donsutherland1

If that were the only such report, one could argue that it is an outlier. However, it is not the only such report. A peer-reviewed study: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211

Morning thoughts... Delta’s remnants will produce a rainy day with a chilly east-northeast to northeast wind. Temperatures will likely be confined to the 50s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 60° Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will depart tomorrow and the sun will return, along with a rebound in temperatures.

That pales in comparison to the threat posed by climate change. https://www.audubon.org/climate/survivalbydegrees

As of 8 pm EDT, rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta has now reached Philadelphia. Rainfall from Delta will likely impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A widespread 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Tomorrow will see temperatures remain largely in the upper 50s to near 60° in much of the region. Nevertheless, generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The potential exists for a fairly sharp shot of cold just after mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +11.99. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.329. On October 10 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.681 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.719. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°.

The scientific profession defines its own standards. Quality involves study design, research questions, methods of research, evidence related to the research questions, etc. Today, AGW is to climate science what Evolution is to biology. That’s based on the evidence that has been gathered.

I don’t know of any serious policy proposals that would seek an abrupt shift. All, even AOC’s “Green New Deal,” which is more than just climate legislation, have a transition. Technology sharing will almost certainly be part of any effective coordinated multilateral approach in a shift toward renewable energy. Moreover, just as has been the case with prior technologies, there will likely be significant improvements in renewable energy technologies in coming years.

Quality research would get published. Claims that lack evidence would not.

He provided a chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that shows the production costs per megawatt hour. Of course, that’s a financial not economic cost perspective. Fossil fuel financial costs don’t consider externalities, the costs of which are borne by society. That leads to an understatement of such costs from a full cost perspective. Once those costs are considered, the advantage for renewables is even larger.

I accept that the climate scientists have gained sufficient understanding of what is happening (observed warming) and its dominant cause (greenhouse gases) to reach valid conclusions. The literature is very explicit about uncertainties where they exist (feedbacks, etc.). The debate isn’t “over,” because scientists have arbitrarily said it is over. It is over, because no scientifically-valid alternative to AGW has been advanced in the literature. Objections have been empty—not backed by literature. At the same time, understanding of the role greenhouse gases are playing has increased and the expected warming has materialized. Should credible scientific research emerge, I have to reason to believe climate scientists, like their peers in other scientific fields, would not examine that data with the kind of open-mindedness that is a hallmark of science. Unfortunately, those who reject AGW refuse to look at the now overwhelming body of evidence in favor of AGW with that kind of open-mindedness. They simply dismiss AGW or minimize its consequences without having any body of credible research to back their objections.

Morning thoughts... Partly sunny skies will yield to increasing clouds. Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will begin to overspread the region late in the day or during the evening. Before then, temperatures will likely reach the middle and even upper 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 69° Yesterday, Atlanta picked up a daily record 4.55" rainfall (old record: 3.42", 2018) from the remnants of Delta. A general 1"-3" rainfall remains likely across the region with some locally higher amounts.

No. That’s an extraordinary claim I cannot accept. Those who reject AGW as the explanation for the most recent ongoing climate change have no credible evidence to undercut AGW. They cannot dismiss the rising greenhouse gas forcing and its impact without overturning the laws of physics and the basic properties of carbon dioxide and methane. They cannot counter the reality that natural forcings alone—solar and volcanic—would have produced slight cooling in recent decades, not the dramatic warming that has occurred. Without sufficient and credible evidence to support anti-AGW arguments, there is no alternative scientific case. There is only an alternative belief. Nothing more. Beliefs are not science. One either believes something or one doesn’t. No evidence, facts, or logic are necessary to sustain beliefs. The claim that science is “corrupted” is an attempt to evade the reality that there is no credible scientific case against AGW. That science and scientists will not embrace the largely unfounded beliefs of those who wish to avoid the scientific conclusion concerning climate change that has been drawn from an overwhelming and still growing body of evidence does not make science “corrupted.” Quite frankly, that line of attack on science has no merit. It seeks to demean science as a profession. It seeks to discredit the enormous number of people in all scientific fields who have devoted their lives to pushing the frontiers of human knowledge and whose efforts have made possible much of the progress that humanity has achieved from applications of that knowledge.

Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta will likely impact the tomorrow night through Tuesday. The potential exists for a widespread 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +14.31. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.931. On October 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.713 (RMM). The October 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.513. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°.

Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature rose to 70° at Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, the chrysanthemum show was underway. Five photos: Finally, on this date in 1979, wet snow fell in many parts of the region, including New York City.

The scientific literature disagrees. Here is the abstract from one recent paper: Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57–70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16–30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive. https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and very warm for the season. Temperatures will rise into the middle and even upper 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 76° Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will impact the region from late tomorrow through Tuesday. The potential exists for a widespread 1"-3" rainfall with some locally higher amounts.

