donsutherland1

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 5 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +3.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.002 today. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.985 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.685 (RMM).

The low at JFK was 36.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 57° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.3° Newark: 30-Year: 58.4°; 15-Year: 58.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.4°; 15-Year: 59.3° Warmer air will begin to overspread the region tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be another fair but cool day. Afterward, a warming trend will commence. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 5 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +5.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.636 today. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.687 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.431 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 54° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 57.6° Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 59.7° Warmer weather will develop on Sunday and continue into next week.

An unseasonably cool air mass remains in place. As a result, temperatures will run well below normal through the rest of the week. Dry weather will also persist. A warming trend will commence on Sunday. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframew where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +12.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.109 today. On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.474 (RMM).

No.

Morning thoughts… Yesterday, Binghamton picked up its first measurable snowfall of the season with 0.1” of snow. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 52° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.0° Newark: 30-Year: 59.1°; 15-Year: 59.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.1° Mainly fair and cool weather will continue through the week.

Probably the second half of November.

An unseasonably cool air mass now covers the region.tomorrow morning will likely be the coldest morning so far in much of the region. Even Central Park will likely see the temperature dip below 40° for the first time this season. Temperatures will run well below normal through the rest of the week. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week. Mount Pocono recorded its latest first freeze on record yesterday. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920. The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +11.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.422 today. On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.480 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.610 (RMM).

Probably not. The temperature there will probably be a bit too high.

It’s defined as a “few” hours at or below 28. MPO had a hard freeze.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 51° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.2°; 15-Year: 58.3° Newark: 30-Year: 59.5°; 15-Year: 59.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 60.4° Mainly fair and cool weather will continue through the week.

Yes. Tonight or tomorrow night could see the first upper 30s there. MPO also recorded its first freeze yesterday. The old record latest first freeze was November 1, 1920.

The coldest weather so far this season is now overspreading the region. By the end of the week, much of the region outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely have seen one or more freezes and New York City's Central Park could see at least one sub-50° high temperature. Overall, mainly dry conditions should prevail through the rest of the week. Mount Pocono had no freeze through November 1, which assures that 2021 will record the latest first freeze on record there, either this evening or tomorrow morning. The prior record late first freeze occurred on November 1, 1920. The cool weather won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 2 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +5.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.532 today. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.624 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.796 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Some widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50 in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 52° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.6°; 15-Year: 58.7° Newark: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 60.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 60.8° Mainly fair and even cooler weather will continue through the week.

Their frustration is reasonable. Politicians ignore their interests and treat their interests as being expendable.

Yes. It should be MPO’s latest first freeze. Allentown’s low was 36. That’s why it didn’t appear on the list.

The U.S. Government is highly dysfunctional. One Party has gone off the illiberal and anti-science deep end. A handful of opportunists in the Democratic Party act in bad faith, even if it helps undermine the national interest and brings political paralysis (and Republican gains). Joe Mancin’s word cannot be relied on. He will only support the bipartisan infrastructure bill, but not the reconciliation bill, unless he has no other choice. He strings along the President and his Party when, in fact, he has no intention of supporting the reconciliation bill. Its climate provisions, not its cost, is likely behind his intransigence.

The weather will continue to turn noticeably cooler as the week progresses. Tomorrow will be among the coolest days so far this fall. The cool weather likely won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 1 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -1.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.666 today. On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.861 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.981 (RMM).

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and cooler. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 61° Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.9°; 15-Year: 59.0° Newark: 30-Year: 60.2°; 15-Year: 60.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.2° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 67.3° Average temperature: 67.8° Average error: 1.3° Newark: Average daily forecast: 71.8° Average temperature: 72.4° Average error: 1.3° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 71.4° Average temperature: 71.6° Average error: 1.5°

New Haven and Newark are concluding their warmest October on record.

An unseasonably warm October is concluding with an unseasonably warm Halloween Day. October will finish with a mean temperature of 62.0° (4.1° above normal) in New York City. Numerous locations in the region saw their warmest monthly minimum temperature on record for November. Those locations included: Atlantic City: 41° (old record: 40°, 2004) Bangor: 35° (old record: 34°, 1968 and 1989) Bridgeport: 43° (old record: 41°, 2004) Harrisburg: 43° (tied record set in 1984) Islip: 42° (old record: 40°, 1971 and 2017) Mount Pocono, PA: 35° (old record: 34°, 1920) New Haven: 42° (old record: 39°, 2014) New York City-JFK: 47° (old record: 46°, 1971) New York City-LGA: 49° (old record: 47°, 1971) New York City-NYC: 47° (old record: 45°, 1946 and 1971) Newark: 45° (tied record set in 1971) Philadelphia: 46° (old record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931) Providence: 41° (old record: 39°, 1971) Scranton: 38° (old record: 36°, 1971) Sterling, VA: 39° (old record: 37°, 1971) Syracuse: 36° (tied record set in 1971) Washington, DC: 47° (old record: 46°, 1971 and 1984) Wilmington, DE: 43° (old record: 41°, 1971) It will turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the first week of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain. There is an increasing probability that a warming trend could commence during the second week of November. Overall, November will more likely than not average somewhat below normal to near normal in much of the region. The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. The latest guidance suggests that a period of cooler than normal weather could develop during the first week of November. The big issue concerns the duration of the cooler weather. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The October 1-25 North American temperature anomalies most closely resemble those for the Cluster 1 October composite anomalies. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast favors the Cluster 2 scenario. As a result, even as La Niña climatology would favor a cool November, more than La Niña is involved. The impact of the rare teleconnections combination suggests the possibility that the month could wind up on the warm side of normal. The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. For now, this is more theoretical in nature, but it is a plausible scenario. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through October 31 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -1.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.752 today. On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.983 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.879 (RMM).

Bright sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and temperatures in the 60s made for anything but a frightening Halloween, at least as far as the weather is concerned.

____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.2