moderate beginning on Friday. Afterward, most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots. November could conclude with warmer than normal temperatures. December could open with above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas through Thursday, it will be exceptionally warm in parts of the southwestern United States. As a result, Phoenix could see additional near-record to record high temperatures through Thursday. Phoenix could also further extend its record for its latest 90° temperature on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +17.69. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.823. On November 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.451. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°. Note: 1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

It did. That was Central Park’s coldest October temperature since 1988.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny, breezy and cool. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 50° Tomorrow and Thursday will be unseasonably cold. Parts of the region will experience their lowest temperatures so far this season.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 50s across the region. Out west, Phoenix reached 92° today. That broke the daily record of 89°, which was set in 1999. It was also the latest 90° or above temperature on record for Phoenix. The previous record was 90°, which occurred on November 15, 2020. Records go back to 1895. Late tonight or early tomorrow morning Hurricane Iota will make landfall near the Honduras-Nicaragua border as either a strong Category 4 or even Category 5 hurricane. It is the only Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin during November. Tomorrow through Thursday will be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. Temperatures will return to mild levels afterward. November could conclude with warmer than normal temperatures. December could open with above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas through Thursday, it will be exceptionally warm in parts of the southwestern United States. As a result, Phoenix could see additional near-record to record high temperatures through Thursday. Phoenix could also further extend its record for its latest 90° temperature on record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +11.45. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.163. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.455 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.160. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.9°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be sunny with a gusty wind. Afternoon high temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold. Parts of the region will experience their lowest temperatures so far this season. Out west, Phoenix will experience near record to record warm temperatures. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record.

We’ll have 3 days of below to much below normal temperatures and the temperatures should rebound.

The coming cold shot. Things could still rise quite a bit if some of the warmer ideas to close the month verify.