WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Sub 1/4mi vis fog
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6z Eps plots I’ve seen are a tick better than 0z in the feature placement we want. But all in all pretty consistent. Nearing D4 for snow start...let’s keep this rolling.
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Oh I’m definitely not in the N/W camp for this storm. I think there’s a very high chance for mix IMBY. but yeah, I’ll do better than DC
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Is this the icon thread??? Asking for a friend.
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This is true even in a ggem like scenario. Easterly flow off the ocean in the low levels usually produces a transient warm layer somewhere and produces pingers or rain. Meanwhile the Parrs Ridge to Funchester crew are puking dendrites. All very normal.
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Sounds like convection issues to me? Low placement is sometimes following the convection? That’s a mesoscale feature that isn’t worth spending time on now. Hopefully the actual circulation center stays offshore.
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Great posts by @MillvilleWx overnight! I’ve noticed that double barreled low look on the last several euro runs. Can’t tell how legit it is. Without it, the euro probably looks more like the ggem for most of us. Have to watch that going forward.
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I think a healthy portion of the area should expect to mix. Whether that’s sleet or rain depends on location, but I know I’d be very surprised with an all snow event. I hope we’re all in good position to get the deform band like yesterday’s 12z euro.
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Keep the Wednesday storm in the other thread
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You don’t use ensembles for precip type determination
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Tony Pann went 60% chance of snow for Wednesday. Seems bold. I agree with a high % for precip but I’d definitely be saying snow/rain right now...
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This has literally been happening for like 10-15 years. Nothing changes.
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18z gfs slightly less suppressive but tiny changes. Pretty close to 12z.
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Yup, this is what I've seen as well. Haven't spent the time to figure out quite why that pattern is there.
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@psuhoffman I know you said yesterday the outcomes for Monday and Wednesday seemed unrelated. But seeing guidance move in lockstep for both storms today has me wondering...
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For sure. All guidance, pending EPS, went that same way today and a good direction for us. Better than the alternative.
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That deform band would be cold smoke. 12:1 type stuff
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Probably should sharpen your knives then
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So hawt. Suffering through some rain and sleet is worth it for that deform deathband. Wind driven powder. I'd wager there are going to be some exciting EPS members.
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Yeah, but it's a lot closer than 0z. Takes the 850 low right overhead. Definitely less OH valley signature this run. I'd actually wager it would have stayed all snow at DC this run except the surface low track is just onshore in VA.
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Snowing at 126... Heavy snow in I-81 corridor
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I don't hate it so far, that's for sure
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Strong and warm. High pressure out west definitely jumped west at 78hrs, which is nice to see.
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Yeah, I hear you. That evening band was pretty strange. Developed in the NoVA burbs and slowly moved east. I remember watching it on my phone and thinking it wouldn't make it to MBY. Then it arrived and just dumped pure fluff dendrites for a few hours. A 6"+ difference between BWI and me is pretty weird, so that shows how close I was to the edge.
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The entire rest of the GFS run had potential. But bird in hand and all.
