EasternLI

The QBO has been a focal point of investigation in recent years. This upcoming season, La Nina + EQBO, is pretty interesting wrt the MJO. Here's a couple relevant points from the following article. Combined effect of the QBO and ENSO on the MJO: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2019.1588064 For each La Niña/QBOE year (Figure 3(c)), there are 1.7 MJO events, which is much larger than that in an El Niño year and La Niña/QBOW year. The last phase has only 0.6 MJO events (Figure 3(d)). During a La Niña/QBOE year, the MJO can propagate to the western Pacific without being suppressed over the Maritime Continent. During a La Niña/QBOW year, the existing MJO is observed to be enhanced over the Indian Ocean, while it is barely able to pass the Maritime Continent (Figure 3(d)).

East of the Maritime Continent is good, actually. Hopefully it stays that way.

What a terrible map. Smoke everywhere.

Wow

PDS for that one too.

Tornado warning in Philly.

Radar lighting up now. Should be interesting.

Mt. Holly radar is pretty nuts.

00z Ukie looks very similar to yesterday's 12z run.

I thought this damn thing was discontinued lol. Apparently not

12z Ukie

Ooof 00z Euro

Is it still having trouble organizing.....

Sunrise over Ida.

Really taking off around the center right now.

IR satellite showing pretty definitive warming in the eye over the last several minutes as well.

Yeah, nice explanation of frictional convergence here: https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/844/

Here's a short description of what that's showing exactly, for those unfamiliar. The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot.