donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and milder. Some showers are possible. Initially, there could be some freezing rain, especially north and west of Newark and New York City. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 44° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.9° Newark: 30-Year: 40.5°; 15-Year: 41.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.8° Another system could bring snow to parts of the region on Friday. Most of the region could be in line for a 1”-3”/2”-4” snowfall, but eastern New England and eastern Suffolk County could see an area of 3”-6” snowfall.

Milder air will return tomorrow ahead of the next cold front. There could be some showers. It will turn colder on Thursday ahead of a possible snowfall on Friday. At present, it appears that the storm will develop a little too far offshore and too late to deliver a significant snowfall to the region. Instead, it could be the type of storm that brings a 1"-3"/2"-4" snowfall with higher amounts in eastern New England and across eastern Long Island. January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather is underway. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada through this week. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Arctic air could reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. There is a chance that temperatures will fall well into the teens and perhaps even single digits in New York City early next week. The colder pattern that has discontinuously developed just after the New Year last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +3.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.649 today. On January 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.183 (RMM). The January 1-adjusted amplitude was 2.086 (RMM).

Washington, DC has now gone 1,066 days since its last sub-20 temperature.

February 1989 had a monthly total of 1.0” at DCA. 2/24 brought just 0.3”. December 1989 was much snowier with 9.0”. 12/8 3.6” and 12/12-13 4.5” were the biggest events.

Yes, you are correct. It was only the 10th day with 12.0” or more, half of which have occurred since 2000.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 35° Philadelphia: 34° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 41.1° Newark: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 41.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.9°; 15-Year: 42.9° Another system could bring snow to parts of the region on Friday.

