WxUSAF

Everyone except maybe the I81 crew should be rooting for a slightly more progressive solution. Gives us more snow with the probable added benefit of screwing SNE (sorry @WxWatcher007).

New thread...

Latitude and elevation are going to help, as always. @mappy and @psuhoffman are in ideal spots for the deform band as always. But yeah, there’s a risk for the 495 area that it translates farther NE and you get scraped but miss out on the nest. Let’s root for yesterday’s 12z euro scenario!

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised.

Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas

Good morning. Someone start a storm thread!

Same. I’m 370-380’ two miles from 95. It helps. A lot in many situations. But still close enough to be dicey compared to the M-D line crew.

I love being above the Fall Line Sorry @CAPE

Basically. I’d say the Monday 0z runs is where the Op runs are the focus.

If the 18z Eps is exactly right, you should get something on the front end and the back. Just a lot of rain in the middle...

Well, we took some flack, but we made it through D-4 intact and still on course. D-3 comes next. We lower the landing gear after the 0z Monday runs.

Show that SLP and 500 track in winter and the 0th order assumption should be WSW snow for most of LWX WFO zone.

Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet.

Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details.

@tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers.

What storm?

@psuhoffman look again at the 12z euro SLP track. 102hr off south end of OBX. 108hr mouth of the Bay 114hr due north (!) over Rehobeth beach 120hr moves southeast (!) out to sea This is all about how the upper level energy stacks and captures the surface low. Get it to stack in a good place, and we get nuked. As it is, that’s why we get an awesome CCB death band on the euro. Get it to stack in a poor place and it’s

Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see.

It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go.

D^T says toss that ish!

Look at those ensemble members in @NorthArlington101s maps. Can’t be 100% sure without individual panels, but looks like some also move due north between those panels. Difference is they’re all farther east when they do it vs the Op. I think the SLP center is following where the shortwave turns negatively tilted.

^nice pull @NorthArlington101. Op definitely looks like a western outlier. Mouth of the bay to east of OCMD is classic.

New GEFS has more reasonable divergence I believe. @high risk can confirm or deny.

Eh, don’t really see that. Either way, all pretty subtle changes that disappoints a lot of us in this particular case.