donsutherland1

For context, BGM’s 2-day record snowfall had been 35.3” (March 14-15, 2017). Prior to that, the record was 24.0” (February 19-20, 1972).

057 NOUS41 KBGM 171153 PNSBGM NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047- 048-072-172353- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 653 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New York... ...Broome County... 2 SW Nws Binghamton 41.0 in 0640 AM 12/17 NWS Employee Endicott 40.5 in 0550 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter Nws Binghamton 39.1 in 0605 AM 12/17 Official NWS Obs Johnson City 37.5 in 0455 AM 12/17 Public Vestal 37.0 in 0600 AM 12/17 Public 1 WSW Endwell 35.0 in 0510 AM 12/17 Public 2 E Vestal 31.7 in 0300 AM 12/17 NWS Employee 2 NNE Johnson City 31.0 in 0500 AM 12/17 Public Nanticoke 29.0 in 0636 AM 12/17 Public 2 SW Vestal Center 29.0 in 0235 AM 12/17 NWS Employee 2 NNW Port Crane 28.6 in 0615 AM 12/17 NWS Employee 1 WSW West Corners 28.5 in 0245 AM 12/17 NWS Employee 2 SE Union Center 27.0 in 0225 AM 12/17 NWS Employee Kirkwood 24.0 in 0625 AM 12/17 Public Whitney Point 21.0 in 0157 AM 12/17 Public ...Cayuga County... Union Springs 4.0 in 0530 AM 12/17 Public ...Chemung County... 1 ESE Horseheads North 13.0 in 0200 AM 12/17 Broadcast Media ...Chenango County... Preston 29.1 in 0535 AM 12/17 Cocorahs 1 N Mt Upton 25.0 in 0455 AM 12/17 Public Sherburne 21.0 in 0456 AM 12/17 Public Plymouth 19.5 in 0400 AM 12/17 Public Greene 15.0 in 0200 AM 12/17 Public ...Cortland County... 2 N Harford 15.0 in 0515 AM 12/17 Public 2 NW Mcgraw 11.5 in 0641 AM 12/17 Public ...Delaware County... Davenport 9.5 in 0110 AM 12/17 Public ...Oneida County... New Hartford 9.1 in 0601 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter Utica 8.6 in 0445 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter ...Onondaga County... Jamesville 8.0 in 0615 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter 1 NW Syracuse 3.5 in 0345 AM 12/17 Broadcast Media Baldwinsville 2.6 in 0626 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter ...Otsego County... Edmeston 24.0 in 0550 AM 12/17 Public 3 NE Mt Vision 20.5 in 0500 AM 12/17 Public Unadilla 19.5 in 0630 AM 12/17 Public Unadilla Forks 17.0 in 0600 AM 12/17 Public Laurens 12.0 in 0100 AM 12/17 Public ...Steuben County... Caton 18.0 in 0625 AM 12/17 Public ...Sullivan County... Kiamesha 12.0 in 0200 AM 12/17 Public ...Tioga County... 1 N Foster 38.0 in 0630 AM 12/17 NWS Employee Apalachin 38.0 in 0510 AM 12/17 Public Tioga Terrace 36.0 in 0445 AM 12/17 NWS Employee Newark Valley 35.0 in 0515 AM 12/17 Public Owego 26.0 in 0317 AM 12/17 Public ...Tompkins County... Freeville 16.0 in 0640 AM 12/17 Public Ithaca 9.0 in 0455 AM 12/17 Public 1 ESE Ithaca 9.0 in 0345 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter Etna 9.0 in 0315 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter ...Yates County... Italy Hill 8.5 in 0500 AM 12/17 Public Penn Yan 6.0 in 0445 AM 12/17 Public ...Pennsylvania... ...Bradford County... Litchfield 40.0 in 0445 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter 3 ENE Alba 36.0 in 0445 AM 12/17 Public 1 N Sayre 32.0 in 0500 AM 12/17 Public 1 SSW Sayre 32.0 in 0332 AM 12/17 Public 1 S Sayre 31.0 in 0545 AM 12/17 Public Alba 26.0 in 0420 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter Towanda 25.5 in 0234 AM 12/17 Public 3 WSW Browntown 20.0 in 0456 AM 12/17 Public ...Lackawanna County... 1 NNE Oakhill 8.0 in 0115 AM 12/17 Public Scranton 7.5 in 0100 AM 12/17 Amateur Radio ...Luzerne County... Dallas 12.5 in 0100 AM 12/17 Amateur Radio Lehman 12.0 in 1255 AM 12/17 Amateur Radio 1 SE Albert 10.0 in 0619 AM 12/17 Public ...Susquehanna County... Lenoxville 21.5 in 0217 AM 12/17 Public 1 N Montrose 18.0 in 0400 AM 12/17 Public Forest City 14.0 in 0630 AM 12/17 Public ...Wayne County... Hawley 14.0 in 0620 AM 12/17 Public &&

I agree. As long as the AO stays negative, there could be some more chances. As for Central Park, I suspect the final figure will be close to 10”. We’ll probably know soon.

IEMBot BGM @iembot_bgm · 13m At 5:50 AM EST, Endicott [Broome Co, NY] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HEAVY SNOW of 40.50 INCH https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#BGM/202012171050/202012171050 IEMBot ALY @iembot_aly · 2m At 6:27 AM EST, Clifton Park [Saratoga Co, NY] SOCIAL MEDIA reports HEAVY SNOW of 26.50 INCH. ESTIMATED BY PICTURE https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#ALY/202012171127/202012171127

Here is the daily listing. Climatological Data for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) - December 1896 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Snowfall Sum 1241 892 - - 941 0 1.13 13.0 Average 40.0 28.8 34.4 -3.1 - - - - Normal 43.0 32.0 37.5 - 852 0 4.00 4.8 1896-12-01 32 26 29.0 -13.4 36 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-02 26 22 24.0 -18.1 41 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-03 32 21 26.5 -15.2 38 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-04 43 26 34.5 -6.8 30 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-05 46 35 40.5 -0.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-06 51 42 46.5 5.9 18 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-07 55 41 48.0 7.7 17 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-08 54 38 46.0 6.1 19 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-09 54 44 49.0 9.5 16 0 0.26 0.0 1896-12-10 50 44 47.0 7.8 18 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-11 46 39 42.5 3.6 22 0 0.03 0.0 1896-12-12 50 37 43.5 5.0 21 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-13 57 45 51.0 12.8 14 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-14 47 35 41.0 3.1 24 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-15 35 28 31.5 -6.0 33 0 0.02 S 1896-12-16 31 23 27.0 -10.2 38 0 0.55 7.0A 1896-12-17 35 23 29.0 -7.9 36 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-18 44 30 37.0 0.4 28 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-19 37 25 31.0 -5.3 34 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-20 34 26 30.0 -6.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-21 35 25 30.0 -5.8 35 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-22 38 25 31.5 -4.0 33 0 0.12 S 1896-12-23 35 14 24.5 -10.7 40 0 0.15 6.0A 1896-12-24 22 9 15.5 -19.5 49 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-25 32 15 23.5 -11.3 41 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-26 34 23 28.5 -6.0 36 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-27 29 14 21.5 -12.8 43 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-28 31 20 25.5 -8.6 39 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-29 37 25 31.0 -2.9 34 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-30 43 38 40.5 6.8 24 0 0.00 0.0 1896-12-31 46 34 40.0 6.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 Reliable observation times are not available prior to 1982.

Morning thoughts... Snow will end early this morning as a strengthening storm moves away from the region. It will turn partly cloudy in much of the region during the afternoon, but remain windy. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 30° Newark: 32° Philadelphia: 34° In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures will run below normal for the remainder of the week.

There was a 7.0” figure in 1896. It was a 2-day figure (12/15-16) in the daily data, but all but 0.02” precipitation fell on 12/16. That may explain why all 7.0” was allocated to 12/16.

Numerous mPING reports show either sleet or a snow-sleet mixture in Westchester County right now.

The precipitation has lightened. Sleet is now falling in Larchmont, NY.

Two photos from this evening:

A major snowstorm is now blanketing much of the region. By the time the snow ends tomorrow, much of central Pennsylvania to New England will have picked up a foot or more of snow. Estimated total snowfall amounts include: Allentown: 12"-18" Boston: 8"-16" Bridgeport: 8"-16" Hartford: 12"-18" Islip: 5"-10" New York City: 7"-14" Newark: 7"-14" Philadelphia: 4"-8" Poughkeepsie: 12"-18" Providence: 6"-12" Some areas could see 20" or above snowfall amounts. Since 2010, the three biggest December snowstorms for Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia were: Boston: 18.2", December 25-27, 2010 7.1", December 1-3, 2019 6.4", December 17, 2013 New York City: 20.0", December 25-27, 2010 5.0", December 14-15, 2013 4.6", December 9-10, 2017 Philadelphia: 12.4", December 25-27, 2010 8.6", December 8, 2013 4.1", December 9-10, 2017 During the December 10-31, 1950-2019 period, an AO- was the most important teleconnection for a significant Middle Atlantic (6" or more) snowstorm. Since 1950, the following percentage of 6" or greater snowstorms occurred when the AO was negative: Boston: 50%; New York City: 75%; and, Philadelphia: 88%. There were 8 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to at least two of the following cities: Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. 7/8 (88%) occurred when the AO was negative. All storms from the subset from these 8 storms where 10" or more snow fell in at least one of those cities occurred with a negative AO. The most common synoptic pattern when at least two of the aforementioned cities picked up 6" or more snow (63%) was an AO-/PNA+ combination. The most recent such storm was the December 25-27, 2010 "Boxing Day Blizzard." With the persistence of Arctic blocking, uncertainty about the closing days of December has increased. At present, the guidance has backed off somewhat from the warmth that had been shown previously. Historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases suggests that a warmer than normal December remains the base case. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park (2020 saw the temperature average a record 52.9° in November) went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above. The probability of December's having a 40.0° or above mean temperature has fallen sharply with the development of strong AO blocking. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +28.65. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.009. That is the lowest AO value since February 1, 2019 when the AO was -3.315. On December 15 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.868 (RMM). The December 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.070. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is into the final week of December. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.4°.

It’s colder than modeled.

Mamaroneck, NY:

The beginning of the snowstorm:

IAD had reported 2.1" so far. Adams Morgan 1 ESE in Washington, DC reported 1.0". Reagan National Airport had reported a trace.

I believe you have an arrest to make. The crime is attempted theft of snow. On a more serious note, light snow has now been reported even in parts of Manhattan.

As per mPING, there is some snow in such locations as Princeton and Freehold.

At 9:45, snow was advancing through West Virginia, western Virginia and western Maryland. Snow was reported in the Washington, DC suburbs including Gaithersburg, MD, Fair Oaks, VA, and Vienna, VA. While we wait for the snow to commence here, it's worth noting that if both New York City and Boston pick up 10" or more snow while both Baltimore and Washington, DC pick up less than 4" snow, that would be a rare outcome. Since 1892, there have been just 4 storms that produced such snowfall amounts. The sample size is 402 storms. The most recent such storm occurred on February 8-9, 2013.

IMO, 6”-10”. Hopefully, the guidance will still improve a little as the day goes on and things will verify higher in the end.

You can find the maps here: https://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=BOX Just substitute the various NWSWFOs for the area you are looking for.

