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John1122

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  1. John1122
    As TNWN said, look at the 18z FV3-GFS. It's colder than 12z. It has highs below 10 nearly state wide and lows in the double digits below 0.
  2. John1122
    It's still cold and stormy, the difference in the two runs was the 18z was more suppressed with the storm at 252-264. 12z was more wound up, less suppressed and went almost due north instead of OTS once it passed beneath us. It laid down heavier snow cover and brought down the extreme sub 0 cold at 12z. Still deep troughs rolling through the east on both runs with huge blocking over Alaska.
  3. John1122
    The best thing about seeing that on a ratio map is that it means it's darn cold when the precip is falling. Much better than worrying about 850s and 925s and surface temps.
  4. John1122
    If you notice, models often do this, it's basically their representation of mist/high humidity that isn't even falling to the surface. Not sure why it does it but I began to notice it a while back. I saw it explained better by someone else.
  5. John1122
    Looks like the band of moisture will be lifting out here soon. Dusting on decks and car tops so far.
  6. John1122
    Finally got snow reaching the ground. Thunder in winter works out again. Fairly steady, hopefully we can squeeze out an inch by morning but the temps are a little warmer than forecast so not sure what will stick. Ground is fairly cold after lower 20s and 10s the last two mornings.
  7. John1122
    Nothing has reached the ground here that I've seen. 34 and virga.
  8. John1122
    Can't find a map but the 1-28-98 event saw 21 inches fall at Wise with a max depth of 16 inches. Missing data at Mountain City with 9 inches on the ground 2 days after the event. Erwin has 9 inches falling with 3.05 inches of QPF. No idea if that snow amount is accurate. It also shows 9 inches on the ground the day that 9 inches fell, 6 inches on the ground the next day. Missing data in Abingdon with 10 inches of snow falling recorded. Tri recorded 2.3 inches of precip but doesn't have snowfall listed/missing data. Elizabethton recorded 18 inches. 5 inches at Gatlinburg. 26 inches at Mt LeConte. Lots of missing data for NE Tn sites is common for the 90s. Elizabethton looks like it has the least missing data with 18 inches of snow recorded on around 1.9 inches of qpf.
  9. John1122
    Regionally in February 1998 Jackson Kentucky had a 12 inch snow depth with 18.6 inches falling on around 2 inches of liquid. Somerset Kentucky had a 14 inch snow depth, no report on what fell with around 2.1 inches of liquid. I had a 17 inch snow depth with 2.5 inches of liquid. West of me there were 20 inch depths in Scott Co and Fentress Co. Crossville had a 10 inch depth with 13 inches falling on around 2.5 inches of liquid but there was some rain in Crossville. Allardt had a 17 inch snow depth with 2.7 inches of liquid. Jamestown had a 20 inch snow depth on 2.4 inches of liquid. Cookeville is listed with 3 inches of liquid but no snow depth. Though that is likely missing data as we have eye witness reports of 12+ inches there. Elevations above 3000 feet in my area had 30+ inches. More snow volume fell in this storm than any other in my lifetime. But it was much wetter than the blizzard so the depth wasn't as great. Widespread power outages. So odd that there were two monsters like that in East Tennessee in a short period. My cousin was about to graduate from ETSU during the first event there, I was pretty jealous of the snowfall he experienced, not knowing I'd get the same soon after.
  10. John1122
    It's the one that hit here but their snow map was off into Tennessee. I'm pretty sure it was a very plateau/eastern rim and points north event. Dynamic cooling with heavy heavy snow. 16-24 inches across Campbell/Scott/Fentress areas and 8-14 across the highland rim. Daniel Boone will know more about if Claiborne got in on it.
  11. John1122
    I had 2 inches of snow from that system and almost 2 inches of rain. Temps were marginal. 38/31. As usual, Wise Va was the big winner in the region with 4.5 inches. January 94 had about 3 weeks of cold/snowy/icy weather depending on where you were located. There was a major winter storm on January 17th. If I remember correctly from Tri to Knox to Crossville to Nashville had some pretty big ice with 2-3 inches of snow on top of it. It stayed snow here and across Southern Kentucky with 6-10 inches falling. I can remember watching channel 6 news and Knoxville was a skating rink and my area had massive snowflakes falling. It had been frigid in the days leading up to it and the ground was frozen brick solid. Potent cold front passage with it, temps fell 20 degrees in an hour or two. temps were in the 10s below 0 across a lot of the area after the front passed over the snow/ice cover. Temps stayed cold for the next week after and the snow stayed on the ground for around 8-10 days. After the January cold, February was pretty warm. Which as we know is par for the course here, we often manage 4-5 weeks of cold and 4-5 weeks of warm in certain winters.
