donsutherland1

I suspect we’ll see more NAO+ winters, but am more uncertain about ENSO. The world remains on course to badly miss its 2030 goal. The ongoing war could accelerate the transition in Europe and the U.S., especially if fossil fuel prices remain high.

No blocking and a really fast jet stream.

Tomorrow will start mild. Rain, some of which could be heavy, and high winds are likely. Temperatures will fall sharply during the morning. Rain will change to a period of accumulating snow, with the highest amounts north and west of Newark and New York City. The snow could be briefly heavy. Snowfall estimates: Allentown: 3"-6" Baltimore: 1"-3" Boston: 1" or less Bridgeport: 1" or less Islip: 1" or less New York City: 1"-3" Newark: 1"-3" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Poughkeepsie: 4"-8" Washington, DC: 1"-3" White Plains: 2"-4" Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +8.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today. On March 9 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.061 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.741 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal).

Here it is:

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° A strong storm will be followed by a brief but sharp cold shot during the weekend. A period of accumulating snow is likely north and west of New York City and Newark. A minor accumulation is possible in both cities. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 48.1°; 15-Year: 48.7° Newark: 30-Year: 49.1°; 15-Year: 49.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.9°; 15-Year: 51.3°

2 consecutive monthly record low temperatures is impressive.

Milder air returned to the region following yesterday's snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Tomorrow will be another mild day. Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow. Saturday will also be mild with the potential for rain and high winds. Temperatures could fall sharply later in the day with rain changing to a period of accumulating snow in northern and western sections of the region. There remains some possibility that minor accumulations could reach the coastline. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.085 today. On March 8 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.743 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.471 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.6° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 54° A strong storm will be followed by a brief but sharp cold shot during the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.8°; 15-Year: 48.4° Newark: 30-Year: 48.8°; 15-Year: 49.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.6°; 15-Year: 51.0°

Very creative. It’s amazing how much burst into bloom in recent days.

From the New York Botanical Garden:

Milder conditions will follow in the wake of a storm that brought snow to parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region today. Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow and Friday. Saturday will also be mild with the potential for rain and high winds. Temperatures could fall sharply later in the day with rain changing to a period of accumulating snow in northern and western sections of the region. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +12.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today. On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.468 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.333 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.6° above normal).

0.2"

In the latest PNS, Central Park reported a trace of snow. Yet, the ground is actually whitened as per the camera at Columbus Circle. Were a proper measurement taken on a snow board, one would be dealing with a few tenths of an inch of snow, not a trace. Here's a very recent image from Columbus Circle:

The persistence in the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies is likely an important factor.

No. The NAO will likely stay positive.

Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy. A cold rain and/or wet snow is likely in much of the region. Well north and west of New York City, there could be a 1”-3” snowfall. Elsewhere, 1” or less is likely in the vicinity of New York City and Newark. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 39° Philadelphia: 43° Following the storm, tomorrow and Friday will be milder days. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.5°; 15-Year: 48.1° Newark: 30-Year: 48.5°; 15-Year: 49.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.6°

Overnight and tomorrow, a storm will bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region tomorrow. Interior sections of southeastern New York across central New England will likely see 1"-3" of snow with some pockets of 3"-6" amounts. Snowfall estimates include: Boston: 1"-3" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Hartford: 1"-3" Islip: 1" or less New York City: 1" or less Newark: 1" or less Philadelphia: 0.5" or less White Plains: 1"-3" Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today. On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.327 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.160 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal).

NWS snowfall forecast:

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and noticeably cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 51° A storm could bring a cold rain and wet snow tomorrow. Some accumulations are possible, especially on grassy surfaces. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.2°; 15-Year: 47.7° Newark: 30-Year: 48.3°; 15-Year: 49.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.3°

Ahead of an advancing cold front, temperatures soared to record levels in parts of the region away from the coastline. Daily records included: Allentown: 73° (old record: 70°, 1974, 1987, and 2009) Atlantic City: 76° (old record: 75°, 1974) Baltimore: 79° (old record: 76°, 1974) Georgetown, DE: 79° (old record: 75°, 1961) New York City-LGA: 74° (old record: 69°, 1987 and 2009) New York City-NYC: 74° (tied record set in 1946) Newark: 76° (old record: 75°, 1946) Philadelphia: 77° (old record: 74°, 1974) Salisbury: 79° (old record: 75°, 1974) Sterling, VA: 77° (old record: 76°, 1974) Trenton: 74° (old record: 72°, 1946 and 2009) Washington, DC: 80° (old record: 77°, 1961) Wilmington, DE: 78° (old record: 73°, 2009) In the New York City area, JFK Airport registered a high temperature of 59°. The last time JFK had a maximum temperature that was at least 15° colder than the Central Park high temperature was March 15, 2019. On that date, JFK record a high of 59° while Central Park saw the temperature top out at 75°. The record such spread in March is 22°. That mark was set on March 15, 1990, when the mercury reached 77° in Central Park but only 55° at JFK. In the wake of the cold front, readings will turn cooler. There is a growing risk that a storm could bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region on Wednesday. Some accumulations are possible especially on grassy surfaces. Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.004 today. On March 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.208 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.068 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.0° (2.2° above normal).

EWR has reached as high as 76 so far.

It was 62, which just missed the record of 63 from 2004.

Probably not. Mid-60s is more likely.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and very warm today Showers and perhaps a thundershower are likely during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region and upper 70s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 78° Cooler air will return for tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.4° Newark: 30-Year: 48.0°; 15-Year: 48.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.6°; 15-Year: 49.9°

On this date in 1941, a blizzard dumped 15.7" of snow on New York City. This time around readings soared to record-tying and record breaking highs. Daily records included: Albany: 64° (old record: 63°, 1974) Atlantic City: 71° (old record: 68°, 1959 and 2004) Baltimore: 78° (old record: 76°, 1935) Hartford: 64° (tied record set in 1935) New York City-LGA: 68° (old record: 64°, 1976) New York City-NYC: 68° (tied record set in 1935) Newark: 69° (tied record set in 1935) Poughkeepsie: 67° (old record: 63°, 1935) Sterling, VA: 78° (old record: 70°, 2004) Wilmington, DE: 71° (tied record set in 1935) Tomorrow will be another exceptionally warm day. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Baltimore and Washington, DC could reach or exceed 80°. There could be some showers or thundershowers as a cold front moves across the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain mainly above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, a colder pattern could develop. The duration of such a pattern remains somewhat uncertain. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +22.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.031 today. On March 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.069 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.161 (RMM).