EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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I appreciate your thinking. My only real hope moving forward is that we do not see some late season SSW. Which would just mean an utterly lousy spring at that point. I'll pass on that. Otherwise, I'm not overly sure how things unfold exactly yet. It's a fascinating year, even though snow totals have been lousy so far.
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Well if a very deep western trough shows up, there's going to be no shot at snow. So patterns are discussed. Rightfully so. None of those fine details would matter one bit. See December. Option B is zero discussion, which seems a bit odd on a discussion board. Or we can discuss shoes.
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Yeah, we're talking about a western trough, but it's not determined how deep that would be. Simply that it's a favored feature at this time as February begins. Variations matter. Regardless, like it or not, there's a couple snow threats before then as well.
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Preferably, in my humble opinion, if we do see a deep western trough again. I'd rather we didn't have a concurrent negative NAO this time. That just puts us in compression purgatory again like December. I'd prefer to just let the SE ridge allow some warmer weather in here. But we have no control, so we monitor.
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NAO is a different animal. I don't trust models beyond the regular ensembles. The NAO can be forced in different ways. It's the most unpredictable domain. Need to take that one week at a time. Especially considering it has shown up already this year.
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Tropical convection on guidance currently is supportive of the Western trough showing up. So we probably will get to see how it plays out. That looks real this time as advertised.
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It's really impressive. I mean, the pressure wave from the blast is being recorded all over the place. Some flooding is hitting the west coast too.
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You're probably right. I'm not familiar with these things. I want to try to dig into some research on it sometime soon. Just to have a better understanding myself. It's interesting. I wasn't thinking of specific effects. I just imagine there could be some sort of effects from this.
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Personally, I'd much rather be looking at a situation where something is shown OTS at this range. Maybe that would actually work out for us in the end. Instead of being shown as a hit right now but ultimately end up over Pittsburgh.
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Ok, seems to be an unknown for the time being. However, something higher than vei 2 cannot be ruled out. It's all speculation for now. Something interesting to monitor for sure. Good thread here.
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Interesting. I really don't know too much about these things. I definitely want to look into this a little deeper.
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Heh, this is probably going to have an effect eventually. Most powerful stratospheric volcanic eruption in quite some time.
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Nobody is counting on anything. I merely posted ensemble guidance output. It's a period of interest nothing more. Not everything works out. Even in the very best patterns one could dream about. I do believe we've said that in here numerous times. Simply identifying a period of interest should not draw out frustration of previous events. That's forecasting based on emotion. Not all situations are the same. But I totally understand the reason for the feeling.
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Volcano goes boom. Big time.
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Next weekend is still on the radar. Let's see how we can get this one to track into Cleveland
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06z NAM has winds of 70+kts at 925mb take a tour of Long Island. Let's not mix that down too effectively please. -
Eversourse takes the cake. Easily. I've spent some time in connecticut.
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This picture of Bigfoot hitching a ride on the Loch Ness monster with a UFO watching could provide insight.
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That trailing vort has been trending stronger. That's going to be something to watch on models over the weekend. How that plays out.
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I'm actually still pretty interested in this. Even with no shot of snow IMBY. It's still going to be an anomalous storm system. The wind aspect is a bit troubling if it can mix down efficiently. I hope you folks in the interior can get some front end snow out of it though too. Even though the setup is, let's say, less than ideal.
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Haha it's just all in good fun. Nothing more. Seemed like an appropriate time.
