donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… It will become partly to mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of light rain. Parts of northwest New Jersey and adjacent Pennsylvania and New York State could see some early snow. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 58° Temperatures will be near or somewhat below normal through midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 57.5° Newark: 30-Year: 57.4°; 15-Year: 58.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.7°; 15-Year: 60.3°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be somewhat cooler than normal. Dry conditions with near normal temperatures will return on Monday. Nevertheless, it is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was -3.39 today. The SOI fell 20.48 points over the past day. The last time that happened was October 22-23, 2021 when the SOI fell 28.43 points. The last time the SOI fell by 20 or more points in a 24-hour span in April was April 13-14, 2018. El Niño conditions developed the following winter. It's premature to make any ENSO forecasts for next winter given that we're in spring and such forecasts from this far out lack skill. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.928 today. On March 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.779 (RMM). The March 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.647 (RMM).

Temperatures rose into the 50s at the New York Botanical Garden where daffodils are blooming in increasing numbers.

Morning thoughts… It will become partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 55° Showers and periods of rain are likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 57.1° Newark: 30-Year: 57.0°; 15-Year: 57.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 59.2°; 15-Year: 59.9°

It will be partly sunny and cooler tomorrow. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be somewhat cooler than normal. Nevertheless, it is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat warmer normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +17.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.325 today. On March 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.650 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.665 (RMM).

We’ve already seen some early hints of drought-heat feedback in the Southwest. More heat—possibly record-challenging heat—could develop there next week.

Morning thoughts... Clouds and light rain will slowly yield to clearing. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 58° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 59° A cooler weekend lies ahead. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.3° Newark: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 57.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.8°; 15-Year: 59.5° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 52.9° Average temperature: 53.3° Average error: 1.9° Newark: Average daily forecast: 54.2° Average temperature: 54.3° Average error: 1.8° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 57.5° Average temperature: 57.1° Average error: 1.8°

A warmer than normal March is now concluding. Despite an exceptional cold shot that was among the most significant cold shots this late in the season in nearly 40 years, March saw the temperature in Central Park average 45.3° or 2.5° above normal. A line of strong thunderstorms was pressing eastward at 10 pm. Parts of the area will likely experience a severe thunderstorm with damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours. Tomorrow will see any early clouds give way to partly sunny skies. It will be somewhat cooler. It is possible that New York City's Central Park has seen its last freeze of the season. Overall, April could wind up near to somewhat above normal overall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +6.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.562 today. On March 29 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.596 (RMM).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.7 0.6 -0.9 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 -2.0

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are likely, especially this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 70° Somewhat cooler air will return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.3°; 15-Year: 55.9° Newark: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 57.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.4°; 15-Year: 59.1°

Tomorrow will be warm with highs well into the 60s despite some rain, showers, and perhaps thunderstorms. It will turn somewhat cooler for the weekend. Today may well have been the last time this year the temperature fell below 30° in New York City until next winter. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +1.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.355 today. On March 28 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.596 (RMM). The March 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.308 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

On March 27th, the range was 21-12. On April 7, 1982, the range was 22-8.

Morning thoughts… Today was the 4th consecutive day that the temperature fell below 30° in New York City after March 26th and just the 7th time on record. 4 of those cases occurred prior to 1900 and the most recent case was April 5-8, 1982. After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 52° The warmup will continue through tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 55.5° Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.0°; 15-Year: 58.7°

After another cool start, tomorrow will turn noticeably milder with readings reaching the middle and perhaps upper 40s despite the presence of a lot of clouds. Thursday will be warm with highs well into the 60s despite some rain, showers, and perhaps thunderstorms. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +3.49 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.095 today. On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.311 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.108 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

