donsutherland1

Under partly to mostly sunny skies, the temperature surged well into the 60s and even reached 70° at a few locations. The south shore of Long Island was much cooler due to an onshore breeze. There, temperatures held in the 50s. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks into the closing days of March is underway. Tomorrow will likely feature more widespread high temperatures in the 60s. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings, but uncertainty that far out is high. In past cases where the MJO was in Phase 1 during the March 5-15 period with an amplitude of 1.500 or above on one or more days, all four cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was positive were warmer to much warmer than normal. In contrast, all three cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was negative, as is the case this year, were colder to much colder than normal. Mean Temperature for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies < 0°C during March 22-31: Boston: 38.7°; Normal: 42.2° New York City: 41.8°; Normal: 46.2° Philadelphia: 42.2°; Normal: 47.3° For now, the extended range ensembles, including the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 show warm anomalies for the closing 10 days of March. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty given both the timeframe involved and the small sample sizes for MJO-ENSO cases. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +17.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.136 today. On March 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.936 (RMM). The March 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.836 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (3.3° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 68° A general warmer than normal pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 50.0° Newark: 30-Year: 50.4°; 15-Year: 51.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.3°; 15-Year: 52.8°

A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks has now developed. Tomorrow will likely feature widespread high temperatures in the 60s. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler but not necessarily cold readings, but uncertainty that far out is high. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around March 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +12.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.156 today. On March 12 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.836 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.697 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.8° (3.0° above normal).

It will be interesting to see how things evolve. At this point in time, there is a lot of uncertainty. By late spring, the picture should be clearing.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and much milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° A general warmer than normal pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.7° Newark: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.9°; 15-Year: 52.4°

Despite bright sunshine, temperatures remained in the 30s in much of the northern Middle Atlantic region. At New York City, the high temperature of 35° was the coldest high temperature after March 10 since March 15, 2017 when the mercury peaked at just 26°. At Philadelphia, the high temperature of 38° was the coldest high temperature since March 21, 2018 when the maximum temperature was 36°. The evening also saw snow showers bring a coating of snow across parts of northern New Jersey and southeastern New York State. Now, winter weather will yield to more typical springtime weather. A sustained warmer than normal pattern that could last for at least 1-2 weeks will develop starting tomorrow. There remains some potential for the month to end with cooler readings, but uncertainty that far out is high. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +17.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.269 today. On March 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.698 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.367 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.8° (3.0° above normal).

Snow shower this evening:

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny but unseasonably cold. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 37° Newark: 38° Philadelphia: 40° A general warmer than normal pattern will develop tomorrow and continue through at least the remainder of the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.3° Newark: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.6°; 15-Year: 52.1°

The storm responsible for today's mainly light snowfall will rapidly intensify as it heads toward eastern Canada. In its wake, temperatures will plunge into the teens outside Newark and New York City and the lower 20s elsewhere. Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +16.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.737 today. On March 10 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.366 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.054 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal).

Just a trace at both of them.

LGA had 0.4” and EWR had 0.3”

Unfortunately, dry air wrapped into the developing storm’s circulation.

Some photos from earlier today:

Sleepy Hollow, NY:

We’ll probably fall just short unless the changeover occurs between 10 am and 11 am.

Morning thoughts… It will become rainy and very windy. The temperature will fall from morning highs. Rain will change to a period of potentially heavy snow, particularly to the west of New York City and Newark. There could be near blizzard conditions along with some thunder in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 48° Tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Milder air will return on Monday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 48.4°; 15-Year: 49.0° Newark: 30-Year: 49.4°; 15-Year: 50.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.2°; 15-Year: 51.7°

HREF at 3/11 12z and 3/12 0z:

I suspect we’ll see more NAO+ winters, but am more uncertain about ENSO. The world remains on course to badly miss its 2030 goal. The ongoing war could accelerate the transition in Europe and the U.S., especially if fossil fuel prices remain high.

No blocking and a really fast jet stream.

Tomorrow will start mild. Rain, some of which could be heavy, and high winds are likely. Temperatures will fall sharply during the morning. Rain will change to a period of accumulating snow, with the highest amounts north and west of Newark and New York City. The snow could be briefly heavy. Snowfall estimates: Allentown: 3"-6" Baltimore: 1"-3" Boston: 1" or less Bridgeport: 1" or less Islip: 1" or less New York City: 1"-3" Newark: 1"-3" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Poughkeepsie: 4"-8" Washington, DC: 1"-3" White Plains: 2"-4" Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +8.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today. On March 9 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.061 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.741 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.6° (2.8° above normal).

Here it is:

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 59° A strong storm will be followed by a brief but sharp cold shot during the weekend. A period of accumulating snow is likely north and west of New York City and Newark. A minor accumulation is possible in both cities. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 48.1°; 15-Year: 48.7° Newark: 30-Year: 49.1°; 15-Year: 49.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.9°; 15-Year: 51.3°

2 consecutive monthly record low temperatures is impressive.

Milder air returned to the region following yesterday's snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Tomorrow will be another mild day. Temperatures will likely rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow. Saturday will also be mild with the potential for rain and high winds. Temperatures could fall sharply later in the day with rain changing to a period of accumulating snow in northern and western sections of the region. There remains some possibility that minor accumulations could reach the coastline. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Afterward, the potential exists for the development of a sustained warmer than normal pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around March 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through March. The SOI was +7.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.085 today. On March 8 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.743 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.471 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.6° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 50° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 54° A strong storm will be followed by a brief but sharp cold shot during the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 47.8°; 15-Year: 48.4° Newark: 30-Year: 48.8°; 15-Year: 49.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.6°; 15-Year: 51.0°