Morning thoughts... A significant to major Middle Atlantic and New England snowstorm will impact the region later today into early tomorrow. Snow will move into Philadelphia during the afternoon and then New York City area toward or during the evening. Parts of the region will pick up more than a foot of snow. Near blizzard or even blizzard conditions are possible at the height of the storm tomorrow night. Estimated accumulations: Allentown: 12”-18” Boston: 7”-14” Bridgeport: 8”-16” Islip: 5”-10” New York City: 7”-14” Newark: 7”-14” Philadelphia: 4”-8” Poughkeepsie: 12”-18” Providence: 6”-12” Since 1900, there have been only 7 years that saw a snowstorm bring 6” or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia in December: 1909, 1912, 1945, 1947, 1960, 2009, and 2010. In some cases, winter proved to be snowier than normal. In one (1912-13), the winter saw below normal snowfall. At New York City, 11.4” snow fell on December 24. The remainder of winter saw just 3.1” snow. In stark contrast, winters 1947-48, 1960-61, 2009-10, and 2010-11 saw much additional snowfall after December. Clouds will increase. Snow will overspread the region during the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the lower and middle 30s across most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 35° Philadelphia: 37° In the wake of the snowstorm, temperatures will run below normal for the remainder of the week.

The historic probability of normal to above normal snowfall would increase, especially if December sees 10” or more snow. The last 10 days of December are colder than what had been modeled.

A major storm will develop and move off the northern Delmarva Peninsula and pass south of Long Island Wednesday into Thursday. Parts of the region will pick up a significant snowfall. Estimated snowfall amounts include: Allentown: 12"-18" Boston: 6"-12" Bridgeport: 8"-14" Islip: 4"-8" New York City: 6"-12" Newark: 6"-12" Philadelphia: 4"-8" Poughkeepsie: 12"-18" Providence: 6"-12" Since 2010, the three biggest December snowstorms for Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia were: Boston: 18.2", December 25-27, 2010 7.1", December 1-3, 2019 6.4", December 17, 2013 New York City: 20.0", December 25-27, 2010 5.0", December 14-15, 2013 4.6", December 9-10, 2017 Philadelphia: 12.4", December 25-27, 2010 8.6", December 8, 2013 4.1", December 9-10, 2017 During the December 10-31, 1950-2019 period, an AO- was the most important teleconnection for a significant Middle Atlantic (6" or more) snowstorm. Since 1950, the following percentage of 6" or greater snowstorms occurred when the AO was negative: Boston: 50%; New York City: 75%; and, Philadelphia: 88%. There were 8 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to at least two of the following cities: Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia. 7/8 (88%) occurred when the AO was negative. All storms from the subset from these 8 storms where 10" or more snow fell in at least one of those cities occurred with a negative AO. The most common synoptic pattern when at least two of the aforementioned cities picked up 6" or more snow (63%) was an AO-/PNA+ combination. The most recent such storm was the December 25-27, 2010 "Boxing Day Blizzard." With the persistence of Arctic blocking, uncertainty about the closing days of December has increased. At present, the guidance has backed off somewhat from the warmth that had been shown previously. Historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases suggests that a warmer than normal December remains the base case. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park (2020 saw the temperature average a record 52.9° in November) went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above. The probability of December's having a 40.0° or above mean temperature has fallen sharply with the development of strong AO blocking. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +19.88. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.891. That is the lowest AO value since February 1, 2019 when the AO was -3.315. On December 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.052 (RMM). The December 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.495. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the third week of December. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December. December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.7°.

It was. I didn't copy it when I was scrolling through my list, but have added it since.

Such events that bring 12" to State College and New York City are uncommon. The most recent was the President's Day snowstorm of 2003. Major Snowstorms that Brought 12" or more Snow to State College and New York City: February 4-7, 1920: State College: 16.5"; New York City: 17.5" February 3-4, 1961: State College: 16.7"; New York City: 17.4" January 12-13, 1964: State College: 27.5"; New York City: 12.5" January 19-20, 1978: State College: 12.8"; New York City: 13.6" January 7-8, 1996: State College: 17.5"; New York City: 20.2" February 16-17, 2003: State College: 18.2"; New York City: 19.8"