There is a lot of merit to that Planck quote. Fortunately, at least as far as climate science is concerned, the science has triumphed. No credible opposition to AGW remains. From the sidelines, there continues to be noisy objections—most of it from those who have no background in climate science and a vanquished few who proved unable to build a credible alternative scientific case—but the literature reflects the reality that AGW is the dominant cause of contemporary climate change. Uncertainties in various areas e.g., feedbacks, persist, but the overarching idea about the causation of contemporary climate change has been established. Where inroads remain to be made is on the policy front. At present large carbon emitters are permitted to dump their emissions into the climate system with impunity. Their products are underpriced, as the costs of their emissions are isolated from their cost structures and instead incurred by society. They also receive billions of dollars in subsidies that incentivize increases in such pollution. Thus, market function is actually impaired by these distortions and shifts toward cleaner energy are impeded. That will likely gradually begin to change. But once the Millennials and Generation Z, whose life exposure to climate change is far greater than that for preceding generations, gain political clout, much more rapid change is likely. Opinion surveys show that they do not view the fossil fuel industry as sufficiently sacrosanct that it must be held immune to the costs and consequences of its emissions. The worldview that seems to arise out of the polling is the idea that society isn’t built around industry, but that industry is part of society. With that comes responsibilities to society. That’s where the issue of externalities (carbon pollution in this case) arises. Under the former mindset, it’s accepted (and acceptable by industry advocates) that the costs of externalities be borne by society. In the latter, all costs, including those associated with externalities, should be borne by those responsible. In a way, even as the language appears absent from what I have read about the rising younger generations, this amounts to a rediscovery of the old idea of individual responsibility.

Today was a mild October day with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be even warmer with highs topping out in the middle 70s in many parts of the region. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta, which made landfall near Creole, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph early this evening, will likely impact the region Sunday night through Tuesday. The potential exists for a moderate to significant rainfall in parts of the region. There remains uncertainty about rainfall amounts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +19.53. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.600. On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.510 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.295. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

One plausible explanation is status quo bias. Bias for the status quo, with which people are familiar, can impede rational judgment about choices. In status quo bias, perceptions of risk are disconnected from objective factors and are skewed in favor of the present state of affairs. Change from the status quo is seen as inherently risky. Thus, when it comes to cost-benefit analysis, the benefits of the present are overstated while the costs of some new state are exaggerated. Therefore, even when the status quo is unsustainable and costly—as is the case with fossil fuels and the impact of resulting greenhouse gas emissions—and an alternative state offers more long-term benefits (reduction of the discounted future costs of climate change), the status quo is embraced. This bias impairs judgment, nourishes motivated reasoning (which reinforces preferences for the status quo), and contributes to the common phenomenon where companies and societies often fail to make necessary changes until a crisis has erupted.

As with other technologies as they advanced, one will likely see efficiency gains with renewables. That will lead to more output relative to the size of solar and wind farms, meaning fewer or smaller solar and wind farms would be necessary for a given level of output. There is also nuclear power. Finally, even as it is invisible, the dumping of greenhouse gas emissions into the climate system is having a growing adverse impact. The changing climate poses major risks to nature, including wildlife e.g., reduced biodiversity. Some recent papers: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/685 https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaaq1819.short If one truly cherishes nature and wildlife, why would one advocate a continuation of the very practices that pose perhaps the greatest long-term threat to nature and wildlife?

Morning thoughts... At 7 am, temperatures included: Allentown: 40°; Islip: 48°; New York City: 53°; Newark: 50°; Philadelphia: 50°; Poughkeepsie: 37°; Westhampton: 36°; and, White Plains: 48°. After a cool start, a warmer afternoon is in store. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 71° Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will likely impact the region from late Sunday through Tuesday.

Despite bright sunshine, the temperature rose only into the lower and middle 60s across the region. After a cool night, a warmup will commence. Readings will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow. Afterward, generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta, which will likely make landfall as a Category 2 or perhaps Category 3 hurricane along the Louisiana coast on Friday, will likely impact the region Sunday night through Tuesday. The potential exists for a moderate to possibly significant rainfall in parts of the region. There remains considerable uncertainty. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +13.92. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.024. On October 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.285 (RMM). The October 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.215. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

The latest EPS weeklies and the subseasonal guidance favor cooler conditions during the last week or so in October. Whether they continue beyond that, should they develop, remains uncertain.

Heat and drought have been feeding off one another. Such situations are expected to become increasingly common as the climate continues to warm. Through yesterday, Las Vegas had seen no measurable rainfall for 170 consecutive days (the old record was 150 days).

No one is ducking anything. I recognize that renewable energy is still evolving and that their are some issues. @skierinvermont provided some concrete data. Exaggerated claims don’t accurately reflect the situation. Ignoring the CO2 emissions of fossil fuels skews the picture, as the true costs and hazards are set aside to sustain an inaccurate picture of costs, trade-offs, etc.

Numerous scientists do not view wood-burning as green energy. I believe their case is strong. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9HP_Rf4_eHtQUpyLVIzZE8zQWc/view