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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Yup. Hence the “if” in my post Its a roll of the dice, but it’s one I’d take every time. Doubly so in this year when otherwise background forcing sucks.
  2. WxUSAF
    Early January would be a nice time for this if it happens and we see the pay off.
  3. WxUSAF
    That’s what I had in the contest! SBY too.
  4. WxUSAF
    WTF!!! WTF!!!!
  5. WxUSAF
    Euro has it too. Hopefully I’m not in the flurry screwzone between Monday and Wednesday.
  6. WxUSAF
    First sub-40F high of the year IMBY
  7. WxUSAF
    Uber-long range, Paul Roundy keeps saying how his MJO analogs support Greenland blocking by late December and into January. Interestingly, that’s what the extended GEFS show...
  8. WxUSAF
    ^Icon leaves a lot of energy behind the main cutter and keeps the streams separate. That’s what we want for a frontal wave type deal. Gfs made a clear move toward that today, but not enough. ggem still has a CAD situation on the 16th.
  9. WxUSAF
    2 GFS runs in a row have some very light rain/snow showers Wednesday morning
  10. WxUSAF
    28F. No flurries that I can see, but some radar returns in western HoCo and northern MoCo right now.
  11. WxUSAF
    Can we just not do this please?
  12. WxUSAF
    Put the snowboard out to will this thing north
  13. WxUSAF
    Now would be a good time for that north trend please
  14. WxUSAF
    Eh, doesn’t dump the TPV in AK, but has it consolidated north of the Yukon with a trough in AK and -PNA. Either way, another Xmas torch.
  15. WxUSAF
    Yup, have to see what ensembles say. We don’t want to see that.
  16. WxUSAF
    12z GEFS looks a lot like this at this time.
  17. WxUSAF
    Yeah, it’s done respectably well. Seems to have lost the major cold bias as well. And more reasonably dispersive.
  18. WxUSAF
    Low heights in AK are never ideal, but the ridging on the west coast combined with a pretty good Atlantic side make that a nice look. There’s also a bigger piece of the TPV farther east. If that TPV was over AK...it would be suboptimal.
  19. WxUSAF
    Yes, GEFS uses the FV3 dynamical core now.
  20. WxUSAF
    Ah, the first moderation philosophy complaining. Definitely winter now.
  21. WxUSAF
    There’s a lot to like on the D10 EPS. 50/50, -east NAO, weak +PNA, and cold air. That period next week is definitely one to watch.
  22. WxUSAF
    And there are model hints that we have a weak strat PV going into January and SSW chances.
  23. WxUSAF
    Euro euro euro!!!
  24. WxUSAF
    If you want a political conversation please take it elsewhere instead of this annoying cryptic hinting and beating around the bush.
  25. WxUSAF
    It’s the end of an op run, but the 12z gfs shows the sort of evolution we want to see. Cutter brings down an arctic airmass behind it and an active pattern provides a series of strong short waves moving into that cold air. That cutter also acts as a 50/50 low to reinforce the cold. Then hopefully we get a nice snow event before our annual 70F Christmas Eve when the pac puke arrives with Santa.
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