Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,751

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The 12z Euro Control dropped the hammer with that wave.
  2. John1122
    00z hi-res, the 3K NAM and RGEM looked better for more of us than the 12K NAM. The 3k is down right aggressive in some areas even outside of elevation. I assume it's trying to guess as mesoscale bands that drop heavier stuff.
  3. John1122
    Elevation makes massive differences across the area. 2800 should see accumulation for sure. Even 2 or 3 hundred feet is night and day at times though. 3000 is a magic number there it seems because MRX uses it frequently. I know that above 3000 in my area sees a significant amount more than 2500. There are also places that are much better for upslope than others and those even vary based on the angle of the wind. Hopefully your cabin is located in a favorable spot.
  4. John1122
    UKMet temperatures during that band Holston posted. It's easy to spot the Plateau/Mountains on it. Being 32 or below would aid immensely for any of us hoping for accumulating snow in this kind of warm ground set up.
  5. John1122
    I got under one of those one night and got 6 inches of snow in 3 hours with a temp in the lower 20s.
  6. John1122
    Middle Tennessee has looked better than most areas of the state that aren't mountainous throughout. You don't have to deal with any downsloping really like the eastern valley areas.
  7. John1122
    What an odd run of the Euro. 138 there's a southern system running along the Gulf coast. The primary goes from the Texas coast to the Florida coast then seems to jump from Panama City to Arkansas where it sits for 18 hours pounding Oklahoma.
  8. John1122
    Marginal differences towards the 72 timeframe vs 84 at 12z. Low is in western New York, 992 vs 990 at 12z. Overall snow showers across the eastern 2/3rds of the state. The low moves slower this run and the change to frozen happens later across our area. The low does a loop in New York this run instead of moving into SW Ontario like it did at 12z. This keeps the upslope more towards SW Virginia a little longer than 12z did. Looks like it's going to be Plateau and mountains getting 1+ inch accumulations with less in most lower elevations. Overall it backed off a little in both areas vs 12z.
  9. John1122
    Through 60 it's weaker, more west and warmer vs 12z.
  10. John1122
    Unfortunately by h54 it runs due north instead of more northeast like it did at 12z.
  11. John1122
    The Euro is about 90 miles south through 48 hours. Some frozen starting to pop in SW Missouri.
  12. John1122
    Snow amounts did tick up in the 00z suite so far. If I were guessing I'd say an inch or two may fall in some non elevated areas of Middle Tennessee especially, but it'll be hard to have more than a heavy dusting to 1/2 inch on the grass the further west you are due to time of day and warm ground temps. Right now I'm just hoping to see something and hopefully it's not the best event of winter.
  13. John1122
    If you're in a favorable upslope area you're probably going to score regardless. Above 4000 will be rocking, I'd say LeConte will rack up 10+ inches. They are the upslope capital of the south.
  14. John1122
    The Canadian is pretty insistent for this event being decent to great for Middle Tennessee. It's just tough to trust with synoptic details, especially when it's sort of on an island.
  15. John1122
    The 1950 storm featured snow on one side and rain on the other. That particular model run featured snow way down here but rain on every side of the storm otherwise. It ended up being the only run that showed that solution.
  16. John1122
    The Canadian is the most consistent model. The GFS moved the track 400ish miles in the past 24 hours. The NAM is further east than either model but it's the late run NAM. If I were making a guess none are right right now but the track will probably be somewhere in their window. The GFS was the least snowy model, the NAM looked like it was going to be healthy for the Northern midstate. The Canadian is friendly to that area too.
  17. John1122
    18z suite generally agrees with earlier runs. Looking more like elevated areas are probably going to be it for accumulation but there may be flakes in the air for a much wider area. The models haven't resolved their issues outside of 36-48 hours that were prevalent the last two years. Especially the ensemble means. Backside events rarely work very well. Models almost always over do moisture associated with them. Looks like that's going to end up being the case again with this event. If I can go out and see snow falling, that's a win these days.
  18. John1122
    After the last three years it's basically don't trust a model if it is showing accumulating snow at any point. You'd be right 95 percent of the time doing just that.
  19. John1122
    That snow map has always been off. My dad always said that the snow was over the bumpers of cars during that event. So I think it underestimates totals almost across the board.
  20. John1122
    The Canadian just destroyed Arkansas and West Tennessee that run on wave 2. I imagine our western Valley folks would cash in on that 10-12 inch event for the whole winter.
  21. John1122
    Here you go.
  22. John1122
    My leaves have been gone for weeks. Most of them besides Oak and black gum were gone before Halloween. I was surprised a couple weekends ago when it was still full fall on the ETSU campus and surrounding areas.
  23. John1122
    The ICON only goes out to 120 hours at 18z and it looks like Tennessee would be under the comma head from the system. It's pouring snow on the Plateau/Eastern Rim as the LP is moving across NC at the end of the run. We finally saw a rain to accumulating snow event work out last December. They had been common for most of my life before the 2000s but have gotten rare since.
  24. John1122
    It's a tough one for MRX, as much of the modeling is showing significant accumulation differences in the central/south valley areas with the Euro going in for even the valley area and the Canadian and GFS showing the classic valley wedge from Chattanooga to Knoxville.
  25. John1122
    The Canadian Ens are just beefy for the next two weeks outside of far western areas. Really big for the mid-state and east areas, Kentucky and SWVA.
×
×
  • Create New...