donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° It will become somewhat cooler tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.6°; 15-Year: 47.1° Newark: 30-Year: 47.7°; 15-Year: 48.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.6°

3/6 0z EPS Members: Notes: 1. The operational ECMWF did not go wild at 0z for the first time in 3 0z runs 2. A focus on ensembles over the operational guidance is useful as uncertainty remains considerable 3. In the next 24-72 hours, the picture should be much clearer Below is an illustration of what things should look like when the ensembles lock in on a potential event. This chart is from the late February event that saw 1.8" fall at Central Park.

Milder weather returned today. Temperatures surged into the 50s across the region and approached 60° in southeastern Pennsylvania. Tomorrow will be another mild day A colder regime will develop starting later this week. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March. The operational ECMWF has been oscillating wildly on a run-to-run basis in terms of snowfall for the northern Mid-Atlantic region for the March 10-12 period: March 3 12z: New York City: 1"; Philadelphia: 0" March 4 0z: New York City: 12"; Philadelphia: 10" March 4 12z: New York City: 0"; Philadelphia: 0" March 5 0z: New York City: 24"; Philadelphia: 10" March 5 12z: New York City: 4"; Philadelphia: 1" These heart-stopping swings signal a volatile period with high potential that could either bring great joy to the snow-starved region or massive heartbreak. Extreme solutions should be discounted without strong and sustained support. Instead, until run-to-run continuity improves, one should focus on developments on the ensembles, especially as historic experience has not been kind. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was -4.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.640 today. On March 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.208 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.841 (RMM).

In terms of the extreme forecast made for NYC to average 5° below normal for March 1-April 15, the needed anomaly for the remainder of the period has increased to 6.0° below normal.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° The mild weather will continue tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.4°; 15-Year: 46.8° Newark: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 48.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.2°

EPS Snowfall amounts for New York City and last four runs of the operational ECMWF for New York City and Philadelphia:

In the wake of the storm that brought heavy rain and coastal flooding to the region overnight into today, milder weather will follow tomorrow and continue into early next week. Afterward, it will turn more seasonable for a time. A colder regime will develop during the second week of the March. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +0.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.186 today. On March 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.836 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.389 (RMM).

Yes. This year’s figure is 1.7”.

1.6”.

No. NYC is now at 2.2”. The record is 2.8” during 1972-73.

Morning thoughts… Rain will end and clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 51° It will turn milder on tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5° Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9°

EPS ensembles for the March 10-12 period:

Some sleet is falling in Larchmont, NY.

A storm will bring rain to Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City overnight into Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central New York State and central to northern New England. Albany could see 4"-8" of snow. After what increasingly appears to be a warmer than normal first week to March, a colder regime could develop during the second week of the month. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. However, the March 13-20 timeframe could be the month's coldest week with temperatures averaging 5°- 8° below normal for the week. The colder regime will gradually fade afterward, but could last into or even through the closing week of March. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. For further historical perspective, there were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. Historical perspective argues for caution when the operational models are popping big snowstorms into and out of existence like quantum particles in the extended range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.086 today. On March 1 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.385 (RMM). The February 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.255 (RMM).

Following today's elimination of the extended range major snowstorm on the models, some rules that seem to apply to Winter 2022-2023 are below:

What the prolonged near total absence of snow does to those in the Middle Atlantic forums of AmericanWx (New York City, Philadelphia, Mid-Atlantic). That the map could disappear with the next run is irrelevant:

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast for March 13-20 maintained the longstanding cold idea. That might offer the Mid-Atlantic region its best opportunity for at least some snowfall.

Probably between 6 pm and 8 pm.

Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase during the day. A soaking rain will arrive late in the day or at night and continue into tomorrow. A general 0.50”-1.50” of rain is likely. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 49° It will turn milder on Sunday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.5° Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9°

LGA's record is 77.9" during winter 1995-96.

The ranking includes both components. It’s close. I’ll have to check later.

We’re currently #2 just behind 2001-02.

A storm will bring rain to Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City tomorrow into Saturday. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central New York State and central to northern New England. Albany could see 5"-10" of snow. After what increasingly appears to be a warmer than normal first week to March, a colder regime could develop during the second week of the month. At present, no severe March cold appears likely. The colder regime could last into or even through the closing week of March. In addition, historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. Despite attractive 500 mb patterns, the base case is that at least through March 10th, snowfall will likely be below normal from Philadelphia to New York City. Reflecting the base case scenario, the 12z operational ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM have no significant snowfall through March 10th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +12.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.099 today. On February 28 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.253 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.982 (RMM).

Lowest snow seasons through February and their progression through April 15th. Mean additional snowfall: 3.2". Maximum in the sample: 9.4". Possible insight: Prospects for a very snowy March or a big March snowstorm are probably low, if the historic experience is representative.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely surge well into the 50s ahead of a cold front. Showers are possible. Another storm is possible later Friday into Saturday. From Philadelphia to New York City, the storm will likely be mostly or all rain. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities. After a somewhat warmer than normal start, a colder regime will likely develop during the second week of the month and could last into the closing week of March. Overall, March will likely wind up colder than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.460 today. On February 27 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.980 (RMM). The February 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.729 (RMM).