donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… Today could be a near carbon copy of yesterday. It will be mostly cloudy and mild. There could be some fog and also some showers. Most of the day will be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 73° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 71.8° Newark: 30-Year: 72.1°; 15-Year: 73.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 74.5°

The New York City area saw mainly cloudy conditions with a few breaks in the clouds. Temperatures reached the lower 70s. Yet again, record high temperatures fell from the Midwest to Canada. Records included: Buffalo: 85° (tied record set in 2004 and tied in 2011 and 2014) Burlington: 88° (old record: 84°, 1985) Caribou: 90° (old record: 78°, 1992) ***2nd earliest 90° temperature*** Chicago: 89° (tied record set in 1956 and tied in 1991) Fredericton, NB: 85° (old record: 81°, 1969) La Tuque, QC: 91° (old record: 88°, 1977) Madison: 92° (old record: 88°, 1977) ***Earliest 4-day heatwave by 16 days*** Manchester, NH: 88° (old record: 84°, 2012) Moline, IL: 94° (old record: 91°, 1915) Montreal: 87° (old record: 83°, 1992) Ottawa: 86° (old record: 83°, 1985) Quebec City: 88° (old record: 74°, 1998) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 80° (old record: 69°, 1998) Rockford, IL: 92° (old record: 88°, 1940 and 1991) Sherbrooke, QC: 86° (old record: 70°, 2008) Trois-Rivières, QC: 88° (old record: 72°, 2016) Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with perhaps another shower or two. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Sunday will see more sunshine with readings rising into the middle and perhaps upper 70s. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +24.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.304 today. That surpassed the old daily record +2.708 from 1992. On May 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.364 (RMM). The May 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.048 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and mild. There could be some fog and also some showers. Most of the day will be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 75° The weekend could start with another mainly cloudy day, but partial sunshine is likely on Sunday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.7°; 15-Year: 71.6° Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 72.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.3°

Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures again rose into the 70s across much of the region. Record heat again prevailed from the Midwest into Canada. Records included: Bangor: 85° (old record: 83°, 1991) Burlington: 89° (old record: 84°, 2004) Caribou: 81° (old record: 78°, 1992) Eau Claire, WI: 94° (old record: 92°, 1900) Madison: 93° (old record: 86°, 1991) ***Earliest heatwave on record*** Moline, IL: 95° (old record: 94°, 1956) Montreal: 86° (old record: 81°, 1992) Ottawa: 85° (old record: 82°, 1992) Plattsburgh, NY: 85° (old record: 83°, 1956) Quebec City: 81° (old record: 76°, 2016) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 75° (old record: 70°, 2016) Rockford, IL: 93° (old record: 88°, 1896) Sherbrooke, QC: 86° (old record: 66°, 2006) St. Louis: 93° (old record: 92°, 1956) Syracuse: 85° (old record: 84°, 1985, 1993, and 2014) Trois-Rivières: 85° (old record: 71°, 2012) Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s on both days during the weekend. However, record-challenging or record-breaking temperatures will stay to the north and west of the region. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +32.80 today. That was a May record 3rd consecutive day with an SOI figure at or above +30.00. The old record was set during May 9-10, 2000 and tied during May 27-28, 2010 and May 16-17, 2013. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.313 today. That surpassed the old daily record +2.942 from 1992. On May 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.042 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.984 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

Weather Trivia: With Caribou reaching 80 degrees, 2022 has become the first year during which Chicago reached 90 degrees (5/11) and Caribou reached 80 degrees (5/12) before Central Park reported its first 80-degree temperature of the year.

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 72° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with the risk of a shower. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.5°; 15-Year: 71.3° Newark: 30-Year: 71.5°; 15-Year: 72.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.4°; 15-Year: 74.0°

Climate change will likely lead to some of those stresses on human society with geopolitical fallout. The continued existence of destabilizing geopolitical actors such as Russia will probably exacerbate those effects.

It's looking quite impressive at present. FYI, yesterday's SOI figure of +40.77 set a new May record.

Under partly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the 70s across much of the region. Across parts of the Midwest into Quebec, record temperatures were recorded. Records included: Chicago: 90° (old record: 89°, 1982) Indianapolis: 89° (tied record set in 1896) Madison: 91° (old record: 85°, 1922, 1991, and 2011) Milwaukee: 86° (tied record set in 1896 and tied in 1982 and 1987) Peoria, IL: 93° (old record: 91°, 2011) Quebec City: 81° (old record: 79°, 2005) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 73° (old record: 69°, 2005) Rockford, IL: 94° (old record: 91°, 2011) St. Louis: 94° (old record: 91°, 1914 and 2011) Trois-Rivières, QC: 80° (old record: 79°, 2001) Readings will generally rise into the 70s through the coming weekend. Coastal areas could be a bit cooler due to onshore breezes. However, record-challenging or record-breaking temperatures will stay to the north and west of the region. Northern New England, including Burlington, could see near record or record warmth tomorrow through Saturday. There, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 80s. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +39.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.105 today. That surpassed the previously daily record high of +2.797, which was set in 1992. On May 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.985 (RMM). The May 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.209 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 49% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 70° Tomorrow will be another mild day but there will be a lot more cloud cover. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.1° Newark: 30-Year: 71.3°; 15-Year: 72.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 73.7°

