donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 60 and lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is underway.

Temperatures rose into the upper 60s with some lower 70s across the region today. Tomorrow could be several degrees warmer in many parts of the region. Widespread record warmth again prevailed in the western half of the United States from the Southwest into the Northern Plains. Records included: Bismarck: 77° (old record: 76°, 2016) El Paso: 85° (old record: 82°, 1916, 1924 and 1945) Helena: 76° (old record: 68°, 2001) ***New November Record*** Missoula, MT: 69° (old record: 67°, 1934 and 2012) Montreal: 69° (old record: 66°, 1988) Phoenix: 99° (old record: 93°, 2007) ***New November Record*** Rapid City: 79° (old record: 77°, 2016) Scottsbluff, NE: 81° (old record: 79°, 1914) Tucson: 94° (old record: 92°, 2009) ***Tied November Record*** The core of the exceptional warmth that has been setting records across the Plains States into the Great Lakes region will gradually shift eastward. This weekend into the start of next week, it will be focused on the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario and Quebec. As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will become established in the Western third of the United States. By the end of the weekend or early next week, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The probability that November will have a mean temperature of 50° or above in Central Park has increased. The last time that occurred was 2015. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was -5.79. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.694. That is the highest AO figure since March 24, 2020 when the AO was +3.968. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.748 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.748. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

Phoenix Experiences its Warmest 5-Day November Period on Record Today, the temperature rose to 99° at Phoenix. That surpassed the previous November record by 3°. It also contributed to both the warmest November 1-5 on record and warmest 5-day November period on record. November 1-5 Averages: High Temperature: 95.2° (1st Warmest: old record: 92.2°, 1924) Low Temperature: 65.2° (2nd Warmest) Mean Temperature: 80.2° (1st Warmest; old record: 77.7°, 2001) Days 95° or Above: 3 (old record: 2, 1924) Since 1895, Phoenix has had just 7 November days on which the temperature reached 95° or above. Those days are: November 1, 1924: 96° November 2, 1924: 96° November 4, 2001: 95° November 3, 2009: 96° November 1, 2020: 96° November 2, 2020: 95° November 5, 2020: 99° As a result, Phoenix has now had 172 days on which the temperature has reached 95° or above during 2020. The old record was 166 days, which was set in 1989. In terms of the warmest 5-day November period on record, the average high temperature surpassed the old record of 93.0°, which was set during November 3-7, 2007. The average mean temperature eclipsed the previous mark of 78.9°, which was set during November 4-8, 2007. The previous latest 5-day period with an average high temperature of 95.0° or above was October 26-30, 2016 when the average high temperature was 95.6°. The previous latest 5-day period with an average temperature of 80.0° or above was October 29-November 2, 1988 when the temperature averaged 80.1°. Table 1: Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Table 2: Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

The Euro Monthly Guidance is very warm. Hopefully, it won’t verify.

The pieces are starting to fall into place for an EPO+/AO+ winter.

The record is 7 days, which occurred in 1953.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 68° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is now underway.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow will be even warmer. Some locations could approach or reach 70°. Record-tying and record-breaking warmth prevailed from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region today. High temperatures included: Bismarck: 76° (old record: 75°, 1975) Chicago: 74° (tied record set in 1978) Duluth: 73° (old record: 71°, 1903) ***Tied November Record*** Fargo: 74° (old record: 70°, 1975) ***Tied November Record*** Grand Island, NE: 84° (old record: 79°, 2016) International Falls, MN: 74° (old record: 67°, 1975) ***New November Record*** Milwaukee: 73° (tied record set in 2008) Minneapolis: 74° (tied record set in 1975) Scottsbluff, NE: 80° (old record: 79°, 1924) ***Tied November Record*** Wausau, WI: 72° (old record: 70°, 2008) This area of much above normal temperatures will again cover the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region tomorrow. Afterward, this exceptional warmth will shift eastward and be centered over the Great Lakes Region and eastward. Phoenix, coming off its hottest June-October on record could reach or exceed its November record high temperature of 96°, which was tied on November 1. During the weekend, this warmth be centered over the Great Lakes region and southern Ontario into southern Quebec. As a result, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +3.37. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.919. That is the highest AO figure since March 14, 2020 when the AO was +2.928. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.977. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° The start of an extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is imminent.

