WxUSAF
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Gfs and euro both have 850 cold enough but below that is pretty torched.
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WPC hazard plot highlights the area for “Heavy Precipitation” on the 16/17th. Heavy rain southeast of DC/Baltimore, heavy snow for PA mountains up into western and northern New England.
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Yup. Just remember the calendar and adjust accordingly. But a really nice 12z suite. 6 days to go.
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Beautiful!! Only one left in Ohio. Strong storms off hatteras. Giggity giggity.
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^keanuwhoa.gif Based on the maps I’ve seen, Eps looks really really nice. Cold and with a more southern transfer to the coast than the Op. Getting tingly.
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Get that handover down by Norfolk or farther south and then we all cash in.
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Hi you must be new here. Welcome to the mid-Atlantic.
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SLP and 850mb storm track is actually a little better on the 0z euro vs this run. OH valley low hangs on a little longer with a slightly farther north handover and inland track at 12z. Just that high is more potent and we have a much colder airmass to start. Both are very small details at D5-7. Take the 12z high pressure and the 0z low pressure and that’s probably ideal for the metro corridor.
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Let’s just keep this looking like this for another 60-72 hrs and then hope we get our usual CAD pregame help.
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That cold high is why it’s as much frozen as it is. Still too much OH valley low and the 850 low tracks over us or even a bit north of us. That’s not a recipe for 100% snow. Need to kill that thing sooner. But that’s the trend today so far for the gfs and GEFS at least. Hope Eps follows.
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Yeah as always. I know I’m not going to lay money on the cities and close in burbs being all snow for this event, if it happens. But a lot of things to like for some snow for many of us.
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I’ll take it. Low actually tracks a bit inland but that cold high keeps areas N/W of 95 frozen. Plus the model trend is faster handoff to the coastal. Crushed
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Euros a hit. Similar to 0z but a bit colder. @psuhoffman not fringed
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Ukie has a lakes low and ggem is flat and sheared, so still a wide range of possibilities.
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Yup. Surface and 500 evolution made a big step. Much more toward favoring a coastal low vs even 6z which showed a primary in the lakes. Confluence to the northeast better as well.
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Not bad. Snow on snow.
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You’ll be happy this year! No cheapie snow days! No snow days at all even!
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This. Maybe it’s a snow-rain-snow deal, but I have a hard time seeing this start as rain with a strong high in prime place for CAD. Not worth sweating these details yet. It’s a nice evolution.
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Icon is warm for Monday. Gfs remains south, but getting closer each run lately. Has rain up to southern MD. Boundary layer is warm but 850s below freezing. Surface dew point would suggest we could wet bulb down to near freezing in DC/Baltimore if we had precip.
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Just saw that and the next panel. Oooohhh baby.
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Important to remember that the Monday and Wednesday/Thursday storm are going to be linked. Have to see how Monday goes and how it preconditions the atmosphere. Definitely agree that Monday is a needle threader.
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Nice to see that for the Monday window. Definitely not dead.
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Soooo close. Not fun to look at, but take that at this range. Even has some snow in NC/VA before somehow the cold air disappears. I’d be happy with snow to rain even given it’s December. Just want to get on the board and hopefully take advantage of this blocking that’s developing.
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Festive!
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Wow, thanks for checking in Deb
