donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with some showers today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 52° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.8° Newark: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 43.8° 2021 will conclude on a mild note and 2022 will begin with unseasonable warmth.

It’s an amazing and disconcerting development.

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. The remaining days of the month will be generally warmer than normal. New Year's Day could be unseasonably mild. In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included: Atlanta: 74° (old record: 72°, 1984) Baton Rouge: 83° (old record: 79°, 1973, 1974, and 1984) Birmingham: 77° (old record: 75°, 1984) Charleston, SC: 80° (old record: 79°, 1984 and 2015) Galveston: 81° (old record: 75°, 1889) ***14th record-breaking or tying temperature of the month*** Houston: 84° (old record: 81°, 1984) Jackson: 83° (old record: 79°, 1984 and 1990) Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1983) ***Tied December Record*** Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1971 and 1974) New Orleans: 81° (tied record set in 1974) Pensacola: 81° (tied record set in 1974) Wilmington, NC: 80° (tied record set in 1984) In addition, Houston recorded its 16th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. Houston also recorded its 6th consecutive 80° day, which broke the December record of 5 consecutive days. The old record was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston is on track to finish with a monthly mean temperature near 67.8°. That would demolish the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It would also be high enough to tie 1909 as the 3rd warmest November on record. January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. Afterward, the cold could try to press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +12.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.556 today. On December 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.565 (RMM). The December 26-adjusted amplitude was 2.183 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.6° (4.5° above normal). That would tie 2021 with 2006 as the 4th warmest December on record.

Fun fact from Galveston. With 7 80-degree days this month, 2021 has more such days (7) than the combined December 1874-2020 total (4).

Some flowers are already blooming. Forsythia are in bloom in many areas. Some violets and lilac are also in bloom.

Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy with some periods of light rain today. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 52° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0° Newark: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.9°; 15-Year: 43.9° The remainder of December will see above normal temperatures. New Year’s Day looks unseasonably warm.

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. The remaining days of the month will be generally warmer than normal. New Year's Day could be unseasonably mild. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, has continued to occur in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Daily record low temperatures included: Edmonton: -31° (old record: -28°, 1996 Medicine Hat, AB: -35° (old record: -13°, 2017) Slave Lake, AB: -30° (old record: -23°, 2013) In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included: Atlanta: 75° (old record: 74°, 1971 and 1984) Birmingham: 76° (tied record from 1984) Corpus Christi, TX: 85° (old record: 84°, 1970) Galveston: 82° (old record: 76°, 2016) ***New December Record*** Wilmington, NC: 79° (old record: 76°, 1874, 1889, 1916, 1971, 2008, and 2015) In addition, Houston recorded its 15th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. Houston also recorded its 5th consecutive 80° day, which tied the December record that was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston is on track to finish with a monthly mean temperature near 67.6°. That would demolish the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It would also be high enough to rank as the 4th warmest November on record. January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. Afterward, the cold could try to press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. In the Midwest, Chicago picked up its first measurable snowfall of the season. The previous latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +25.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.893 today. On December 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.182 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.957 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.5° (4.4° above normal). That would rank 2021 as the 5th warmest December on record.

Chicago has now picked up its first measurable snowfall of the season. This is the latest such snowfall on record. The progression of the record latest first such snowfall is: 11/25/1884, 12/1/1890, 12/2/1904, 12/5/1909, 12/7/1914, 12/12/1946, 12/16/1965, 12/20/2012, and 12/28/2021.

Morning thoughts… Early sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. Light rain and mixed precipitation could develop during the evening or night. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2° Newark: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.1°; 15-Year: 44.1° The remainder of December will see above normal temperatures. In the Midwest, Chicago could pick up its first measurable snowfall of winter 2021-22 today.

Edson only goes back to 1996.

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. Following today's seasonal chill, the remaining days of the month will be generally warmer than normal. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, has continued to occur in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Daily record low temperatures included: Banff, AB: -34° (old record: -18°, 1996) Bellingham, WA: 7° (tied record set in 1968) Edmonton: -27° (old record: -20°, 1996) Edson, AB: -45° (old record: -12°, 2012) Grande Prairie, AB: -48° (old record: -46°, 1984) Jasper, AB: -39° (old record: -34°, 1995) Medicine Hat, AB: -30° (old record: -18°, 2017) Pitcher Creek, AB: -32° (old record: -10°, 2012) Red Deer, AB: -35° (old record: -28°, 1965) Seattle: 17° (old record: -20°, 1968) ***Coldest since November 24, 2010*** Vancouver: 4° (old record: 9°, 1971) ***Coldest since January 29, 1969*** In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Records included: Abilene, TX: 78° (old record: 77°, 2005) College Station, TX: 81° (old record: 80°, 1889) Midland, TX: 79° (old record: 75°, 1964, 1970, and 1996) In addition, Houston recorded its 14th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. Houston is on track to finish with a monthly mean temperature near 67.5°. That would demolish the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It would also be high enough to rank as the 5th warmest November on record. January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. Afterward, the cold could try to press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. In the Midwest, through 4 pm CST today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +27.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.033 today. On December 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.956 (RMM). The December 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.131 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.5° (4.4° above normal). That would rank 2021 as the 5th warmest December on record.