Throughout Putin’s tenure, no Western leader or set of leaders tried to constrain him. Despite a dramatic turn in rhetoric against the U.S. and West during the mid-2000s, he was viewed by every President from Bush to Trump as someone with whom one could do business. But such an assumption required Putin’s commitment to rules and norms. By 2008 and, most definitely 2014, that assumption lay in ruins, but driven by hope and intellectual inertia, the policy approach remained essentially unchanged or worse. The 2018 Helsinki Summit was a foreign policy catastrophe. That may have been the moment Putin concluded that the U.S. was unwilling and unable to take measures to check his ambitions. The possibility of deterrence was lost and Putin’s ambitions were scaled up. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 likely further reinforced Putin’s conclusions. The end result is Putin’s attempted ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Savage is not a credible source on Russia or history. He is not a Russia expert, former diplomat, or historian. Russia's history has long been defined by conquests. Indeed, in his seminal work during Russia's Crimean War, Ivan Golovin wrote of Russia, "The history of Russia is the history of its conquests... [O]ffering only a military despotism--the Russian Government is not easy in a state of peace." Golovin continued, "Russia represents a principle, despotism, and she will defend herself against liberty by stifling it in birth." Russia under Vladimir Putin is frozen in the 19th century. Its worldview is stuck in a dangerous combination of imperial ambitions and pathological insecurity. President Putin saw Ukraine's shift to the West, something Russia rejects, and efforts to build a vibrant democracy as posing a mortal threat to its political model. Despotism and democracy are incompatible. Putin chose to try to suffocate Ukraine's nascent democracy. At the same time, Putin seeks to rebuild a Russian empire. He has taken a growing number of increasingly aggressive risks to do so. President Zelensky was nowhere on the political scene when Putin invaded parts of Georgia in 2008. President Zelensky was not on the political scene when Russia invaded parts of Ukraine in 2014 leading to its illegitimate annexation of Crimea. Putin, like despots before him, has an ambition that goes far beyond what the limits of international principles--including long-established principles pertaining to state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-aggression--permit. Again, Golovin nailed the dynamic that is present in explaining, "[T]here are no limits to a despot's ambition." Garry Kasparov wrote of Vladimir Putin in his fairly prescient Winter is Coming: Like most dictators, Putin has good animal instincts when it comes to evaluating his rivals, and he knew he would face no real opposition from other world leaders. And, also like all dictators, Putin grew bolder with every successful step. Dictators do not ask why before they take more power; they only ask why not. That is who Putin is. That is why he has pushed ahead with his latest war. Russia's floundering but destructive invasion of Ukraine has little to do with President Zelensky's alleged provocations. It has everything to do with Putin's longstanding designs. Indeed, on February 26th, Kremlin-friendly RIA Novosti accidentally published and then withdrew an essay prematurely celebrating a rapid Russian victory that ultimately did not occur. That essay read, in part: A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era... Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians... Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. The U.S., Europe, and any nation that legitimately stands for a rules-based international order against the chaotic alternative where exercises of brute force regularly write and rewrite the rules in their bloody and brutal aftermath, should support Ukraine. Any nation that credibly claims to embrace democratic governance should stand by Ukraine. To again borrow from Golovin who nailed the character and nature of Tsarist Russia, of which Putin's Russia has become a 21st century extension, "If liberty... does not destroy despotism, despotism will destroy it." That's what is actually at stake. Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, and Ukraine in 2022 are the symptoms of this growing battle between the despotism of Putin's Russia and democracy. If Russia again succeeds, even if by merely being permitted to retain part of its territorial gains from the current war it launched, it almost certainly will look for additional opportunities, both to expand and to undermine democratic governance along its borders. An ever insecure, increasingly ambitious, and aging President Putin, could become even more aggressive in pushing his ambitions in pursuit of building the historical legacy he seeks. The pressure of his biological clock could lead him to pursue dangerous, if not catastrophic short cuts to try to realize that legacy.

Morning thoughts… After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny and somewhat milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 45° The warmup will continue through Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 55.1° Newark: 30-Year: 55.4°; 15-Year: 56.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 58.3°

April 1915 had 10".

