donsutherland1

Here’s the latest: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

CBS’ 60 Minutes had a feature story on California’s wildfires. Climate change was covered quite a bit. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/western-wilfires-record-temperatures-california-60-minutes-2020-10-04/ This is exactly the kind of journalism that is needed. The public needs to learn the “why” behind the nation’s increasing disasters.

Under another day filled with sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 60s across the region. Tomorrow will see early morning patchy clouds give way to partly sunny skies. Readings will again rise into the middle and upper 60s. A few places could reach 70°. Milder conditions will prevail just past midweek until a cold front brings a brief shot of unseasonably cool air into the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +6.83. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464. On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.327. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively.

Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly sunny and pleasant conditions. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 68° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely develop and continue through midweek. Rainfall will likely remain below normal.

Ocean temperatures have now been above the 20th century average for 532 consecutive months: On GISS, the last year with a cool global anomaly was 1976 and the last month with a cool global anomaly was September 1992.

Today was a golden autumn day filled with sunshine and pleasant readings in the middle and upper 60s. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Meanwhile, Phoenix registered its 3rd 105° or above temperature of October. That broke the monthly record of 2 days, which was set in 1980. As a result, 5 of the 11 (45%) cases have occurred in 2000 or later. Records go back to 1895. Overall, the opening week of October will see generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week ahead of a renewed push of cool air. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.44. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.967. On October 2 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.539. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle 60s. Five photos from a sun-swept New York Botanical Garden:

The implicit assumption of little or no increase in production of renewable energy to support the idea that California’s electric car mandate would be a disaster is almost certainly not the most likely outcome. Overall, California’s revised mid-range estimate for annual energy consumption growth over the next 10 years is 1.3% per year. Cost advantages currently exist for fossil fuel companies, but not all for market-based reasons. First, the federal government subsidizes oil and gas activities with roughly $10 billion per year in assistance, through tax expenditures that include energy production tax credits, energy investment tax credits, expensing of exploration/development costs, and even modest royalty payments to coal companies. Second, fossil fuel companies do not have to pay any of the cost associated with their carbon-related externalities. This leads to a significant underpricing for the companies, as society winds up bearing those costs through increased costs of disaster recovery, mitigation for rising seas, etc. Put another way, taxpayers wind up paying for the costs of pollution they did not cause. Until those factors are addressed, the reported production cost figures come with a huge asterisk. The numbers are skewed, because part of the fossil fuel companies’ expenses are paid not by the companies, but by the taxpayers/society.

Morning thoughts... Today will feature brilliant sunshine. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s and perhaps upper 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 67° The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal overall.

This behavior fits the economic literature quite well. Status quo firms are often complacent. Others, pioneer new approaches and make incremental improvements. Over time, the new approaches are feasible and lower costs than status quo approaches and offer comparable or superior value. Once that happens, these new approaches become disruptive innovations and most of the firms that had committed to the status quo see their market position dramatically weakened. At that point, even if they can imitate the production of the disruptive technology, their cost curves are consistent with the earlier technology and the cannot compete effectively or profitably.

This is a disturbing development. It will likely amplify the changes being driven by AGW.

Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and cool. Highs will generally reach the middle 60s. Overall, the opening week of October will see generally cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week ahead of a renewed push of cool air. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. October could also be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +18.11. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.989. On October 1 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.534 (RMM). The September 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.498. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool.

Unfortunately, even if all greenhouse gas emissions ceased today, the world has committed to additional warming from the present atmospheric concentration of such gases. In terms of the Arctic, prior to 1990 (1851-1989), the NSIDC extended ice record indicated only 1952 had a minimum extent value below 7 million square kilometers. After 1990,, such figures became routine. Then, as Arctic warming accelerated, things deteriorated. 2009 was the last year during which the figure stayed at or above 5 million square kilometers. It is possible that the world has now reached the point where the minimum extent values will routinely fall below 4 million square kilometers. If not, it will very likely happen this decade. The 2012 minimum figure will probably be surpassed this decade, as well.

Morning thoughts... Clouds and a few scattered showers are possible this morning. The sun will return during the afternoon. Temperatures will be lower than they were yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal overall.

I agree. I believe nuclear power is part of a solution toward moving away from fossil fuels.

