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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It looks like its throwing out about 3-4 inches in West Knoxville.
  2. John1122
    Probably wrong as it often is, but the GFS is unleashing a massive Arctic blast. Has rain here at 240 but a monster HP at 1049 with temps in the -30 range are in the upper midwest. That arctic air would undercut the system that comes by south of here and probably have freezing precip. Especially western Valley. The SE ridge is often vastly over modeled in the face of that kind of Arctic air mass.
  3. John1122
    Granted it's usually easier at night but as long as it comes as snow and we get good rates, day vs night isn't a huge deal, especially in early February.
  4. John1122
    Another good run of the GFS for most people from the Eastern rim and eastward. Solid 2-4 inches in most of those areas.
  5. John1122
    I'll credit the NAM with schooling the other models on the snow system last week in South and North Carolina. It was the first by far to latch onto snow that far north and west when the other model suites were dry or rain. As usual it was over amped though. So I usually shave 35-40 percent off NAM snow maps.
  6. John1122
    WVLT is already saying 2-4 inches for the Plateau in Friday. 3-5 plus eastern areas. Even with multi model consensus at this point it feels early.
  7. John1122
    Euro came in much better for non-elevated areas from Northern Middle all the way to the Eastern Mountains this run. Not quite as heavy at elevated areas but still plenty of 3 inch totals or more for a lot of the eastern half of the valley.
  8. John1122
    It's probably safe to assume the GEFS is way overamped on the MJO. It tends to try and do that and to have it so high it enters phases it never actually reaches because it verifies much lower than predicted. I would have also in the past went on a sled run with the Euro joining a party inside 5 days that shows me with 8 inches of snow. But these days the Euro is only to be used within 24 hours on snow events in our region. It's excellent at other regions though. It's been all over the Texas/Oklahoma event for a week + and it's probably going to get it almost exact. The GFS had the event but was too far South and East with it. The snow event in NC last week, the Euro didn't catch on until the 12z run the day it happened. Not sure why our region is so tough compared to all the others around the country.
  9. John1122
    00z GFS backed down on the heavy snow from 18z but still has some version of it at elevation. NAM is advertising widespread snow showers into Friday morning still. It was better than other models with the NC snow earlier this past weekend. Maybe it's onto something for Tennessee.
  10. John1122
    These big events (maybe not quite this big) used to happen outside the mountains every 15 or 20 years but alas its been a while. Apparently my great grandfather used to tell my grandfather about this one. He was about 12 years old and lived at about 3000 feet on the Scott/Campbell Co line. He just said snow was up to his thighs during the storm. I'd never known the exact dates though. That looks like an all time southeast valley screw job.
  11. John1122
    With the AO about to set another positive record and the Pacific being bad since December, flakes in the air would be a major win. Let alone even the 1 to 3 the GFS spits out in spots.
  12. John1122
    Nice snow storm on the Euro and under 200 hours. Rarity this season. Really hope we can reel something in here.
  13. John1122
    March has been mixed. One really cold March, a couple mildly BN, a couple mildly AN and one mega torch that was +10. The coldest came in 2013 after a much AN winter. It was -5 to -8.
  14. John1122
    15 finished -.1 at Memphis, -.2 at Nashville, and -.1 at Tri-Cities. There was a +11 in Memphis and a +15 at Nashville in the last 3 days of the month.
  15. John1122
    Out of the AN Januarys all but one saw February be AN to well AN. The one that wasn't was near normal. None went on to see a BN February. Looking at current 10 to 15 day forecasts, the MJO forecast and other factors, I seriously doubt that this one gets to N or BN either. Right now I'd guess we finish at least +3 for February with the potential for that to be far too conservative.
  16. John1122
    Warm and wet.
  17. John1122
    2009-11 were BN, 2012-13 AN, 14BN, 15N, 16BN, 17AN, 18BN, 19-20AN. So 6 below, 5 above and 1 (2015) was about as close to normal as you can get. I think it was -.1 to +.1 at various data sites. Seems skewed because 3 of the 6 were the first 3 years of the period and in 2018 it was BN but ultra dry.
  18. John1122
    The modeled cold has become the modeled warm. Even with a storm to our south and east the temps are in the upper 40s to low 50s on the Euro. There's not a day in the next 10 where the entire forum is sub freezing at the same time, even for a low temp. I believe Knoxville only gets to freezing once in the next 10 days on that run and it was D10. Similar to 1992-93 so far. That one finally snowed more than a trace in late February and then we had the blizzard. I wouldn't count on either of those things happening this year. Pretty amazing that winter snow was likely over by December 12th but it's the climate we live in these days. Two options for snow lovers are to move north or move up in elevation. If you can find a spot above 3 or 4000 feet to move to you'll get at least some snow every year, probably similar to normal amounts at lower elevations from 20 years ago.
  19. John1122
    We averaged +20 during that stretch of January.
  20. John1122
    Are you implying I am cherry picking model runs?
  21. John1122
    Ugly GFS trend this am as well. Mon 6z D12.5 Tues 6z D11.5 Wed 6z D10.5
  22. John1122
    That looks like the forum waiting on a legitimate winter threat inside D7 in 2020.
  23. John1122
    Euro Trend. Mon D10 Tues D9 Wed D8 What looked to be a 3-4 day cool shot looks more like a 12-18 hour one at this point, as we warm back to AN after spending 2-7 mostly BN and there's not a lot of BN 2m in the lower 48 or Southern Canada at D 10. BN 850s are more widespread, but sadly we don't live at 850 unless you're in Western NC or the caretaker at LeConte.
  24. John1122
    The game ended uglier than a southeast ridge.
  25. John1122
    From what I've seen it's been verifying similarly since November or December. It is much warmer than the North American models because they've been ridiculous. the off the chart GEFS had been verifying almost 8 degrees too cold.
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