NOUS41 KPHI 040436 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-041636- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1136 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Kent County... Hartly 13.0 in 0238 PM 01/03 Public Harrington 12.2 in 0701 PM 01/03 Mesonet 3 SW Magnolia 11.0 in 0315 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 SE Woodside 10.5 in 0317 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 2 WNW Frederica 10.3 in 0312 PM 01/03 Public 1 WSW Dover Air Force Base 10.0 in 0320 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Woodside 10.0 in 0700 PM 01/03 Mesonet Frederica 9.6 in 0701 PM 01/03 Mesonet Smyrna 8.9 in 0700 PM 01/03 Mesonet Dover 8.5 in 0700 PM 01/03 Mesonet 3 S Kitts Hummock 7.7 in 0315 PM 01/03 Public West Dover 7.6 in 0700 PM 01/03 Mesonet Clayton 7.5 in 0800 PM 01/03 Public ...New Castle County... Bear 6.5 in 0820 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Blackbird 6.2 in 0659 PM 01/03 Mesonet Middletown 6.0 in 0333 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Summit Bridge 5.5 in 0204 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Port Penn 5.1 in 0659 PM 01/03 Mesonet 2 WSW Summit Bridge 3.0 in 1058 AM 01/03 Public Glasgow 2.2 in 0659 PM 01/03 Mesonet New Castle 1.6 in 0659 PM 01/03 Mesonet New Castle County Airport 1.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 ASOS Talley 0.5 in 0657 PM 01/03 Mesonet White Clay Creek 0.5 in 0658 PM 01/03 Mesonet Newark 0.4 in 0658 PM 01/03 Mesonet ...Sussex County... Ellendale 14.5 in 0702 PM 01/03 Mesonet 1 NW Georgetown 12.6 in 0634 PM 01/03 Broadcast Media 1 WNW Georgetown 12.5 in 0443 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Georgetown 12.0 in 0346 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 SSE Bridgeville 12.0 in 0413 PM 01/03 Storm Chaser 1 WSW Milton 11.6 in 0213 PM 01/03 Public Milford 10.0 in 0230 PM 01/03 Public Bridgeville 9.3 in 0703 PM 01/03 Mesonet Millsboro 9.0 in 0430 PM 01/03 Public Millsboro 9.0 in 1041 PM 01/03 Public Stockley 7.7 in 0702 PM 01/03 Mesonet 1 WSW Lewes 7.0 in 0400 PM 01/03 Public 2 SW Rehoboth Beach 6.0 in 0330 PM 01/03 Public Dagsboro 5.5 in 0701 PM 01/03 Mesonet 3 SW Long Neck 5.0 in 0105 PM 01/03 Public Lewes 5.0 in 0400 PM 01/03 Public Delmar 4.5 in 1040 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Nassau 4.4 in 0701 PM 01/03 Mesonet Greenwood 4.0 in 1003 AM 01/03 Public ...Maryland... ...Caroline County... Henderson 11.0 in 0403 PM 01/03 Public Goldsboro 10.0 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr Greensboro 9.8 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr 2 SSE Templeville 9.0 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr Preston 8.0 in 0307 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr Denton 7.0 in 0309 PM 01/03 Emergency Mngr ...Kent County... Rock Hall 9.5 in 0500 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Millington 7.3 in 1230 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Queen Anne`s County... Grasonville 10.5 in 0200 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Stevensville 9.0 in 0340 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Kingstown 7.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Starr 6.9 in 1107 AM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Talbot County... Easton 9.0 in 0400 PM 01/03 Public Royal Oak 8.0 in 1240 PM 01/03 CO-OP Observer ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Egg Harbor Twp. 13.5 in 0730 PM 01/03 Public Estell Manor 13.3 in 0400 PM 01/03 Public Absecon 13.0 in 0343 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Atlantic City International 13.0 in 0700 PM 01/03 ASOS Northfield 12.4 in 0530 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 3 NE Hamilton Twp 12.0 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Somers Point 11.4 in 0405 PM 01/03 Public Galloway Twp 11.2 in 0500 PM 01/03 Public Somers Point 11.0 in 0420 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Mays Landing 11.0 in 0527 PM 01/03 Broadcast Media Egg Harbor Twp 10.0 in 0302 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Corbin City 9.8 in 0644 PM 01/03 Public 1 ESE Egg Harbor Twp. 9.5 in 0345 PM 01/03 Public Port Republic 9.0 in 0922 PM 01/03 Public Hammonton 8.5 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Burlington County... 1 ESE Leisuretowne 2.8 in 0120 PM 01/03 NWS Employee 2 W Medford Twp. 2.0 in 1121 AM 01/03 Public 1 WNW South Jersey Regional 1.2 in 0544 PM 01/03 NWS Employee Lumberton 0.8 in 0142 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Delran 0.6 in 1230 PM 01/03 NWS Employee Mount Holly WFO 0.6 in 0100 PM 01/03 Official NWS Obs ...Camden County... Winslow Twp 5.5 in 0130 PM 01/03 Public 1 SW Pine Hill 4.0 in 1200 PM 01/03 Public 1 WSW Lindenwold 4.0 in 0300 PM 01/03 Public Gloucester Twp 3.8 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Lindenwold 3.5 in 0215 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Cherry Hill 3.0 in 0103 PM 01/03 Public Haddon Heights 1.6 in 1227 PM 01/03 Public Bellmawr 1.3 in 1200 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Cape May County... Ocean City 14.0 in 0522 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Seaville 13.0 in 0643 PM 01/03 Public Petersburg 12.5 in 0427 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Villas 11.5 in 0426 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Cape May 11.5 in 0500 PM 01/03 Public Wildwood Crest 11.5 in 0628 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Ocean View 11.3 in 0147 PM 01/03 Public Wildwood 11.3 in 0600 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter North Cape May 10.3 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public Marmora 9.7 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public 1 SE Marmora 9.0 in 0500 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Woodbine 8.5 in 0922 PM 01/03 Public North Wildwood 8.0 in 0400 PM 01/03 Public ...Cumberland County... Port Norris 10.7 in 0501 PM 01/03 Public Millville 6.3 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Newport 6.0 in 0330 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Cedarville 5.5 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public Bridgeton 5.0 in 0400 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Upper Deerfield Twp 4.5 in 0100 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Gloucester County... Newfield 6.5 in 0520 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Franklinville 5.5 in 0330 PM 01/03 Public Williamstown 5.3 in 0248 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Washington Twp 5.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Greenwich Twp 4.5 in 0250 PM 01/03 Public Mantua 4.0 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Glassboro 3.4 in 1127 AM 01/03 Public West Deptford Twp 3.4 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public ...Ocean County... Little Egg Harbor Twp 13.2 in 0400 PM 01/03 Public Barnegat Twp 10.1 in 0314 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Manahawkin 9.0 in 0620 PM 01/03 Public Tuckerton 8.5 in 0400 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 E Forked River 8.0 in 0800 PM 01/03 Public Beach Haven 7.0 in 0550 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Beach Haven 6.0 in 0200 PM 01/03 Public Forked River 6.0 in 0405 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Barnegat 5.8 in 0100 PM 01/03 Public Waretown 5.5 in 0230 PM 01/03 Public 1 SSE Stafford Twp. 5.0 in 1230 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Bayville 4.0 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Manchester Twp 3.9 in 0400 PM 01/03 Public Toms River 2.0 in 0254 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Brick 1.8 in 0400 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter 1 N Toms River 1.0 in 0401 PM 01/03 Public Lakewood Twp 0.5 in 0153 PM 01/03 Public Jackson 0.3 in 0300 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Chester County... Glenmoore T in 0236 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter Exton T in 0319 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter ...Philadelphia County... Philadelphia International A 1.0 in 0700 PM 01/03 ASOS &&

