donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… Rain will develop and it could fall moderately to perhaps heavily this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.7° Newark: 30-Year: 59.1°; 15-Year: 59.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.9°

Drizzle is likely overnight before additional steady rain arrives tomorrow. The rain could fall moderately to heavily at times tomorrow afternoon. A shower or two is possible on Friday. Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days. It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +31.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.640 today. On April 4 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.343 (RMM). The April 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.356 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with rain. Most of the rain will fall during the morning hours. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.3° Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.5°

Rain and showers will continue overnight. Some of the rain tomorrow morning could be heavy. Overall, rain and showers and could linger through at least Thursday even as there will likely be a break tomorrow. Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days. It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +25.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.690 today. On April 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.372 (RMM). The April 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.331 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy. Rain will arrive late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 57° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.5°; 15-Year: 57.9° Newark: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.1°

Rain and showers will return late tomorrow and could linger through at least Thursday. Overall, the week will see mainly near normal temperatures. Late in the second week of the month, there are some hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could try to move into the region. It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +14.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.360 today. On April 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.496 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.667 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny with readings near or just below seasonable levels. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 57° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.0°; 15-Year: 57.5° Newark: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.7°

It was covered. This reality may not have reached a sufficiently broad audience: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114272

Dry conditions with near normal temperatures will return on tomorrow. However, the dry conditions will be short-lived. Rain and showers will return Tuesday and could linger through at least Thursday. Overall, the week will see mainly near normal temperatures. Late in the second week of the month, there are some hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could try to move into the region. It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +4.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.457 today. On April 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.686 (RMM). The March 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.772 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will become partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of light rain. Parts of northwest New Jersey and adjacent Pennsylvania and New York State could see some early snow. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 58° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 57.5° Newark: 30-Year: 57.4°; 15-Year: 58.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.7°; 15-Year: 60.3°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be somewhat cooler than normal. Dry conditions with near normal temperatures will return on Monday. Nevertheless, it is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was -3.39 today. The SOI fell 20.48 points over the past day. The last time that happened was October 22-23, 2021 when the SOI fell 28.43 points. The last time the SOI fell by 20 or more points in a 24-hour span in April was April 13-14, 2018. El Niño conditions developed the following winter. It's premature to make any ENSO forecasts for next winter given that we're in spring and such forecasts from this far out lack skill. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.928 today. On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.779 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.647 (RMM).

Temperatures rose into the 50s at the New York Botanical Garden where daffodils are blooming in increasing numbers.

Morning thoughts… It will become partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 55° Showers and periods of rain are likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 57.1° Newark: 30-Year: 57.0°; 15-Year: 57.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.2°; 15-Year: 59.9°

It will be partly sunny and cooler tomorrow. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be somewhat cooler than normal. Nevertheless, it is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +17.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.325 today. On March 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.650 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.665 (RMM).

We’ve already seen some early hints of drought-heat feedback in the Southwest. More heat—possibly record-challenging heat—could develop there next week.

Morning thoughts... Clouds and light rain will slowly yield to clearing. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 58° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 59° A cooler weekend lies ahead. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.3° Newark: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 57.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.8°; 15-Year: 59.5° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 52.9° Average temperature: 53.3° Average error: 1.9° Newark: Average daily forecast: 54.2° Average temperature: 54.3° Average error: 1.8° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 57.5° Average temperature: 57.1° Average error: 1.8°

A warmer than normal March is now concluding. Despite an exceptional cold shot that was among the most significant cold shots this late in the season in nearly 40 years, March saw the temperature in Central Park average 45.3° or 2.5° above normal. A line of strong thunderstorms was pressing eastward at 10 pm. Parts of the area will likely experience a severe thunderstorm with damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours. Tomorrow will see any early clouds give way to partly sunny skies. It will be somewhat cooler. It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat above normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +6.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.562 today. On March 29 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.596 (RMM).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.7 0.6 -0.9 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 -2.0

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are likely, especially this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 70° Somewhat cooler air will return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.3°; 15-Year: 55.9° Newark: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 57.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.4°; 15-Year: 59.1°

Tomorrow will be warm with highs well into the 60s despite some rain, showers, and perhaps thunderstorms. It will turn somewhat cooler for the weekend. Today may well have been the last time this year the temperature fell below 30° in New York City until next winter. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +1.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.355 today. On March 28 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.596 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.308 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

On March 27th, the range was 21-12. On April 7, 1982, the range was 22-8.