Right now, both areas look to be partly to mostly cloudy (perhaps somewhat less cloud cover in NE PA). But things can still change.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 70° Tomorrow will be another mild day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.0°; 15-Year: 70.8° Newark: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 71.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.8°; 15-Year: 73.4°

Readings will again rise into the 60s tomorrow and then mainly in the 70s through the remainder of the week. Northern New England, including Burlington, could ultimately see near record to record warm temperatures Thursday through Saturday. There, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 80s. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 3°-5° below normal with a few colder spots. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +34.57 today. That was the highest reading since December 26, 2021 when the SOI was +46.71. It was the highest May figure since May 16, 2013 when the SOI reached +35.64. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.265 today. On May 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.478 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.570 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 49% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and noticeably milder. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 68° Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.7°; 15-Year: 70.5° Newark: 30-Year: 70.7°; 15-Year: 71.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.2°

Today was another cool day. Many locations saw temperatures remain below 60° for another day. Out West, there was more heat. San Antonio reached 100° for the second consecutive day. Prior to 2022, the earliest two consecutive days with 100° temperatures occurred during May 11-12, 1967. The coldest weather of the month is now receding into the past. Readings will rise into the 60s tomorrow and then mainly in the 70s through the remainder of the week. Northern New England, including Burlington, could ultimately see near record to record warm temperatures Thursday through Saturday. There, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 80s. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 3°-5° below normal with a few colder spots. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +23.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.246 today. On May 6 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.573 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.351 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 49% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and continued cool from Philadelphia to New York City and eastward. Some drier air could work into the cities to allow for some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. Across northwestern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania, it will be a partly sunny day. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 55° The sun will return to the entire region tomorrow and temperatures will rise into the 60s. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.5°; 15-Year: 70.3° Newark: 30-Year: 70.5°; 15-Year: 71.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 72.9°

The high temperature in New York City's Central Park was 50°. That tied the same reading in 1874 for the 3rd coldest high temperature on record for May 7th. Out West, it was a completely different story. Denver reached a record high of 89°. At Amarillo, the temperature topped out at 101°, both smashing the longstanding record of 97° from 1916 and becoming that city's earliest 100° temperature on record. The prior mark was set on May 15, 1996. Phoenix also recorded its first 100° temperature of the year. Tomorrow will still be unseasonably cool, but perhaps slightly milder. Some sunshine is possible especially from New York City and westward. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 3°-5° below normal with a few colder spots. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +11.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.191 today. On May 5 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.352 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.092 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be rainy, windy, and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool, but a few degrees warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.2°; 15-Year: 70.0° Newark: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.0°; 15-Year: 72.6°

A coastal storm will bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region into early Sunday. A general 1.50"-2.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s tomorrow. Sunday will still be unseasonably cool, but perhaps slightly milder. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +11.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.275 today. On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.630 (RMM).

There may be one or two episodes of high heat, but again, the long-duration of warmer than normal temperatures with high humidity/high dewpoints will probably define the summer.

I had been including areas from Washington, DC to Albany. There is a general 2"-3" stripe with higher amounts that runs across much of PA eastward, including NYC and Newark. I should probably have been more precise.

Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy with showers and steadier rain developing. The temperature will fall during the morning. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s in much of the region before temperatures fall. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow and Sunday will be unseasonably cool days with additional rain. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 69.7° Newark: 30-Year: 69.9°; 15-Year: 70.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 72.3°

The latest brief taste of spring that saw temperatures rise into the 70s under bright sunshine today will be a fleeting memory. A coastal storm will bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region beginning tomorrow through Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s on Saturday. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end. Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +14.27 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.955 today. On May 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.625 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.194 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 72° Cooler air will begin to return tomorrow and showers and rain associated with a developing storm will arrive during the afternoon or evening. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.7°; 15-Year: 69.4° Newark: 30-Year: 69.6°; 15-Year: 70.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.5°; 15-Year: 72.0°

With the frontal boundary having pushed northward, tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Temperatures will rise into the 70s in much of the region before cooler air again returns. A coastal storm could bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region later Friday into Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s on Saturday. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end. Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +11.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.607 today. On May 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.194 (RMM). The May 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.319 (RMM).