There’s no empirical evidence that rapid adoption of renewable energy, for which costs of production have been falling rapidly relative to fossil fuels—cost developments that have already rendered coal economically nonviable—would mean economic destruction. If anything, insistence on the status quo is far more likely to ensure that sustainable competitive advantages in energy will emerge outside the United States. The opportunity costs of such an outcome would only add to the already high and growing costs related to fossil fuel externalities that are currently borne by society rather than the industries responsible for that pollution. In fact, compelling society as a whole to bear those costs leads to severe underpricing of fossil fuels, both in absolute and relative terms. Had FDR had such limited confidence in American science, the U.S. would never have developed the atomic bomb ahead of Germany. Had JFK had such low confidence in the nation’s capacity to innovate, the U.S. would have resigned itself to Soviet domination in space. Had Reagan lacked confidence in the nation’s ability to replace CFC’s, Antarctica’s ozone hole would have continued to grow. All three cases were successful, because the nation’s leaders believed that its people, scientists, and industries could meet big challenges. Setting big challenges is not socialism. Socialism is defined by who owns the means of production. Instead, big challenges framed more appropriately are big opportunities for those who dare to pursue them. A “can’t do” perspective stifles the dynamism that is the soul of creative destruction. Creative destruction in which innovation, which often leverages scientific advances, supplants earlier technologies and entrepreneurs displace established firms, are major reasons why living standards have advanced. Locking in the status quo would constrain progress. A world in which innovation ceases would produce stagnation. One in which energy innovation is discouraged by protecting the politically-favored industries responsible for the anthropogenic emissions driving climate change will face increased heat, more expansive wildfires, more intense storms, rising sea levels as Greenland’s and Antarctica’s ice continue to melt, shifts in agriculture, shifts in the zones in which tropical diseases spread, among other adverse developments.

Under partly to mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 70s across much of the region today. Tomorrow will start off cloudy with a few showers. The sun could return later in the day. Temperatures will be likely rise only to the lower and middle 60s. Meanwhile, fresh off of its 3rd hottest September and hottest June-September period on record, Phoenix saw the high temperature reach an October record-tying 107° earlier today. Parts of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay saw temperatures topple monthly and even all-time high temperature records. Overall, the opening week of October will see generally cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week ahead of a renewed push of cool air. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. The latest EPS weeklies favor the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern for the second half of October. The development of this warmth also shows up on the 63-ensemble MME subseasonal guidance and latest weekly CFSv2 guidance. Overall, October will likely be somewhat warmer than normal in much of the region with temperatures generally 0.5° - 1.5° above normal. October could also be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +20.43. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.900. On September 30 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.490 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.564. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.

So here is peer reviewed papers on the MWP and LIA in other parts of the world that are probably ignored because it is very inconvenient to mainstream climate folks. How do we not know that we are just rebounding from the LIA with some added CO2 forcing and of course UHI effects which are often ignored too. Thank you for posting those papers. I will clarify my language to be somewhat more precise. Both the MCA (aka MWP) and LIA were largely regional events with a degree of global synchronicity. The magnitude of standardized temperature anomalies were nowhere near as uniform as they are today. The papers, if one reads closely to consider lags and areas covered (differences in Australia, parts of South America, parts of Antarctica), are still reasonably consistent with the temperature anomalies found by Mann et al. Here are the charts from the Mann paper: The Neukom et al., 2019 paper addresses the latest scientific understanding of past warm and cool epochs during the last 2,000 years and contrasts those periods with the ongoing anthropogenic warming. It explains: No preindustrial epoch shows global coherence in the timing of the coldest or warmest periods. There is, however, regional coherence. For example, there are almost continental-scale patterns during many of the periods, and there is a coherent pattern in the tropical Pacific in the RWP, DACP and LIA periods, reminiscent of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation—the most dominant mode of interannual variability in the climate system. In contrast to the spatial heterogeneity of the preindustrial era, the highest probability for peak warming over the entire Common Era is found in the late twentieth century almost everywhere (98% of global surface area), except for Antarctica, where contemporary warming has not yet been observed over the entire continent. Thus, even though the recent warming rates are not entirely homogeneous over the globe, with isolated areas showing little warming or even cooling, the climate system is now in a state of global temperature coherence that is unprecedented over the Common Era... Against this regional framing, perhaps our most striking result is the exceptional spatiotemporal coherence during the warming of the twentieth century. This result provides further evidence of the unprecedented nature of anthropogenic global warming in the context of the past 2,000 years. The underlining is mine. Here are the charts from the Neukom paper:

Morning thoughts... Today will be mainly sunny and pleasant across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 73° The first week of October will likely be cooler than normal overall. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 75.5° Average temperature: 75.4° Average error: 1.2° Newark: Average daily forecast: 77.4° Average temperature: 77.5° Average error: 1.2° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 77.6° Average temperature: 77.8° Average error: 1.3°

As noted previously, the MWP and LIA were regional events. The chart in question concerns global, not regional temperatures. As previously posted, three papers and the abstract of another (the full copy of which can be requested from the authors): https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1797.epdf?sharing_token=Pm1NFtFxqxcwIUqtvBVOsdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OXdKps0x-mydYxlxY1CTS2FraCgd_SIOyFr3Frnr2wB7rEiUt5oncmTKp32KflJCHeITcA-EqP5p3xfWpkUotuN0E3ir4Us_bcTtsZ27MrFmdPv9A4iznKkWIxs3GlY8t2zgJ1RqKr1SMAGJNtp3FZCGkf9OhfrosIZ6HA_48P3A%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.realclimate.org http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MannetalScience09.pdf https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/11/e1500806 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334662695_No_evidence_for_globally_coherent_warm_and_cold_periods_over_the_preindustrial_Common_Era