An Arctic air mass seemingly turned the calendar back several pages to January. Under bright sunshine coupled with some clouds and a few passing flurries, the mercury rose into the lower and middle 30s across the region. At New York City, the high was 33°, which was the coldest high temperature this late in the season since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Newark, the high of 35° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Philadelphia, the high of 36° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the temperature also topped out at 36°. Record low maximum temperatures were set or tied at locations including: Allentown: 31° (old record: 37°, 1959, 1966, and 1996) Binghamton: 18° (old record: 23°, 1966) Boston: 33° (tied record set in 1893) Bridgeport: 32° (old record: 35°, 1959 and 1966) Hartford: 31° (old record: 34°, 1923, 1926, 1937, 1959, and 1966) Islip: 33° (old record: 35°, 1966) Mount Pocono, PA: 21° (old record: 24°, 1937) New York City-JFK: 34° (old record: 37°, 1959) New York City-LGA: 32° (old record: 36°, 1966) New York City-NYC: 33° (old record: 34°, 1893) Newark: 35° (tied record set in 1937) Poughkeepsie: 31° (old record: 35°, 1939 and 1959) Providence: 34° (tied record set in 1926) Scranton: 27° (old record: 28°, 1937) Worcester: 27° (old record: 28°, 1966) At Binghamton, the 18° high was the lowest maximum temperature on record this late in the season. The old record was 21°, which was set on April 4, 1975 and tied on April 7, 1982. The previous latest high temperature below 20° occurred on March 22, 1959 when the high was 19°. The previous latest 18° high temperature occurred on March 21, 1988 when the temperature reached 18°. Tomorrow will again start with low temperatures in the lower and middle 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The afternoon will turn milder as the thermometer pushes into the 40s. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April. The SOI was +6.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.912 today. On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.111 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.635 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

Morning thoughts... As of 6 am, low temperatures included: New York City: 23° (coldest this late in the season since April 5, 1995) Newark: 23° (coldest this late in the season since April 5, 1995) Philadelphia: 26° (coldest this late in the season since March 29, 2015) At Binghamton, the temperature was 12°, which was just 1° above the daily record set in 1975. Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cold. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. The temperature will rise into the upper 30s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 38° Tomorrow will start cold but see the mercury rise into the 40s during the afternoon. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.1°; 15-Year: 54.7° Newark: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.9°

Tomorrow will be blustery and unseasonably cold. Some snow flurries and snow showers are possible. Maximum temperatures in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia could be held to their lowest levels for March 28th and later since at least April 8, 2003. The morning low temperature could start in the lower and middle 20s. Some teens are possible in the suburbs. Tuesday will again see low temperatures fall well into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. In New York City, the average will likely come out near 42.3°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +11.49 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.256 today. On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.635 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.099 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.3° (2.5° above normal).

Apparently, it seems that Joe Bastardi backs Russian aggression against Ukraine in suggesting that a possible guest appearance by Ukrainian President Zelensky will be the reason “no one” watches the Academy Awards. Zelensky is a heroic and courageous figure who has galvanized the free world in his leadership during Russia’s invasion. The link:

There was a burst of graupel in Larchmont that wet the streets a short time ago.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and breezy. A snow shower or even squall is possible in parts of the region during the afternoon or evening as an Arctic front moves through. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 48° It will turn much colder tonight and temperatures will rise no higher than the lower or middle 30s tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.7°; 15-Year: 54.3° Newark: 30-Year: 54.6°; 15-Year: 55.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 57.5°

An Arctic air mass is poised to invade the region. The frigid air will begin to move into the region tomorrow. Parts of the area could see some snow showers or even a snow squall that could briefly whiten the ground. Monday and Tuesday will see low temperatures fall well into the 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The mean last dates for readings below 30° are: New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24) Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25) Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, as occurred this year, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° Actual data coupled with modeling for the rest of March show that all three cities will wind up with a colder than normal March 22-31 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +5.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.113 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.098 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.218 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (2.7° above normal).