Despite a gusty wind, temperatures across the region climbed into the 50s today. Tomorrow will be even milder. Some locations could reach or exceed 60°. This afternoon, Hurricane Eta made landfall in Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. Scientific evidence that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms has increased (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion). Record high temperatures were set across the Northern and Central Plains today. Records included: Bismarck: 76° (old record: 70°, 1949) Denver: 79° (tied record set in 1915) Fargo: 71° (old record: 70°, 1903) Grand Forks, ND: 71° (old record: 69°, 1903) Grand Island, NE: 85° (old record: 79°, 1978) Lincoln, NE: 83° (old record: 79°, 2008) Omaha: 81° (old record: 79°,2008) This area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains tomorrow and Thursday. Readings could again reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck. Afterward, this exceptional warmth will shift to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +14.76. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.181. On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.978 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.062. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Note: 1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

Not for now. The EPS weeklies are not looking good through the remainder of the month, though skill levels drop markedly after week 2.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and warmer than yesterday. A gusty wind will slowly diminish during the day. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and perhaps middle 50s across the area. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 55° An extended period of above normal to much above normal temperatures is imminent.

Despite bright sunshine, temperatures rose only into the 40s across the region. A strong wind created a mid-winter feel. High temperatures included: Allentown: 45° Boston: 44° Bridgeport: 45° Hartford: 43° Islip: 45° New York City: 44° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 49° Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal. Overnight into early tomorrow, Hurricane Eta will track toward Nicaragua. At 7 pm EST, Eta's maximum sustained winds had increased to 150 mph. Eta will likely make landfall as a Category 4 or even Category 5 storm. Eta will very likely fall into the category of retired storms. How that is managed remains to be seen, as no storm named after the letters of the Greek alphabet had previously met the threshold for the retirement of its name. For perspective, the strongest November Atlantic basin hurricane was Hurricane Lenny (1999) with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Yesterday, Super Typhoon Goni became the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall, as it came ashore in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 195 mph. Scientific evidence has increased that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion). Through 7 pm EST, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-breaking 205th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. The record of 204 consecutive days occurred from May 7, 2016 through November 26, 2016. Across the Atlantic, much of western Europe experienced widespread record daily and monthly high temperatures. Record monthly temperatures included: Berlin: 68°; Frankfurt: 72°; Fritzlar, Germany: 70°; Joenkoeping, Sweden: 59°; Luxembourg: 68°; Stockholm: 59°; Wiesbaden, Germany: 72°; and, Zurich: 72°. Parts of the western United States and Canada experienced near record, daily record, and monthly record high temperatures. Select high temperatures included: Bassano, Alberta: 79°; Billings: 72°; Great Falls: 70°; and, Redmond, OR: 80°. By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +23.35. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.080. On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.041 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.236. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Finally, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was at 6.992 million square kilometers on November 1. That is the first time Arctic sea ice extent was below 7 million square kilometers on November 1. The previous record low figure was 7.034 million square kilometers, which was established in 2016. Note: 1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

Morning thoughts... At 7:45 AM, areas of snow covered large portions of central New York State including Cartland, Syracuse, and Oneida. A heavier snow shower was also located near Naugatuck in Connecticut. Today will be partly sunny, windy and cold. Some areas could see snow flurries or snow showers. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower and middle 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° During and after mid-week, an extended period of warmer temperatures is likely.

A winter like 1998-99 with widespread warmth is among the possibilities. Other scenarios still exist.

