donsutherland1

It depends on how things look. Overnight, the individual ensemble members have backed off quite a bit.

Milder weather has returned to the region. The above normal temperatures will persist until Thursday. Wednesday could be exceptionally mild. Late in the week, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Instead a light snowfall, possibly in the 1"-2" range with some locally higher amounts is on the table. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +12.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.172. On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.817 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.3° (1.4° above normal).

That’s a more promising event for NYC than the one before it. There are still a lot of possible scenarios. By midweek things may start to become clearer.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. Clouds will begin to increase during the evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 58° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and mild with some periods of rain likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5° Newark: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 44.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.7°; 15-Year: 45.5°

That’s only because of the colder end to the month. At this point, it’s a safe bet that this will wind up a solidly warmer than normal February.

Right now, neither storm looks likely to bring much snow to the region.

Milder weather will return starting tomorrow, but some cold could return in time for a late week storm. As a result, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +5.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.988. On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.793 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.5° (1.6° above normal).

Yes. It’s on the Model lab page (lab.weather models.com).

Morning thoughts… Today will be sunny but cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 40° Milder air will return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Newark: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 44.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.4°; 15-Year: 45.2°

In the wake of today's snow showers and snow squall, tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Milder weather will return early next week, but some cold could return in time for a late week storm. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The probability that the warm pattern could begin to break down during the closing days of February has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -0.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.336. On February 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.796 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.707 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal).

Some photos from today’s snow squall:

Morning thoughts… Bright sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds in parts of the region. Snow showers and a heavier snow squall are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30 and lower 40s in most of the region ahead of the arrival of the colder air. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 47° Tomorrow fair and cold. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.0° Newark: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.0°

There’s no way to tell at this point in the season. After the spring, there’s more skill with the ENSO forecasts.

A cool weekend lies ahead before much milder air returns next week for a time. Tomorrow will start with sunshine. However, the atmosphere will be highly unstable. As a result snow showers or a possible squall line could develop during the afternoon. The potential exists for parts of the region to pick up a quick coating of snow with some locally higher amounts. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The probability that the warm pattern could begin to break down during the closing days of February has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was 0.00 today. The last time the SOI had a value of 0.00 was February 4, 2016. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.970. On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.708 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.387 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Clouds will break and it will become partly sunny and windy. Temperatures will begin to fall from currently mild levels. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region ahead of the arrival of the colder air. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and colder. Some snow showers are possible. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 42.8° Newark: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.9°; 15-Year: 44.7°

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature soared to record high levels in parts of the region. Daily records included: Boston: 61° (tied record set in 1981) Concord: 59° (old record: 58°, 1880 and 1883) New York City: 68° (old record: 67°, 1976) Newark: 69° (old record: 66°, 1976 and 2011) Philadelphia: 69° (old record: 68°, 1976) Wilmington, DE: 71° (old record: 70°, 1976) Worcester: 59° (old record: 56°, 1981) Tomorrow will start very warm, but the temperature will fall during the day. A cool weekend lies ahead before milder air returns next week. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. However, uncertainty concerning a return of colder weather for the closing days of February or the first week of March has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +1.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.222. On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.389 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.385 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (2.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Showers are possible late in the day or overnight. It will become increasingly windy late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 65° Tomorrow will be very windy. Temperatures will fall during the day. A cool weekend lies ahead before temperatures again rebound. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 42.6° Newark: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.7°; 15-Year: 44.5°

Milder air returned to the region. As a result, temperatures rose into the 40s in most of the region and 50s in parts of southeastern Pennsylvania today. Tomorrow will be even warmer with the mercury reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Overall, the stage is now set for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. However, uncertainty concerning a return of colder weather for the closing days of February or the first week of March has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -1.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.044. On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.385 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.428 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (2.1° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 51° Tomorrow and Friday will be vary warm days. It will also turn very windy later tomorrow into Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Newark: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.5°; 15-Year: 44.3°

Today saw the temperature bottom out at 16° in Central Park. New York City has now gone 1,111 consecutive days without a temperature below 10°. That is the second longest such streak on record. The record of 1,410 days was set from February 18, 1930 through December 28, 1933. That record could be surpassed on December 12th. As no single-digit readings are likely through the remainder of February and the last such occurrence during the March 1-December 12 period was December 12, 1988, it is likely that the record will fall. In addition, 4 of the 5 1,000-day streaks have occurred since 1990, with 3 occurring since 2000. Records go back to 1869. Milder air will pour into the region starting tomorrow. This will set the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. Strong winds are also possible later Thursday into Friday. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. Cooler weather could develop afterward, but uncertainty concerning the timing of such a shift exists. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -16.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.452. On February 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.429 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.247 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.2° (2.3° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cold. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 32° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 36° Noticeably warmer weather will return to the region, as a sustained warmer than normal pattern develops tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 42.2° Newark: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.2°; 15-Year: 44.0

Despite bright sunshine, temperatures remained in the middle and upper 20s across much of the region today. A stiff breeze added to the icy feel. Tomorrow will be another fair but unseasonably cold day. Afterward, milder air will pour into the region setting the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -12.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.246. On February 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.253 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.203 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.1° (2.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 26° Newark: 27° Philadelphia: 31° After another cold day tomorrow, much warmer weather will return to the region, as a sustained warmer than normal pattern develops. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 41.8° Newark: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 42.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.0°; 15-Year: 43.8°

On the heels of near record and record warmth, a storm brought a light to moderate snowfall to the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. Accumulations included: Allentown: 5.1" Boston: 3.1" Bridgeport: 2.8" Hartford: 1.9" Islip: 2.0" New York City-Central Park: 1.6" New York City-JFK: 2.2" New York City-LGA: 2.3" Newark: 1.9" Philadelphia: 0.4" Providence: 2.8" In the wake of the snowfall, tomorrow and Tuesday will be fair but unseasonably cold. Afterward, milder air will pour into the region setting the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. Out west, Los Angeles recorded its 5th consecutive 80° day. That broke the February record of 4 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-25, 1954 and tied during February 11-15, 2015 and February 7-10, 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -0.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.609. On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.208 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.159 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal).

JFK’s normal snowfall through 2/13 is 16.7”.