Atlantic City picked up 13.0” of snow while both Newark and New York City received none. That surpassed the old record of February 24, 1989 when Atlantic City was buried by 12.3" of snow while Newark and NYC received none

Yes. That’s correct.

A snowstorm passed south of much of the region today. In New York City and Newark and northward, the clouds hung low and the wind picked up. But the dry air aloft squelched any falling snowflakes before they reached the ground. A spectacular sunset ended the daylight hours as the sun moved west of the retreating cloud deck before it slipped below the horizon. Meanwhile, southern New Jersey southward to central Virginia picked up a moderate to significant snowfall. In Atlantic City, Baltimore, and Washington, DC, visibility was reduced to a quarter mile or less at times. Some locations in Maryland and Virginia experienced thunder that accompanied the heavily falling snow. Snowfall amounts through 4 pm included: Atlantic City: 9.5" (old record: 2.8", 2014)--through 1 pm Baltimore: 6.8" (old record: 1.6", 1988) Islip: Trace Philadelphia: 0.5" Richmond: 2.0" Sterling: VA: 3.9" (old record: 0.9", 1989) Washington, DC: 6.7" (old record: 2.4", 1988) The last time Washington, DC picked up 6" or more snow while not even a trace was recorded in Central Park or Newark was March 16-17, 2014 when Washington received 7.2" of snow. The last time Atlantic City received 10" or more snow, as appears extremely likely given the amount at 1 pm, while no snow was reported in New York City or Newark was February 24, 1989 when Atlantic City was buried by 12.3" of snow. The snowstorm also set a record for highest snowfall the day after a 60° or above high temperature in Atlantic City. The previous record of 8.1" was set on February 17, 1967 following a 60° high temperature on the preceding day. In the wake of the storm, it will be sunny, blustery and cold. The high temperature will rise no higher than the middle or upper 30s across most of the region. Milder air will return on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. January has commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather will occur. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal. Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase throughout the region. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive. Temperatures are now on a general path toward below seasonal figures. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada through this week. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Arctic air could reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +1.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.484 today. On January 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.064 (RMM). The December 31-adjusted amplitude was 2.042 (RMM).

Select snowfall totals through 1 pm EST: Baltimore: 6.8" (old record: 1.6", 1988) Washington, DC: 6.7" (old record: 2.4", 1988) The snowfall was also Washington, DC's highest daily snowfall following a day on which the temperature reached 63° or above. The old record was 5.7", which fell on February 17, 1967.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/

I'm glad everyone is ok. Be careful.