  12. John1122
    It would be truly great to reel that look in. -EPO, +PNA, -AO and at least not a hostile NAO that looks like it could be going towards something good. Should be a decent look for clippers and northern stream stuff too.
  13. John1122
    A prime pattern as we enter the heart of winter is about all you can hope for in a given year. Looks like we are going to have that for a portion or maybe even all of the January 15th-February 15th window. Today was pretty chilly, 36 for the high, gonna be in the 10s tonight. Hopefully we can step down from here. Though normally in El Nino years we don't go full ice box with well below 0 temps, when the pattern is right, especially in the pacific, we can pile up snow while only being a little below normal. 2009-10 I had around 40 inches of snow and I don't recall getting below 0. Yet snow was on the ground for 40 days or something because it never got above 40 consistently during that time.
  14. John1122
    The whole Cuonzo mess makes me want to beat Missouri almost as much as Kentucky these days. Especially the sports writers who proclaimed UT basketball dead. The fact was Cuonzo was offered a 500k raise and still left. He's never stayed anywhere more than 3 years yet.
  15. John1122
    I posted wondering which would happen first, who knew it'd be a tie? Cheney is a good coach, we couldn't win games his first time here, but he built a high scoring offense. Just couldn't stop anyone and lost shoot out games. If Pruitt can build a defense around his offense UT should be much improved in the coming years.
  16. John1122
    That should once again be a big hitter by the FV3. It seems good with placement of features but not sure how good it will be with mesoscale details. Hopefully very good but it struggled with them in December. Was amazing at the 500mb and 850mb features though.
  17. John1122
    The EPS is more bullish than the OP. That's an impressive mean.
  18. John1122
    Pretty close to the Friday night system and it's looking better and better for especially western areas to see several inches of snow as I'm currently putting a lot more faith in the Euro than the other suites right now. It's been pretty consistent with 2-3 inches for Nashville and more west and north of Nashville. Not sure how much to trust the FV3 at all, hopefully it runs at 18 since it skipped 12, but the 06 was a 3-4 inch front end thump for my area on the more reasonable snow maps. GFS data issues are more concerning to me than they normally would be, though it's showing the best solution for mby, I tend more to side with the Euro still. Probably not a bad idea to start a thread if tonight's runs stay consistent, so this one can stay more focused on the medium to longer term.
  19. John1122
    While reading an article about the shutdown effecting accuracy of the current weather forecasts, I came across this article talking about a new IBM weather model they claim is 200 percent more accurate than others. I'm not sure if it is something that is/will be available to the public or what.
  20. John1122
    The Euro was pretty nice for the northwestern part of the region. It snows across the state but it's losing it's punch and getting into daylight hours as it gets east of the Plateau. Nashville get 2-3 inches, Clarksville gets 3-5 probably with 4-6 in NWTN/SWKY. Plateau gets 1-2, SEKY does as well and so does SWVA. Slim pickings most other areas. 1 inch or less. A nice wall of heavy snow is working across the state then I assume it transfers to the coast because the precip dies off. When more arrives it's mostly warmed enough to rain. The Euro is definitely the most consistent of the models at this point.
  21. John1122
    Half of Clemson's team are guys that wanted to be at UT but Butch failed to close the deal with them.
  22. John1122
    It honestly looks like classic GFS to me. I do not expect the high to be that strong. One of its biases seems to be to have highs 2 or 3 mb stronger a few days out than they verify, sometimes more. The FV3 seems to be having the same bias.
  23. John1122
    On one of those crazy FV3 runs the other day it phased 3 pieces.
  24. John1122
    Probably but I believe the track of the low would be more suppressed with the cold being deeper here. There's some -30f air associated with that high. You'd think it would have pretty free reign on the west side of the Apps.
  25. John1122
    I'd take this look all day. No way that LP is that far north imo with a 1045 high right over the top of it.
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