EasternLI

Just an absolute monster -PNA for months on end... Someone should inform the CPC.

The timing of the potential is a nice aspect when you think about it. Just as winter climo is getting more and more favorable. Its one of the reasons I have been interested in this since the beginning of the thread. We'll see how it goes, maybe it all falls apart, but there's no sign of that happening currently IMHO.

One of the eps clusters puts a very strong ridge over Greenland at the end of the run now. All of the clusters have the TPV very unhappy late. Fantasy land of course but that signal seems to be growing recently.

Strongly agree with the bolded. They seemed to constructively interfere with each other. Nice post. It's very interesting following these events this year. I'm excited to see how the atmosphere responds to the events from the 21st forward. Which seems to coincide with the NAO building around that time on guidance.

Just an interesting casual observation of the ensembles pattern late in the run. Check out this 500mb composite, from the following paper. Evaluating the Joint Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD030771 Some interesting similarities between one of those and the pattern starting to emerge at the end of ensemble runs recently.

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully the symptoms stay mild and disappear quickly. Feel better

Another new paper on the QBO - MJO relationship. Reiterating the importance of considering the QBO along with the MJO.

I'm not seeing it being much of a problem on current guidance. Always have to lookout for things like that though, for sure. There's some activity by the Maritime Continent now. However upper level subsidence is forecast to start growing in the Indian Ocean. This is actually beginning already. Which will start pushing east and start putting a damper on activity there, slowly. The wave is intact already east of this area.

Did you move to the panhandle of Texas recently? Congrats !!

I see a lot of assumptions about the MJO on the EPS using the RMM charts. It was not dying out on the 00z run. Use those at your own risk. It's modeled to start pushing east, slowly, starting on the 21st. That date has been solid for some time now. There have been no changes there. We'll see what happens, just need to keep watching trends. I see no cause for concern yet.

It's also very slow moving. So models could be rushing things. There's always concerns. Even if we were looking at a great pattern, there would still be concerns. Nothing is a lock with this stuff.

I thought he wanted one sentence J/k

The way I view it, the la nina is driving the indices. The MJO mixes that up. Not always, but has the ability. So you can get a better sense of where things could be headed. This is a great graphic.

I'm not seeing that. Not at this time.

Just starting to nudge into phase 8 now at the end of the ensembles. Barely. Makes sense that those changes starting at the end would be related. The hope is for continuing propagation to be advertised. Along with continuing improvement to the pattern. I'm not going to worry about a pattern change after the pattern change that hasn't even set up completely yet. We'll cross that bridge when we can see it in the distance.

Grabbed this from NOAA's MJO update. 850 VP and wind anomalies. These are phases 6, 7, 8. Looks phase 7 like getting close to 8 at the very end?

This is just a really nice example of a 50/50 low on the 6z gefs after Christmas.

No, not at all. It would be far worse if it was in the central Pacific. That was a welcome development.

Yikes Not good.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this la Niña taking on an east based look is playing an important role. Impacts of two types of La Niña on the NAO during boreal winter https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z As a response to the EP La Niña, the North Atlantic (NA)–Western European (WE) region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe. However, the CP La Niña has a roughly opposing impact on the NA–WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over Western Europe.

I agree with that but I think we need a catalyst. Such as a TC/Typhoon. Which is what I believe is a good manifestation of that. There is some activity in that area currently. It's also one reason why the RMM plots look whacky sometimes.

Modeling is not very good with the MJO. That's why I've been leaning very heavily on the science instead of models. Which is proving very useful so far. I'm more happy about that than anything else. We just need to observe at this point and follow trends but so far so good.

We're seeing adjustments to ridging pushing into Greenland quicker. Which, I wasn't really expecting so soon TBH. Great to see though, obviously. MJO is crawling on the VP 200 charts. Don't really see it in phase 8 yet through the end of their runs, at least on those charts. Still phase 7. Getting really close though towards the end. More so on EPS than GEFS actually. Could be why we're seeing a slight improvement towards the end of those runs. Fascinating to watch all of this unfold.

The 00z EPS clusters punted the idea that they were once showing for the 21st. However, all of them now have something near the area for Christmas day lol.