donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and very warm today. There could be an afternoon or evening shower or thundershower. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 82° The unseasonable warmth will continue into the start of the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.7° Newark: 30-Year: 62.1°; 15-Year: 62.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.3°; 15-Year: 64.7° In the Northern Plains, following a blizzard, the temperature fell into the single digits at Billings for the second consecutive day. The previous latest two consecutive days with such readings occurred on April 11-12, 1997.

The warmth will crest tomorrow. Under partly sunny skies, thermometers will soar into the upper 70s and even lower 80s in much of the region. The south shore of Long Island and the Connecticut shore could be exceptions where it is cooler. A shower or thundershower is possible. Overall, tomorrow through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts. A blizzard continues to impact the Northern Plains. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts near 3 feet by the time the storm ends tonight or tomorrow. Drifts in excess of 6 feet are likely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May. The SOI was +25.74 today. Today was the 9th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was December 20-28, 2011 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 9 consecutive days. The last time a streak of 7 or more such days occurred in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.968 today. On April 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.712 (RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.570 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 46% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.5° (0.2° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and warm today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Southeast Pennsylvania could see the mercury reach 80°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 80° Much of the week will see above to much above normal temperatures. Back door cold fronts could briefly interrupt the warmth in some areas. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.2° Newark: 30-Year: 61.7°; 15-Year: 62.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.9°; 15-Year: 64.3° In the Northern Plains, a blizzard is raging. Bismarck picked up 10.0” snowfall yesterday. That is only the 3rd daily snowfall on record of 10” or more on or after April 12. Records go back to 1874.

At least 1.3” for the month. That’s still not official, as the 1” total from April 11 hasn’t been put into the books just yet.

0.3” of snow in Portland, OR today. https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/1514025720170745856?s=20&t=kr4UZ5Sa9F5wj6oDe7i2lw

Clouds and light rain gave way to warm sunshine. In response, the temperature soared into the lower 70s in much of the region. Overall, tomorrow through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts. A blizzard is currently raging in the Northern Plains. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts near 3 feet. Drifts in excess of 6 feet are likely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May. The SOI was +24.44 today. Today was the 8th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was January 20-27, 2012 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 8 consecutive days. The last time that happened in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.519 today. On April 10 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.573 (RMM). The April 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.497 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.6° (0.1° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy during the morning and partly sunny and unseasonably warm during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 74° Much of the week will see above to much above normal temperatures. Back door cold fronts could briefly interrupt the warmth in some areas. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.2° Newark: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.9 In the Northern Plains, a blizzard will develop in North Dakota.

Noticeably warmer air began moving into the region. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, the temperature reached 61° at New York City's Central Park, 62° at Newark, and 61° at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Portland, OR saw its latest measurable snowfall on record. At least 1.0" of snow accumulated today. Prior to today, the latest measurable snowfall on record occurred on March 25, 1965 when 0.3" was recorded. The latest 1" or above snowfall occurred on March 8, 1951 when a storm dumped 7.6" of snow. Records go back to 1940. It will be much warmer tomorrow with widespread readings in the 70s. Overall, tomorrow through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts. The Northern Plains will witness the development of a major spring blizzard tonight and tomorrow. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with drifts in excess of 4 feet. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of May. The SOI was +23.00 today. Today was the 7th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was January 13-19, 2021 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 7 consecutive days. The last time that happened in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.642 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.499 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.366 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Warmer air will begin to move into the region. It will be partly sunny and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 63° Much of the week will see above to much above normal temperatures. Back door cold fronts could briefly interrupt the warmth in some areas. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.4° Newark: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.0°; 15-Year: 63.6

Noticeably warmer air will begin to move into the region starting tomorrow. Tuesday through Friday will generally be warmer to much warmer than normal. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts. The Northern Plains could witness the development of a major spring snowstorm or blizzard tomorrow night or Tuesday. Parts of North Dakota could see 1-2 feet of snow with drifts in excess of 4 feet. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +21.41 today. Today was the 6th consecutive day that the SOI was +20.00 or above. The last time that happened was January 13-19, 2021 when the SOI reached +20.00 or above on 7 consecutive days. The last time that happened in April was March 28-April 5, 2011 when the SOI reached at least +20.00 on 9 consecutive days. Then, there was a brief period of much warmer than normal temperatures following the end of that stretch and a longer period of much warmer than normal temperatures starting about 2 1/2 weeks later. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.977 today. On April 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.355 (RMM). The April 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.423 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (0.3° above normal).

It is quite springlike here in terms of flowers. Some were damaged by the late March cold.

Despite considerable clouds, sprinkles, and a temperature in the upper 40s, spring scenes are widespread throughout the New York Botanical Garden.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and cool today. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° It will turn warmer starting tomorrow and much of the week will see above to much above normal temperatures. Back door cold fronts could briefly interrupt the warmth in some areas. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 59.6°; 15-Year: 60.0° Newark: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.6°; 15-Year: 63.2°

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and cooler. Noticeably warmer air will likely move into the region early next week. The warmth will likely continue through much of the week before cooler air returns. There could be brief interruptions of the warmth from backdoor cold fronts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +24.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.208 today. On April 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.420 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.520 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.9° (0.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy with some showers. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 59° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 59.2°; 15-Year: 59.6° Newark: 30-Year: 60.0°; 15-Year: 60.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.2°; 15-Year: 62.8°

Rain will return tomorrow. Showers and periods of rain are likely. Readings will be confined to the 50s tomorrow and Sunday, even Sunday is partly to mostly sunny. Noticeably warmer air will likely move into the region early next week. The warmth will likely continue through much of the week before cooler air returns. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +22.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.038 today. On April 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.516 (RMM). The April 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.530 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.9° (0.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 64° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.8°; 15-Year: 59.2° Newark: 30-Year: 59.6°; 15-Year: 60.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.8°; 15-Year: 62.4°

Morning thoughts… Rain will develop and it could fall moderately to perhaps heavily this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.7° Newark: 30-Year: 59.1°; 15-Year: 59.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 61.9°

Drizzle is likely overnight before additional steady rain arrives tomorrow. The rain could fall moderately to heavily at times tomorrow afternoon. A shower or two is possible on Friday. Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days. It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +31.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.640 today. On April 4 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.343 (RMM). The April 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.356 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with rain. Most of the rain will fall during the morning hours. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.3° Newark: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 59.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.5°

Rain and showers will continue overnight. Some of the rain tomorrow morning could be heavy. Overall, rain and showers and could linger through at least Thursday even as there will likely be a break tomorrow. Overall, the week will see mainly near to somewhat below normal temperatures. There are growing hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could move into the region next week for several days. It is likely that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +25.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.690 today. On April 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.372 (RMM). The April 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.331 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy. Rain will arrive late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 57° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.5°; 15-Year: 57.9° Newark: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.1°

Rain and showers will return late tomorrow and could linger through at least Thursday. Overall, the week will see mainly near normal temperatures. Late in the second week of the month, there are some hints on the guidance that noticeably warmer air could try to move into the region. It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +14.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.360 today. On April 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.496 (RMM). The April 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.667 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny with readings near or just below seasonable levels. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 57° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 57.0°; 15-Year: 57.5° Newark: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 58.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.1°; 15-Year: 60.7°

It was covered. This reality may not have reached a sufficiently broad audience: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114272