LWX1/3 9:00 AM AUGUSTA4 WSW STAUNTON VA SNOW 9.3 LWX1/3 10:20 AM AUGUSTA1 S WAYNESBORO VA SNOW 9.0

Thundersnow is occurring in Virginia. We have only dense and dreary overcast in southern Westchester County.

For reference: Select Daily Snowfall Records for January 3: Annapolis: 3.0", 1905 Baltimore: 1.6", 1988 Richmond: 7.7", 2002 Salisbury: 3.0", 2002 Sterling: 0.9", 1989 Washington, DC: 2.4", 1988 Miscellaneous: Washington, DC will likely see among its highest snowfall amounts the day following a high temperature of 63° or above (yesterday's high temperature). The five biggest such snowfalls are: 1. 5.7", February 17, 1967 2. 4.0", March 21, 1943 3. 3.3", March 16, 2014 4. 2.5", February 11, 1955 5. 1.9", March 24, 1990 The January mark is 1.5", which was set on January 20, 1915.

U.S. Capitol Camera: https://www.senate.gov/general/capcam.htm Kennedy Center Camera: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/dc/?cam=dc_kennedycenter

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cold today A storm passing to the south will bring a moderate to significant snowfall from Richmond to central New Jersey. Light snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and nearby suburbs. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 33° Snowfall estimates include: Atlantic City: 5"-10" Baltimore: 3"-6" Islip: 1"-2" New York City-JFK: 1”-2” New York City-LGA: 0.5” or less New York City-NYC: 0.5" or less Newark: 0.5" or less Norfolk: 1" or less Philadelphia: 2"-4" Richmond: 3"-6" Salisbury: 4"-8" Washington, DC: 4"-8" Wilmington, DE: 3"-6"

Thank you, RJAY.

I will do so. Thanks.

Yes. I think the storage capacity drops when the subscription expires.

Thank you, RodneyS. Great job. Many thanks to @Roger Smith for running this fun contest.

The 500 mb pattern is fairly similar to that of January 22, 1954, along with similar teleconnections (AO-, NAO+, PNA+). The January 22-23, 1954 storm brought 6.4" to Washington, DC, but just 0.3" to Philadelphia and no snow to New York City. I don't think the gradient will be quite that sharp this time around, e.g., I think Philadelphia will see 2"-4", Central Park 0.5" or less and the JFK/southern Brooklyn, and Staten Island could see 0.5" to perhaps an inch.

I suspect you'll see 1"-2".

Noticeably colder air is now overspreading the region. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy, breezy, and cold. A snowstorm passing to the south could bring a period of light snow. Farther south, a moderate to significant snowfall is possible in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Snowfall estimates include: Atlantic City: 5"-10" Baltimore: 3"-6" Islip: 1"-2" New York City: 0.5" or less Newark: 0.5" or less Norfolk: 1" or less Philadelphia: 2"-4" Richmond: 3"-6" Salisbury: 5"-10" Washington, DC: 4"-8" Wilmington, DE: 3"-6" Washington, DC will likely see among its highest snowfall amounts the day following a high temperature of 63° or above (today's high temperature). The five biggest such snowfalls are: 1. 5.7", February 17, 1967 2. 4.0", March 21, 1943 3. 3.3", March 16, 2014 4. 2.5", February 11, 1955 5. 1.9", March 24, 1990 The January mark is 1.5", which was set on January 20, 1915. Should Washington, DC receive measurable snow prior to the end of today, the coming storm would mark the first time on record that January saw measurable snowfall both on the day of a 60° or above high temperature and the day after, and only the 3rd time on record. This would also be the first case when the temperature reached 63° or above. January has commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather will occur. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal. Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive. The latest guidance continues to suggest that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Modified Arctic air could reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -2.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.484 today. On December 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.044 (RMM). The December 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.887 (RMM).