WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. 12z GFS says, "hope you like it cold!". Out in lolzland, GFS pushes through an arctic front around 324hrs and then follows it with a lakes cutter at the end of the run
  2. It's painful that we're 48-60hrs out from this storm with the coldest air of the year over us and we're talking about rain with a beautiful 500 and surface track
  3. That looks very rainy on the Ukie. You'd need quite a big jump east to get a snowier solution for the cities. Low pressure over the southern Chesapeake Bay = naso good for snow with no big high to keep us cold.
  4. I'm only a couple miles north of I-95 in the eastern part of the county. Going to be hard to stay all snow there I think (unless things change significantly), but I do think I'll see accumulating snow at the end. If I was out west of Clarksville toward the higher elevation toward Mt Airy, I'd be getting excited that I just might stay all snow.
  5. This is the kind of scenario where you'd want any bit of elevation and distance from the cities you can get. Someone in (for example) Mt Airy might see 6" where someone in Dundalk might only get flurries at the end.
  6. Really...I think we can overcome surface temps that are +1-2C with some dynamics, but not if the whole column from surface to 850mb is +2. So, probably light snow (dusting-1"?) followed by about .25" of rain and then another 2-3" of snow in the cities?
  7. 54hrs looks like the warm point. Looks like probably +2 850 temps at that time. Total precip looks somewhere around 0.5-0.6" for DC and Baltimore.
  8. Light snow into DC and Baltimore by 12z Wed morning. 850 and surface 0 lines on top of I-95.
  9. At 42hr...500mb is closed off, which it wasn't by 48hr on 6z. Tilt of the trough looks the same. 850 temps the same. Surface low a bit farther south.
  10. Vort placement looks identical to 6z through 30hr...ever so slightly more ridging out ahead of the storm. Thus 850 temps are a smidge higher. Smidge is a technical term, BTW.
  11. "Issued 1am Jan 25" Wow...DT's forecast of the future!
  12. 6z GFS ensemble mean definitely shifted eastward relative to 0z, but still is nowhere near the Op.
  13. The 18z GFS shows the -10C line maybe a little south of of where it was on the 12z for Monday at 18z. Not much difference. It's been a long time since I've had to use MOS for a forecast, but it usually went way too warm with arctic air. MOS always "runs to climo" was kind of the rule-of-thumb we used and you had to tweak it for factors like snowcover, arctic air, cloud cover, etc... LWX has highs of 28 in DC and 26 in Baltimore for Monday. I'd probably drop those each by 5F.
  14. What are the numbers? Just looking at the maps, the -10C 2m temp contour stays on or south of the Mason-Dixon line all day. MOS usually runs warm, particularly with arctic airmasses if memory serves.
  15. Did anyone notice that the 18z GFS is still advertising highs in the teens for the 'burbs and maybe about 20F in the cities on Monday?
  16. Was the 18-24" of snow that the 12z GFS showed for Towson not good enough? We CAN get snow from Miller B's people. Does anyone remember Feb 10, 2010? Wasn't that long ago.
  17. Did the vort travel about due south for 24hrs to go from northern Wisconsin to spawn a low in the FL panhandle?
  18. I would think it would switch back to snow after the low passes north with probably several more hours of snow.
  19. That's actually WAY more consistency among the ensemble members than yesterdays 12z run. BTW...Typhoon Tip has a nice thread in the NE subforum on why the various teleconnections are very positive for a big storm (of whatever ptype) next week.
  20. Probably snow-rain-snow on the GGEM. Can't be sure without knowing temps and thicknesses, but based on the track, it would be hard to keep it all snow in DC and Baltimore with a slightly inland track.
  21. Thanks...saw that 1min too late.
  22. Midlo...do you have corresponding 500mb charts for the GFS ensembles? Surface ones look very nice.
  23. There is no freaking way that 20" of snow is an average year for anybody near Richmond. DCA's average snowfall is less than that and BWI's is only 20.8".
  24. GFS is just wickedly cold in the long range, Day 7+. Lots of single digit lows and highs in the teens, verbatim.
  25. Who posted that? Also...maybe we can make a seperate thread for all the weenies who want to cry/b**ch/moan about being bullseyed in a HECS/MECS 4 days out?