High solar activity was very likely the main cause. But in the background, fossil fuel consumption had begun to gradually increase starting around 1750. Such consumption would increase dramatically by the 20th century. http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/historical_tsi/

UHI plays a role, but one can’t exclude climate change. From the Phoenix NWS: https://twitter.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1300628556762939392?s=20

New study: Greenland is losing mass at the fastest rate during the Holocene. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2742-6.epdf

New York City is concluding September with a monthly mean temperature of 68.8° (0.8° above normal). A somewhat warmer than normal October lies ahead, with the second half of the month likely to be warmer relative to normal than the first half. Phoenix recorded just its 13th September on record with a mean temperature of 90° or above with a monthly mean temperature of 91.5°. That made September 2020 the 3rd warmest September on record. Phoenix also registered its hottest June-September period on record with a four-month mean temperature of 95.4°. The previous record was 93.9°, which was set in 2011. The June-September 2020 figure also exceeded the previous summer (June-August) record of 95.1°, which was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. Climate change contributed to this most recent heat event. Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion). The opening week of October will see generally cooler than normal conditions. No exceptional cold is likely. Warmer readings could return during the following week, though a renewed push of cool air remains possible. The latest EPS weeklies favor the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern for the second half of October. The development of this warmth also shows up on the 63-ensemble MME subseasonal guidance and latest weekly CFSv2 guidance. Overall, October will likely be somewhat warmer than normal in much of the region with temperatures generally 0.5° - 1.5° above normal. October could also be wetter than September in and around the New York City area. Since 1950, 10 of the 12 (83%) of the La Niña cases that followed an El Niño winter saw October receive more precipitation than September, including 7 of the 8 (88%) cases since 1980. October 1954 and October 1998 were the exceptions. The largest increase in precipitation occurred in 2005. September 2005 saw just 0.48" precipitation in New York City. October 2005 received 16.73" precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +16.11. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.039. On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.555 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.498. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Note: 1. https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicator-details/3983 2. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/12/eaay2368 3. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234114398_Global_increase_in_record-breaking_monthly-mean_temperatures

Phoenix Records a 90° Mean Temperature for September: Following its hottest summer on record, Phoenix experienced its 3rd warmest September on record with a mean temperature of 91.5° and warmest June-September period on record with an average temperature of 95.4°. 2020 was the 13th year on record where Phoenix recorded a mean temperature of 90.0° or above in September. 9/13 (69%) of those years have occurred 2000 or later and 4/13 (31%) have occurred 2010 or later. September 2020 is the most recent example demonstrating that anthropogenic climate change is producing what amounts to a lengthening summer. September 2020 Summary: Average high temperature: 104.1° (2nd highest) Average low temperature: 79.0° (9th highest) Average temperature: 91.5° (3rd highest) In addition, all five September cases with a monthly mean temperature of 91.0° or above occurred 2000 or later. Four (80%) of those cases occurred 2010 or later. During the 1980s, the 30-year moving average mean temperature for September broke out of the multi-decade range 84.0° - 85.0° that had held since 1950. The September mean temperature now exceeds 89.0°. The average high temperature now stands at 100° or above. The number of days on which the temperature reaches 100° or above has increased by 2.3 days since 2000. The number of days on which the temperature reaches 105° or above has increased by 2.0 days. The frequency of low temperatures at or above 80° has increased by 3.6 days since 2000. Such elevated minimum temperatures now account for nearly 3 out of every 8 days in September. Table 1: Select September Data (30-Year Moving Average) Table 2: Record High Maximum Temperatures Table 3: Record High Minimum Temperature June-September 2020 was, by far, the warmest June-September period on record for Phoenix. The four-month mean temperature was 95.4°. The old record was 93.9°, which was set in 2011. That four-month average exceeds the hottest summer temperature prior to 2020, which was 95.1°. That prior record was set in 2013 and tied in 2015. All 9 June-September periods with a mean temperature of 93.5° or above have occurred in 2000 or later. 6/9 (67%) have occurred during 2010 or later. The average June-September period is now as warm as the average summer was during the 30-year period ending in 2000. The last time Phoenix had a June-September mean temperature below 90° was 1984 when the four-month mean temperature was 89.8°. Table 4: Average Summer and June-September Temperatures (30-Year Moving Average) Just as summer 2020 provided a foretaste of the kind of summers that are expected to become routine by 2050 on account of climate change, September 2020 and the June-September 2020 period offered a glimpse into the future of longer summers that will continue to emerge from the evolving climate regime.