donsutherland1

Very creative. It’s amazing how much burst into bloom in recent days.

From the New York Botanical Garden:

Milder conditions will follow in the wake of a storm that brought snow to parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region today. Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow and Friday. Saturday will also be mild with the potential for rain and high winds. Temperatures could fall sharply later in the day with rain changing to a period of accumulating snow in northern and western sections of the region. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +12.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today. On March 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.468 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.333 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.6° above normal).

0.2"

In the latest PNS, Central Park reported a trace of snow. Yet, the ground is actually whitened as per the camera at Columbus Circle. Were a proper measurement taken on a snow board, one would be dealing with a few tenths of an inch of snow, not a trace. Here's a very recent image from Columbus Circle:

The persistence in the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies is likely an important factor.

No. The NAO will likely stay positive.

Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy. A cold rain and/or wet snow is likely in much of the region. Well north and west of New York City, there could be a 1”-3” snowfall. Elsewhere, 1” or less is likely in the vicinity of New York City and Newark. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 39° Philadelphia: 43° Following the storm, tomorrow and Friday will be milder days. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.5°; 15-Year: 48.1° Newark: 30-Year: 48.5°; 15-Year: 49.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.6°

Overnight and tomorrow, a storm will bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region tomorrow. Interior sections of southeastern New York across central New England will likely see 1"-3" of snow with some pockets of 3"-6" amounts. Snowfall estimates include: Boston: 1"-3" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Hartford: 1"-3" Islip: 1" or less New York City: 1" or less Newark: 1" or less Philadelphia: 0.5" or less White Plains: 1"-3" Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.002 today. On March 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.327 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.160 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal).

NWS snowfall forecast:

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and noticeably cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 51° A storm could bring a cold rain and wet snow tomorrow. Some accumulations are possible, especially on grassy surfaces. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.2°; 15-Year: 47.7° Newark: 30-Year: 48.3°; 15-Year: 49.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.3°

Ahead of an advancing cold front, temperatures soared to record levels in parts of the region away from the coastline. Daily records included: Allentown: 73° (old record: 70°, 1974, 1987, and 2009) Atlantic City: 76° (old record: 75°, 1974) Baltimore: 79° (old record: 76°, 1974) Georgetown, DE: 79° (old record: 75°, 1961) New York City-LGA: 74° (old record: 69°, 1987 and 2009) New York City-NYC: 74° (tied record set in 1946) Newark: 76° (old record: 75°, 1946) Philadelphia: 77° (old record: 74°, 1974) Salisbury: 79° (old record: 75°, 1974) Sterling, VA: 77° (old record: 76°, 1974) Trenton: 74° (old record: 72°, 1946 and 2009) Washington, DC: 80° (old record: 77°, 1961) Wilmington, DE: 78° (old record: 73°, 2009) In the New York City area, JFK Airport registered a high temperature of 59°. The last time JFK had a maximum temperature that was at least 15° colder than the Central Park high temperature was March 15, 2019. On that date, JFK record a high of 59° while Central Park saw the temperature top out at 75°. The record such spread in March is 22°. That mark was set on March 15, 1990, when the mercury reached 77° in Central Park but only 55° at JFK. In the wake of the cold front, readings will turn cooler. There is a growing risk that a storm could bring a cold rain or wet snow to the region on Wednesday. Some accumulations are possible especially on grassy surfaces. Milder conditions will follow in the storm's wake. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.004 today. On March 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.208 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.068 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.0° (2.2° above normal).

EWR has reached as high as 76 so far.

It was 62, which just missed the record of 63 from 2004.

Probably not. Mid-60s is more likely.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and very warm today Showers and perhaps a thundershower are likely during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region and upper 70s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 78° Cooler air will return for tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.4° Newark: 30-Year: 48.0°; 15-Year: 48.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.6°; 15-Year: 49.9°

On this date in 1941, a blizzard dumped 15.7" of snow on New York City. This time around readings soared to record-tying and record breaking highs. Daily records included: Albany: 64° (old record: 63°, 1974) Atlantic City: 71° (old record: 68°, 1959 and 2004) Baltimore: 78° (old record: 76°, 1935) Hartford: 64° (tied record set in 1935) New York City-LGA: 68° (old record: 64°, 1976) New York City-NYC: 68° (tied record set in 1935) Newark: 69° (tied record set in 1935) Poughkeepsie: 67° (old record: 63°, 1935) Sterling, VA: 78° (old record: 70°, 2004) Wilmington, DE: 71° (tied record set in 1935) Tomorrow will be another exceptionally warm day. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Baltimore and Washington, DC could reach or exceed 80°. There could be some showers or thundershowers as a cold front moves across the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain mainly above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, a colder pattern could develop. The duration of such a pattern remains somewhat uncertain. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +22.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.031 today. On March 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.069 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.161 (RMM).

With sunshine breaking through the clouds and temperatures in the 60s, it feels like spring. At the New York Botanical Garden, there are increasing signs of spring.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and warm today High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60 in most of the region and 70s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 71° Near record and record warmth is likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.6°; 15-Year: 47.1° Newark: 30-Year: 47.7°; 15-Year: 48.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.6°

Tomorrow and Monday will provide an early preview of spring. Tomorrow will likely see numerous near record and record high temperatures. Select daily records for tomorrow include: Atlantic City: 68°, 1959 and 2004 Baltimore: 76°, 1935 New York City-JFK: 63°, 2004 New York City-LGA: 64°, 1976 New York City-Central Park: 68°, 1935 Newark: 69°, 1935 Philadelphia: 71°, 1935 Trenton: 71°, 1894 Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, there is growing model consensus that a noticeably colder pattern could develop. The development and duration of such a pattern remain somewhat uncertain. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +19.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.317 today. On March 3 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.161 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.314 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and warmer today High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region and 50s in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 54° Near record and record warmth is likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.4°; 15-Year: 46.8° Newark: 30-Year: 47.4°; 15-Year: 48.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.2°

It will be variably cloudy and milder tomorrow. A sharp rebound in temperatures is likely on Sunday. Sunday and Monday could provide an early preview of springlike readings across much of the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, there is growing model consensus that a noticeably colder pattern could develop. The development and duration of such a pattern remain somewhat uncertain. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +14.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was not available today. On March 2 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.317 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.471 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and unseasonably cold today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 38° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 44° It will turn warmer tomorrow and Sunday could be exceptionally warm for the season. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5° Newark: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9°

Cooler air started pushing into the region following passage of a strong cold front early this morning. In the Southeast, there was near record and record warmth. At Atlanta, the temperature reached 80°, which tied the record set in 1992. At Charlotte, the mercury reached 85°, which broke the old record of 84° from 1976. That was also Charlotte's earliest 85° or above temperature on record. Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely start in the teens outside the major cities of the northern Middle Atlantic region and lower 20s elsewhere and then recover to only the middle and upper 30s. However, a sharp rebound in temperatures is likely on Sunday. Sunday and Monday could provide an early preview of springlike readings across much of the region. Afterward, readings could cool, but remain above seasonable levels until after March 10th. Then, there is growing model consensus that a noticeably colder pattern could develop. The development and duration of such a pattern remain somewhat uncertain. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March. The SOI was +18.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.169. On March 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.468 (RMM). The February 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.563 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will become partly sunny. Temperatures will fall sharply this evening. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 50° Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2° Newark: 30-Year: 46.9°; 15-Year: 47.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 48.9°