A strong cold front is now moving across the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and windy with temperatures staying in the 40s. A few locations could see some snow flurries. Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal. By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. Through 7 pm, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-tying 204th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. Las Vegas would extend its record to 195 days. The previous record there was 150 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-July 21, 1959. In addition, Phoenix saw the temperature reach 96° today. That tied the daily record set in 1924. It also tied the November record set on November 1, 1924 and tied on November 2, 1924 and November 3, 2009. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +28.76. That is the highest SOI value since April 2, 2018 when the SOI was +31.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.546. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.235 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.371. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Morning thoughts... At 7:45 AM, an area of rain associated with an advancing cold front stretched from Ohio into Ontario. Another area of rain and showers that extended from portions of South Carolina into Virginia was heading northeastward. Clouds will increase during the day and some showers and periods of rain are likely during the afternoon and evening hours. It will be mild. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 58° Tomorrow will be very windy, blustery and cold. Some snow flurries and heavier snow showers are possible in parts of the region. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 63.4° Average temperature: 63.2° Average error: 1.3° Newark: Average daily forecast: 65.8° Average temperature: 65.4° Average error: 1.7° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 66.7° Average temperature: 67.1° Average error: 1.3°

A Very Warm October Concludes in Phoenix Today, the temperature rose to 86° at Phoenix. That concluded an abnormally warm October and, by far, the warmest June-October period on record in Phoenix. October Averages: Mean Temperature: 80.9° (4th warmest) High Temperature: 95.0° (3rd warmest) Low Temperature: 66.8° (14th warmest) Days 100° or Above: 12 (2nd most) Days 105° or Above: 5 (old record: 2, 1980) June-October Averages: Mean Temperature: 92.5° (Old record: 91.5°, 2003) High Temperature: 104.9° (Old record: 103.0°, 2003) Low Temperature: 80.1° (Old record: Tie 80.0°, 2003 and 2015) As a result of October's 12 100° or above days, 2020 set a new record of 145 such days. The old record was 143 days, which was set in 1989. Table 1: Most 100° or Above Days during a Calendar Year Table 2: 30-Year Moving Average of 100° or Above Days Table 3: Progression of the Records for 100°+, 105°+, 110°+, and 115°+ Days Table 4: 100° or Above Temperatures that Tied or Set Daily Records:

Despite abundant sunshine, much of the region saw high temperatures reach no higher than the 40s. October 2020 had a monthly mean temperature of 57.9°, which was 1.0° above normal. Parts of New England experienced a historic October snowfall yesterday. Select seasonal snowfall totals through today are: Albany: 1.2" (2019-2020: 49.7") Boston: 4.3" (2019-2020: 15.8") Caribou: 1.5" (2019-2020: 151.9") November will commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop latter part of the first week of November. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal and November should wind up somewhat warmer than normal overall (1° to 2° above normal). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +20.30. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.209. On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.369 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.277. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the middle 40s making for a perfect mid-autumn day. Three photos:

The CFSv2 has so far been closer on the progression of the La Niña than some of the other guidance. October will likely have a Region 3.4 anomaly of -1.5 C to -1.3 C. November and December should have even colder anomalies if much of the guidance is reasonably accurate as to the progression. That could result in a tri-monthly figure of -1.5 C or below.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.7 3.6 3.5 2.1 Snowfall DCA : 6.0" NYC : 11.5" BOS : 28.0" ORD : 38.5" DTW : 44.0" BUF : 87.0" DEN : 57.5" BTV : 72.9" SEA : 3.4"

As expected, even as many parts of the region saw the coldest October temperatures in 32 years, temperatures were much warmer than those forecast by the Parallel GFS. This recent example is illustrative of the issue one may see on several occasions during the winter where this model shows extreme cold in the medium or extended range. Without support from the other guidance, one should be wary if this model is a cold outlier. The general idea of coming cold was good (and seen by the other guidance). The magnitude of the cold is where this model had its problems.

Morning thoughts... As of 8:00 AM, low temperatures around the region included: Albany: 19°; Allentown: 26°; Boston: 28°; Bridgeport: 31°; Danbury: 23°; Harrisburg: 35°; Hartford: 24°; Islip: 29°; New York City: 32°; Newark: 32°; Philadelphia: 34°; Poughkeepsie: 23°; Scranton: 28°; and, White Plains: 28° That was New York City’s first October freeze since way back on October 31, 1988 when the mercury fell to 31°. Thick frost was present across much of the region. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures will moderate during the daytime. Nevertheless high temperatures will rise no higher than the 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 49° Tomorrow will be milder, but an approaching cold front will bring periods of rain.

Yes. First October freeze there since October 31, 1988.