It was an extraordinary event.

Historic December warmth in Alaska: https://twitter.com/NWSAlaska/status/1475566727127654400?s=20

Today’s high temperature at Fairbanks is 40. The old record of 38 was set in 1909.

There are snow flurries in Larchmont, NY.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56480-january-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6232547

There was a question about the longest the MJO stayed in the same phase. The record is 28 days when the MJO was in Phase 2 from August 6 through September 2, 2008.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cold. Light snow or sleet will move into the region this afternoon before transitioning to light rain or freezing rain well north and west of New York City. A small accumulation of sleet and snow is possible in places. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 42° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41,5°; 15-Year: 42.4° Newark: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 43.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.3°; 15-Year: 44.3° The remainder of December will see above normal temperatures.

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. Although tomorrow will be cloudy and cold with readings remaining mainly in the 30s across the region, the remaining days of the month will be generally warmer than normal. A few locations could pick up some light frozen precipitation tomorrow. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. Daily record low temperatures included: Dease Lake, BC: -44° (old record: -29°, 2012) Fort Nelson, BC: -41° (old record: -40°, 1961) Fort St. John, BC: -31° (tied record set in 1961) Prince George, BC: -40° (old recorfd: -36°, 1971) Prince Rupert, BC: 2° (old record: 23°, 2012) Quesnel, BC: -30° (old record: -10°, 2008) Watson Lake, YT: -55° (old record: -42°, 2008) Rabbit Kettle, NT recorded a low temperature of -60°. In the South, more record heat prevailed. Records included: Abilene, TX: 90° (old record: 81°, 2005) ***New December record*** Athens, GA: 77° (tied record set in 2015) Birmingham: 76° (old record: 74°, 2016) Charlotte: 77° (old record: 76°, 1889) Columbia, SC: 78° (old record: 77°, 1964) Dodge City, KS: 75° (old record: 71°, 2015) Galveston: 79° (old record: 78°, 2016) Mobile: 78° (tied record set in 1964) Wichita Falls, TX: 88° (old record: 81°, 2005) Wilmington, NC: 79° (old record: 78°, 1964) In addition, Houston recorded its 13th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. Houston is on track to finish with a monthly mean temperature near 67.5°. That would demolish the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It would also be high enough to rank as the 5th warmest November on record. January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then periodically below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. The cooler pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. In the Midwest, through 4 pm CST today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +46.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.517 today. On December 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.127 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.297 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.4° (4.3° above normal). That would rank 2021 as the 5th warmest December on record.

Forsythia are in partial bloom across a large part of the area.

I’m continuing to think that January 1-10 will average cooler (near or somewhat below normal) but not very cold. Snowfall events will probably be small.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and still mild. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 54° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 42.6° Newark: 30-Year: 42.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.5°; 15-Year: 44.5° Tomorrow will be a brisk day, but the remainder of December will see generally above normal temperatures.

No. I hope he’s ok.

I think the only thing that can be drawn from then is that the SOI may have pointed to Pacific-related developments that suggest a cooler period will be forthcoming as is currently shown on some of the guidance. Depending on the exact evolution of things, there might be some opportunities for snowfall.

A very warm December is now nearing its conclusion. The remaining days of the month will be generally mild with only some modestly cooler days. It will be a different story in the Pacific Northwest where Vancouver picked up 2.7" (6.9 cm) of snow yesterday. Near record to record cold, along with snowfall, is possible during the closing days of December in such cities as Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. Already, Dease Lake, BC set a daily record low temperature with a reading of -40° (old record: -28°, 2012). In the South, numerous record high temperatures were toppled. Records included: Asheville, NC: 71° (old record: 67°, 1904, 1944, 1955, and 2015) Dallas-Fort Worth: 82° (old record: 80°, 2016) Evansville, IN: 72° (old record: 68°, 1982 and 2019) Galveston: 80° (old record: 76°, 2015 and 2016) Jonesboro, AR: 75° (old record: 72°, 1922 and 1942) Lexington, KY: 70° (tied record set in 1982) Little Rock: 78° (old record: 73°, 1942) Louisville: 75° (old record: 69°, 2019) Paducah, KY: 74° (old record: 71°, 2016) Pine Bluff, AR: 80° (old record: 77°, 1922) Roanoke, VA: 69° (old record: 68°, 1964 and 1982) In addition, Houston recorded its 12th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. January will likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then periodically below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada. No severe cold is likely through at least the first week of January. There are some hints that a milder pattern could begin to develop around mid-January. In the Midwest, through 4 pm CST today, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall. The old record latest first measurable snowfall was December 20, 2012. Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +46.34 today. That is the highest value since January 15, 2014 when the SOI was at +50.17). Four days ago, the SOI's -27.14 value was the lowest value since June 20, 2020. The SOI's 4-day change of 73.48 is the second largest on record. Only the December 4-8, 1998 timeframe saw a larger increase when the SOI rose from -26.83 to +51.02, a change of +77.85. About two weeks later, a 19-day period of mainly below normal temperatures developed. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.420 today. On December 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.294 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.514 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.2° (4.1° above normal). That would rank 2021 as the 6th warmest December on record.