Morning thoughts… Today was the 4th consecutive day that the temperature fell below 30° in New York City after March 26th and just the 7th time on record. 4 of those cases occurred prior to 1900 and the most recent case was April 5-8, 1982. After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 52° The warmup will continue through tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 55.5° Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.0°; 15-Year: 58.7°

After another cool start, tomorrow will turn noticeably milder with readings reaching the middle and perhaps upper 40s despite the presence of a lot of clouds. Thursday will be warm with highs well into the 60s despite some rain, showers, and perhaps thunderstorms. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +3.49 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.095 today. On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.311 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.108 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

Throughout Putin’s tenure, no Western leader or set of leaders tried to constrain him. Despite a dramatic turn in rhetoric against the U.S. and West during the mid-2000s, he was viewed by every President from Bush to Trump as someone with whom one could do business. But such an assumption required Putin’s commitment to rules and norms. By 2008 and, most definitely 2014, that assumption lay in ruins, but driven by hope and intellectual inertia, the policy approach remained essentially unchanged or worse. The 2018 Helsinki Summit was a foreign policy catastrophe. That may have been the moment Putin concluded that the U.S. was unwilling and unable to take measures to check his ambitions. The possibility of deterrence was lost and Putin’s ambitions were scaled up. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 likely further reinforced Putin’s conclusions. The end result is Putin’s attempted ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Savage is not a credible source on Russia or history. He is not a Russia expert, former diplomat, or historian. Russia's history has long been defined by conquests. Indeed, in his seminal work during Russia's Crimean War, Ivan Golovin wrote of Russia, "The history of Russia is the history of its conquests... [O]ffering only a military despotism--the Russian Government is not easy in a state of peace." Golovin continued, "Russia represents a principle, despotism, and she will defend herself against liberty by stifling it in birth." Russia under Vladimir Putin is frozen in the 19th century. Its worldview is stuck in a dangerous combination of imperial ambitions and pathological insecurity. President Putin saw Ukraine's shift to the West, something Russia rejects, and efforts to build a vibrant democracy as posing a mortal threat to its political model. Despotism and democracy are incompatible. Putin chose to try to suffocate Ukraine's nascent democracy. At the same time, Putin seeks to rebuild a Russian empire. He has taken a growing number of increasingly aggressive risks to do so. President Zelensky was nowhere on the political scene when Putin invaded parts of Georgia in 2008. President Zelensky was not on the political scene when Russia invaded parts of Ukraine in 2014 leading to its illegitimate annexation of Crimea. Putin, like despots before him, has an ambition that goes far beyond what the limits of international principles--including long-established principles pertaining to state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-aggression--permit. Again, Golovin nailed the dynamic that is present in explaining, "[T]here are no limits to a despot's ambition." Garry Kasparov wrote of Vladimir Putin in his fairly prescient Winter is Coming: Like most dictators, Putin has good animal instincts when it comes to evaluating his rivals, and he knew he would face no real opposition from other world leaders. And, also like all dictators, Putin grew bolder with every successful step. Dictators do not ask why before they take more power; they only ask why not. That is who Putin is. That is why he has pushed ahead with his latest war. Russia's floundering but destructive invasion of Ukraine has little to do with President Zelensky's alleged provocations. It has everything to do with Putin's longstanding designs. Indeed, on February 26th, Kremlin-friendly RIA Novosti accidentally published and then withdrew an essay prematurely celebrating a rapid Russian victory that ultimately did not occur. That essay read, in part: A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era... Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians... Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. The U.S., Europe, and any nation that legitimately stands for a rules-based international order against the chaotic alternative where exercises of brute force regularly write and rewrite the rules in their bloody and brutal aftermath, should support Ukraine. Any nation that credibly claims to embrace democratic governance should stand by Ukraine. To again borrow from Golovin who nailed the character and nature of Tsarist Russia, of which Putin's Russia has become a 21st century extension, "If liberty... does not destroy despotism, despotism will destroy it." That's what is actually at stake. Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, and Ukraine in 2022 are the symptoms of this growing battle between the despotism of Putin's Russia and democracy. If Russia again succeeds, even if by merely being permitted to retain part of its territorial gains from the current war it launched, it almost certainly will look for additional opportunities, both to expand and to undermine democratic governance along its borders. An ever insecure, increasingly ambitious, and aging President Putin, could become even more aggressive in pushing his ambitions in pursuit of building the historical legacy he seeks. The pressure of his biological clock could lead him to pursue dangerous, if not catastrophic short cuts to try to realize that legacy.